BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#221 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:58 pm

euro6208 wrote:just the 2nd category 5 this year ...

Super Typhoon Usagi...
Cyclone Phailin...


Do you know what the average number of cat 5's per year is? (just asking; I don't know) :)
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#222 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:23 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1613
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#223 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:33 pm

will Phailin be just the 2nd or 3rd cat 5 to make landfall over the Indian subcontinent??
Typhoon/Super cyclonic storm Gay(1989) was a cat 5 at landfall... I don't know if the Odisha cyclone(1999) was a cat 5 or a high-end cat 4 at landfall.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#224 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:35 pm

mrbagyo wrote:will Phailin be just the 2nd or 3rd cat 5 to make landfall over the Indian subcontinent??
Typhoon/Super cyclonic storm Gay(1989) was a cat 5 at landfall... I don't know if the Odisha cyclone(1999) was a cat 5 or a high-end cat 4 at landfall.

High-end Cat4 135kt
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#225 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:39 pm

Sun is up over there. Here's one of the first visible and first rgb images. In the RGB image looks like stadium effect in the eye, maybe, Hurakan?

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#226 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:41 pm

Image

oh yeah, ozonepete !!
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#227 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:45 pm

:uarrow: Oh, yeah, wow! So great to see on satellite what we learned in theory classes: The warm air from the latent heat of condensation in the tremendous thunderstorm updrafts in the eyewall at mid and higher levels rises and expands as it feeds into the eye , thus making the eye larger at higher altitudes. Edited this to be more clear.
Last edited by ozonepete on Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#228 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:47 pm

Image

beautiful EWRC .. the inner core still looks quite potent
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#229 Postby ozonepete » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:52 pm

Yup. The EWRC will never get much further than it is now - the outer ring outside the current eyewall is too far away and will never have time to constrict inward before this hits land. Unfortunately that means this should not weaken before landfall. Surely going to be devastating at the coast and quite a ways inland.
0 likes   

User avatar
Zanthe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Age: 24
Joined: Sat May 26, 2012 9:26 pm
Location: New Castle, PA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#230 Postby Zanthe » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:24 pm

@Hal_Needham: Cyclone #Phailin air pressure down to 883mb. Lowest landfall air pressure in U.S. was 892 in 1935 Labor Day Hurricane


No link for where he got this, but totally believable.
0 likes   
I'm no expert, everything I say should be taken with a large amount of salt. I could easily be very, very wrong.
~Zanthe Go Coyotes~

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#231 Postby stormkite » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:35 pm

Image


Nature
Last edited by stormkite on Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:43 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#232 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:35 pm

Zanthe wrote:
@Hal_Needham: Cyclone #Phailin air pressure down to 883mb. Lowest landfall air pressure in U.S. was 892 in 1935 Labor Day Hurricane


No link for where he got this, but totally believable.

If you go by unoffical estimate, Typhoon Zeb had the lowest landfall pressure of 872mb per JTWC best track

That tweet is certainly unreliable anyway
0 likes   

User avatar
summersquall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:23 am
Location: Jensen Beach FL 27°N 80°W (roughly)

#233 Postby summersquall » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:01 pm

Image
Wow.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9925
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#234 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:26 pm

Intensification wobbles apparent on that loop.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#235 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:31 pm

Image

masterful
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#236 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:40 pm

Ok you've beat me :P :uarrow:

Here is another view

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
FireRat
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 477
Age: 31
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 11:38 pm
Location: Central NC

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#237 Postby FireRat » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:41 pm

What a beast! This seems like India's perfect storm. I shudder to think about the monstrous surge this cyclone will produce along the coast of landfall. :eek:
0 likes   
Lightning does strike Twice.

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3421
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#238 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:51 pm

Prior to Phailin, only four Category 5 cyclones have been observed in the Bay of Bengal.

1989 Cyclone Gay 140KT (landfall 140KT)
Image

1991 Cyclone 2B 140KT (landfall 135KT)
Image

1999 Cyclone 5B (Orissa Cyclone) 140KT (landfall 135KT)
Image

2007 Cyclone Sidr 140KT (landfall 130KT)
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
summersquall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:23 am
Location: Jensen Beach FL 27°N 80°W (roughly)

#239 Postby summersquall » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:07 pm

"Phailin, described in Met department bulletins as a "very severe cylonic storm" approaching with wind speed of 210-220 km per hour, is likely to make landfall around 5.00-5.30 pm on Saturday, with the region up to 5-10 km from the coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, bearing the brunt."... but

Foreign agencies claimed Indian authorities are underestimating Phailin, quoting London-based Tropical Storm and US Navy's joint typhoon warning centre as forecasting winds up to 315 kmph.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 993334.cms
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 26984
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#240 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:19 pm

The time for evacuation is over. It is likely tropical storm force winds are onshore now...
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests