BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#201 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:29 pm

Oh boy. JTWC landfall around 140- 145kts.

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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#202 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:47 pm

Using the latest OSCAT pass, I measured the size of the 35kt wind field at about twice that on the latest JTWC advisory (180nm vs. 90nm).
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#203 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:57 pm

Image

Latest infrared
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#204 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:New IMD forecast is out. They estimate Dvorak of 6.0 and 105 kts. From what I've heard, they don't think the standard Dvorak estimates apply to the BoB. Looks closer to 7.5 to me (150 kts).

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf


Because a TC at 90 east behaves much differently then one at 120 east.
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#205 Postby Airboy » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:03 pm

Ehm... is this not a bit... strange?

"The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted wind speeds of 210-220 km/hr at the time of landfall, but resisted upgrading tropical storm Phailin from a 'Very Severe Cyclone' to a 'Super Cyclone'."

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/phail ... e/1181386/
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#206 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:09 pm

Surge to 3 meters? Thats worse than the low wind forecast IMO.
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#207 Postby Airboy » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:15 pm

RL3AO wrote:Surge to 3 meters? Thats worse than the low wind forecast IMO.


With the direction and the angle of the coast it will be bad.
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#208 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:36 pm

another eyewall replacement is starting. But likely has started too late

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#209 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:10 pm

it's very rare to have a category 5 in the BOB so i am quite surprised...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 pm

I'd be shocked if the storm surge is under 20 feet, with 25 feet or more not out of the question. Intensity looks to be about 150 kt, back there after weakening in the ERC.
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#211 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 pm

11/2030 UTC 17.2N 86.8E T7.0/7.0 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#212 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:20 pm

WOW!
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#213 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:21 pm

Hearing some surface observation or special plane on Twitter measured a pressure of 883mb. That would be the lowest ever in the Indian Ocean...
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#214 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:22 pm

just the 2nd category 5 this year ...

Super Typhoon Usagi...
Cyclone Phailin...
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#215 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:22 pm

what tweet?
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#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:30 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1310111800

Source of the measurement (actually 884mb).
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#217 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:31 pm

satellite estimate. Not an observation
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#218 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:31 pm


The eye is warming and expanding, may get to WMG status yields a DT of 7.5 just before landfall
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#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:41 pm

It's been trending north too, which is bad since that is more heavily populated...
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#220 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:47 pm

This is truly a stunning tropical cyclone! Never thought I would even see a fully fledged Category 5 in the Bay of Bengal, this is almost the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in November. As far as its 918 mbar pressure, that alone is rarely achieved even in the WPAC, so far less for how rare it is in one of the least active basins on Earth. Seems almost unrealistic.

:shocked!:
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