hurricanes1234 wrote:galaxy401 wrote:hurricanes1234 wrote:Monstrously intense tropical cyclone - second strongest of 2013 so far - Category 5 on Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Winds: 1-min sustained 140 knots (~160 mph\260 km/h)
Minimum central pressure: 918 mbar
Is that the IMD, JTWC, or Dvorak that has this intensity?
JTWC.
yup that's JTWC...expected to intensify to 145 knots!!!
WTIO31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.7N 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.0N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
plus a lengthy remarks
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 87.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SLIGHTLY-
CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC EYE, APPROXIMATELY 9 NM IN DIAMETER, WITH
MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING OUT FROM THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE 11/0000Z-11/1345Z MORPHED INTEGRATED MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AT CIMSS (MIMIC) ANIMATION PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE NEWLY FORMED EYEWALL HAS CONSOLIDATED AND ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FOUR DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO
10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST AFTER TAU 24.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER
LANDFALL, TC PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 56
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
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