BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3098
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#241 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:00 am

Cat 5 landfall seems unlikely

TXIO24 KNES 120252
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 17.8N

D. 86.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2154Z 17.2N 86.6E SSMI


...RAMIREZ
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15369
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#242 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:02 am

the eye isn't as clear as before...i think it's weakening slightly...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
summersquall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 230
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 11:23 am
Location: Jensen Beach FL 27°N 80°W (roughly)

#243 Postby summersquall » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:14 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15369
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#244 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:17 am

supercane4867 wrote:Cat 5 landfall seems unlikely

TXIO24 KNES 120252
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 12/0230Z

C. 17.8N

D. 86.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5
AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

11/2154Z 17.2N 86.6E SSMI


...RAMIREZ



the eye isn't as clear as before and cloud tops have significantly weaken...maybe a strong category 4 landfall in a few hours...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15369
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#245 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:22 am

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC
WALL OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A
112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN
RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND THIS STR, MAKING LANDFALL
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST, ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ERC MAY HAMPER ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 12, A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS LAND
INTERACTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE SYSTEM WITH MORE RAPID EROSION AFTER
LANDFALL, LEADING TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#246 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:52 am

it still looks quite good on meteosat. MTSAT is useless at this point as it is at the western edge of its range.

That said, the EWRC is starting. Don't expect it to do much though as the outer eyewall will be onshore soon
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4539
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#247 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:13 am

Alyono wrote:it still looks quite good on meteosat. MTSAT is useless at this point as it is at the western edge of its range.

That said, the EWRC is starting. Don't expect it to do much though as the outer eyewall will be onshore soon


Well said, Alyono. Here's an excerpt from the latest JTWC discussion:

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SYMMETRIC WALL OF DEEP ONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A 112154Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE AND ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER BROKEN RING OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THAT, WHICH MAY BE INDICATING ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#248 Postby stormkite » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:28 am

Noaa has it at.

2013OCT12 070000 7.0 919.1 140.0 6.4 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON FLG -22.56 -73.03 EYE 16
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15369
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#249 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:02 am

02B PHAILIN 131012 0600 18.0N 85.8E IO 130 926

Weakens to a category 4 with 130 knots winds...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3421
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#250 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:04 am

Does anybody know if this will be making landfall at high tide or low tide?
0 likes   

User avatar
beoumont
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 421
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#251 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:05 am

euro6208 wrote:REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS . MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS
56 FEET.


"Only" 56 foot waves?
0 likes   
List of 78 tropical cyclones intercepted :
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15369
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#252 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:08 am

eye continues to be less distinct...weakening until landfall likely..
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#253 Postby stormkite » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:43 am

http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/


Live tv coverage india
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 946
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#254 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Oct 12, 2013 5:19 am

FY-2D Full Disk loop.
Image
Please note I created this enhanced satellite loop.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

User avatar
Annie Oakley
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1099
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 12:54 pm
Location: Texas

#255 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Oct 12, 2013 5:43 am

Ohhhhh........God be with them


Phailin on Course to Devastate India This Weekend
India is expected to suffer catastrophic impacts from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin on Saturday and Saturday night.

Destructive winds well over 160 kph (100 mph) and flooding rain of at least 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) is expected across a wide area. There will be a crippling storm surge of 4-6 meters (14-20 feet), as well as wind gusts over 300 kph, near the landfall point of Phailin which is expected across northeastern India Saturday morning EDT.

Anyone residing in the states of Orissa or eastern Andhra Pradesh is encouraged to take proper precautions and prepare for life-threatening conditions.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... 1/18611884
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#256 Postby stormkite » Sat Oct 12, 2013 5:58 am

0 likes   

User avatar
Crostorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2058
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
Location: Croatia-Europe
Contact:

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#257 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:07 am

sorry
Last edited by Crostorm on Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 272
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

#258 Postby Airboy » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:56 am

"Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, India"

Edit: Maybe a too early statement, some are still saying "1-2 hours".
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 273
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: Richardson, TX

Re:

#259 Postby Iune » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:13 am

Airboy wrote:"Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, India"

Edit: Maybe a too early statement, some are still saying "1-2 hours".

Based on the apparent motion, Phailin seems to be approaching a landfall near Gopalpur, Orissa (which was where the IMD was forecasting yesterday) rather than in Srikakulam. Anyway, I hope it doesn't make landfall in Srikakulum--my cousins live there :(
0 likes   
Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012

User avatar
beoumont
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 421
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#260 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:14 am

Looks like eyewall recplacement might be completing just at it slows and comes ashore. Not good!
0 likes   
List of 78 tropical cyclones intercepted :
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests