ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:01 pm

All about the models here.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2351 UTC SUN OCT 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131007 0000 131007 1200 131008 0000 131008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.3W 10.9N 31.2W 11.4N 33.2W
BAMD 9.5N 27.2W 10.4N 29.5W 11.7N 31.6W 13.2N 33.2W
BAMM 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.5W 11.0N 31.5W 11.6N 33.3W
LBAR 9.5N 27.2W 10.5N 29.7W 11.7N 32.2W 13.2N 34.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131009 0000 131010 0000 131011 0000 131012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 35.3W 13.5N 40.9W 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 52.9W
BAMD 14.8N 34.7W 18.4N 37.0W 21.3N 36.3W 20.9N 33.6W
BAMM 12.3N 34.8W 13.6N 38.8W 15.3N 43.3W 17.3N 47.6W
LBAR 14.6N 36.4W 17.0N 39.4W 20.1N 41.7W 22.6N 42.0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby ROCK » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:23 pm

12Z CMC...does develop it...sends it fishing but would help the ACE

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html


18Z NAVGEM- likes it

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

12Z EURO seems to take it up and out also...BTW- I hate these low resolution maps. Remember the good ole days when Alan's site was free...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=216
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:49 am

00Z ECMWF

Octave and Lorenzo

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby blp » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:31 am

The 06z GFS now shows the system making it across and into the central carribean where it dissipates after 264hrs which is a long way out. This is an interesting change. I am not sold on this heading out to see just yet.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100706/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby Riptide » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:49 am

12z GFS ramps this up quite quickly, have not seen anything like this in the short-range this year in the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:58 am

Strong TS after 72HR

lol!!!!!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:07 am

I really wonder what factor made GFS suddenly develops it

Shear doesn't seem going to lessen anytime soon

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#8 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:33 am

Strange run by the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:43 am

Big strong fish that would get plenty of ACE.

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#10 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:11 pm

I'm thinking the GFS just likes being opposite now, it wasn't showing this system too strong until NHC lowered the development chances. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#11 Postby blp » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:55 pm

12z GFS starts closing this off in 30hrs. Looks a little quick to me.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_9.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:26 pm

18z Bams guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1916 UTC MON OCT 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131007 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131007 1800 131008 0600 131008 1800 131009 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 26.7W 9.9N 28.3W 10.4N 30.2W 10.5N 32.2W
BAMD 9.2N 26.7W 10.1N 28.7W 10.9N 30.4W 11.4N 32.0W
BAMM 9.2N 26.7W 9.8N 28.8W 10.3N 30.6W 10.3N 32.3W
LBAR 9.2N 26.7W 9.7N 28.2W 10.4N 30.0W 10.6N 31.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131009 1800 131010 1800 131011 1800 131012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 34.7W 9.2N 39.9W 8.3N 44.9W 8.0N 50.3W
BAMD 11.4N 33.8W 10.8N 37.1W 9.6N 38.9W 9.7N 39.3W
BAMM 9.7N 34.1W 7.4N 37.3W 5.5N 39.4W 5.0N 42.5W
LBAR 10.5N 33.4W 10.1N 37.0W 9.8N 39.7W 10.1N 42.5W
SHIP 50KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 26.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 25.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 24.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby StormTracker » Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:54 pm

:uarrow: Cycloneye, what the ??? I don't think I've ever seen that before where some of the models are off the chart! Bad initialization or just a glitch in the system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:06 pm

StormTracker wrote::uarrow: Cycloneye, what the ??? I don't think I've ever seen that before where some of the models are off the chart! Bad initialization or just a glitch in the system?


The story of this 2013 season in terms of the models has not been so good so I don't know if is a glitch but that is what the bams are tracking in this 18z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#15 Postby blp » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:09 pm

12z Euro is much slower and less sharp on the recurve. It has the recurve around 55W now compared to 50W on 00z. I think some of the models are too quick to recurve this.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#16 Postby StormTracker » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:14 pm

blp wrote:12z Euro is much slower and less sharp on the recurve. It has the recurve around 55W now compared to 50W on 00z. I think some of the models are too quick to recurve this.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html#picture

Which has been the case on almost every system coming from Africa this season. I guess it would make more since at this time of year. I think your'e probably right though. Let's play the wait & see game AGAIN!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#17 Postby blp » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:38 pm

The 12z UKmet likes 98l.

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#18 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:18 pm

18Z GFS looks just as robust through 144 hours and is bullish on development.
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#19 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:21 pm

After Karen I'm pretty much tossing the GFS out as a reliable model for the rest of the season. I'm doubtful this is even going to develop as the Euro is going weaker and weaker as time goes on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:41 pm

Well,SHIP goes bonkers at 00z.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC TUE OCT 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131008 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131008 0000 131008 1200 131009 0000 131009 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 27.0W 10.0N 28.3W 10.4N 29.8W 10.2N 31.7W
BAMD 9.2N 27.0W 10.0N 28.7W 10.5N 30.0W 10.6N 31.4W
BAMM 9.2N 27.0W 9.8N 28.7W 10.2N 30.1W 9.9N 31.5W
LBAR 9.2N 27.0W 9.8N 28.3W 10.5N 29.8W 10.5N 31.6W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 46KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131010 0000 131011 0000 131012 0000 131013 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 33.9W 8.1N 37.8W 7.1N 40.4W 7.6N 42.7W
BAMD 10.2N 32.9W 8.8N 34.8W 8.3N 35.2W 9.7N 36.1W
BAMM 9.2N 32.9W 7.6N 34.5W 7.8N 35.0W 10.1N 36.5W
LBAR 10.5N 33.2W 10.1N 36.9W 10.1N 40.1W 10.9N 43.8W
SHIP 69KTS 84KTS 86KTS 83KTS
DSHP 69KTS 84KTS 86KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 27.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.1N LONM12 = 26.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 25.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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