BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

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Re: BOB : Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#281 Postby FireRat » Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:46 pm

I've been watching the live coverage from India on the awesome link that Zanthe posted, Thanks Zanthe btw! :)

They are currently broadcasting the early morning hour footage from India, showing some of the aftermath. Currently there are some reports that state 3 people have died in Odisha due to the storm, other reports say 7 died. Parts of coastal Odisha are without power, Andhra thankfully reports "no casualties" as of yet, just damages considered "extensive". There has also been extensive crop damage in some parts. From what I could tell in the video of the aftermath, there was significant tree damage and damage to roofs and some buildings the like of what you would see from Category 2 or 3 storms. So far, I haven't seen reports on the surge, it looks like the worst case scenario may not have played out. Hopefully that is the case, but we still won't know for sure until much later.

That's all I've seen and heard from the region so far.
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Re: BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#282 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:33 am

First reports are saying the evacuations got people out from in front and the cyclone wasn't as strong on landfall as feared.
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Re: BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#283 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:20 pm

Here is a discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about how the India authorities worked the whole situation and avoided a big tragedy.

A victory for India's cyclone evacuation and preparation efforts
While we have yet to hear from the worst affected area, the town of Gopalpur in Odisha where the eye of Phailin came ashore, it is clear that India has avoided a humanitarian mega-disaster like occurred in October 1999, when the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone killed nearly 10,000 people in the same region of the county. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters.
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#284 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:50 pm

Image

maybe the smaller continental shelf on the right-front quadrant of Phailin reduced the storm surge compared to the larger continental shelf on the right-front quadrant of the 1999 Cyclone.
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#285 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:21 pm

HURAKAN wrote:https://scontent-b-mia.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/1393951_628775063811621_1010358263_n.jpg

maybe the smaller continental shelf on the right-front quadrant of Phailin reduced the storm surge compared to the larger continental shelf on the right-front quadrant of the 1999 Cyclone.


It is possible, but the larger size of Phailin would have at least countered that. Clearly, the Indian authorities did an amazing job.
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#286 Postby RL3AO » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:35 pm

While the IMD is open to criticism on their initial intensities, clearly the Indian government deserves credit for learning from past storms (in particular the 1999 cyclone) when it came to evacuations.
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Re: BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#287 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:13 am

Had to pass along one of the more ignorant statements I've ever heard by a member of the media. While watching the CNN-India coverage of Phailin's landfall yesterday, the "meteorologist" pointed to the error cone and said something to this effect: "See how the cone widens as the storm moves inland? This means that Phailin's damage area will expand and become much larger as it moves farther inland."

It always amazes me how little the general public understand the 5-year error cone. Possibly only 1-2 percent appear to have a clue. Most think the cone represents an area of damaging wind/rain/surge, and if they're outside the cone then they are OK. I really think it's time to do away with the cone. The error cone causes more confusion than it helps anyone.
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Re:

#288 Postby madness » Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:42 am

RL3AO wrote:While the IMD is open to criticism on their initial intensities, clearly the Indian government deserves credit for learning from past storms (in particular the 1999 cyclone) when it came to evacuations.


It appears that IMD use 10-min sustained winds and 1-min gusts.
This is different to JTWC and may explain some of the discrepancy.

But, this is confusing and the average person could be confused by all the jargon
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Re: Re:

#289 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:20 am

madness wrote:
RL3AO wrote:While the IMD is open to criticism on their initial intensities, clearly the Indian government deserves credit for learning from past storms (in particular the 1999 cyclone) when it came to evacuations.


It appears that IMD use 10-min sustained winds and 1-min gusts.
This is different to JTWC and may explain some of the discrepancy.

But, this is confusing and the average person could be confused by all the jargon


It has nothing to do with 10-min vs 1-min. We have the old running joke about the deep depression with an eye from that storm that devastated Myanmar a few years ago.
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Re: BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#290 Postby Iune » Tue Oct 15, 2013 12:19 pm

As far as I know, the IMD uses 3-minute winds for its advisories which normally shouldn't be much different than the JTWC.
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