BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#261 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:18 am

02B PHAILIN 131012 1200 18.7N 85.3E IO 120 933

down to 120 knots...
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#262 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:29 am

Image

latest radar image
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#263 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:24 am

REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE FOR TC 02B HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA AND HAS RECENTLY BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
HAS DECREASED AS INTERACTION WITH THE COAST HAS DISRUPTED THE
INFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE
TRACK OF TC 02B AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
QUICKLY START TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
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#264 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:29 am

Wait, I'm confused, has it made landfall yet?
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#265 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:36 am

possible eyewall replacement cycle started.
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#266 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:42 am

It seems that it is still just offshore and weakening. May weaken to a Cat 3 before landfall. (Still incredibly dangerous though!!!)
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#267 Postby gates2u » Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:15 am

Times of India blog is giving very good minute by minute updates here:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cyclone-phailin-in-odhisha-andhra-pradesh/liveblog/24035906.cms
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Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#268 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:20 am

Night landfall near Gopalpur/Brahmapur from what I can figure.



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#269 Postby Zanthe » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:01 pm

English link for live news out of India.

http://www.ndtv.com/video/live/channel/ndtv24x7
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#270 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:47 pm

Gopalpur reportedly had a 936mb pressure, then a wind shift and a slight pressure rise before the station failed. If that was a near-central pressure, then the actual central pressure was likely around 928mb at landfall. That would probably support an intensity around 110 kt.
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#271 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Gopalpur reportedly had a 936mb pressure, then a wind shift and a slight pressure rise before the station failed. If that was a near-central pressure, then the actual central pressure was likely around 928mb at landfall. That would probably support an intensity around 110 kt.



JTWC's landfall intensity is very close to those readings...120 knot sustained and 933mb pressure...
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#272 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:20 pm

I'm really interested in what the surge measures will be.
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Re: BOB : Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#273 Postby beoumont » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:35 pm

Landfall on Microwave:

Image

Here's a link to the loop: but keep in mind it is time-sensitive -

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_02B/webManagerIR/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html
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#274 Postby Dave C » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:41 pm

The eyewall looked pretty good at landfall with that radar site quite a distance from the landfall point about 225 kilometers away!
Last edited by Dave C on Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#275 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:42 pm

Image

microwave image at landfall
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Re: BOB : Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#276 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:01 pm

Eyewall hit on the small village of Ganjam at the mouth of the Rushikulya River. Should be some stories from there. Double impact of the eyewall hit and ensuing floods that drain back down the river.


(Edit: Microwave image might be displaced slightly NE meaning real landfall was closer to Gopalpur)
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Re: BOB : Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#277 Postby Macrocane » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:06 pm

Triplets in the eastern hemisphere:

Image
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#278 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:39 pm

As for the landfall intensity? I would personally go with 110 kt. But the storm surge is the greatest fear...
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Re: BOB : Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#279 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:42 pm

Macrocane wrote:Triplets in the eastern hemisphere:

Image


GFS 1 week ago...
Image
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#280 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:21 pm

Have we heard how bad it was there yet?
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