WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#101 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:04 am

24W NARI 131012 0600 15.3N 118.0E WPAC 80 963

Down to 80 knots...
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#102 Postby oaba09 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:53 am

My dad was telling me how they experienced a sudden calm for a couple of minutes...He looked outside to check the damage to our house in nueva ecija....Suddenly, he heard howling winds so he decided to go back inside....It was definitely the eye of the typhoon....No wonder they got the worst....I was actually thinking about going there yesterday morning but decided to just stay in metro manila in the last minute....
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#103 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:16 am

24W NARI 131012 1200 15.2N 116.9E WPAC 85 959

up to 85 knots...
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#104 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:33 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#105 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:26 am

[quote="cycloneye"][/quote]


WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 544 NM EAST OF HUE,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES TY 24W
HAS BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH A MAJOR BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
HAS IMPROVED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL
INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND, BUT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS, HAVE
YET TO REFLECT THE REORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST IS PROVIDING THE OUTFLOW
MECHANISM FOR THE BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION; HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO
PRODUCING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15 TO 20
KNOTS). TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS), TY 24W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING
LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY HAMPER THE SYSTEM AS TY 24W
TREKS INTO THE MORE RESTRICTED WATERS OF THE WESTERN SCS. SLIGHTLY
AFTER TAU 48 TY 24W WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HUE, VIETNAM, AND BEGIN
TO RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS TY 24W WILL BE WELL INTO THE DISSIPATION
PROCESS, WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT; NAMELY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A RUGGED
TOPOGRAPHY OF SOUTHEAST ASIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND TAU 12. THIS FORECAST FAVORS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF
MODELS, PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE TRACK ON A WESTWARD HEADING, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#106 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:54 pm

the microwave eye is still there, all Nari needs to do is to clear it out.
Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#107 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:05 pm

is the satellite malfunctioning or it's just the robust convection of NARI?
Image


another ir loop
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#108 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:52 am

Image

eye starting to become visible
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#109 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:09 am

Got to wonder if this storm pans out after landfall similar to Watip with the reminiscence of the storms low crossing the land into the Bay of Bengal.



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#110 Postby oaba09 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:11 am

Here are some photos of the damage done by nari to our house in my home town of nueva ecija...

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#111 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:16 am

intensity at 85 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF HUE,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 85 KNOTS BASED
ON PERSISTENT IN LIGHT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
INDICATING 77 KNOTS. CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 86 KNOTS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE, VIETNAM
SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 36. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
VWS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER LANDFALL INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING OF LLCC. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
WESTWARD TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#112 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:14 pm

00z Best Track at 85kts.

24W NARI 131014 0000 15.7N 111.2E WPAC 85 959
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#113 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:52 am

WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF HUE,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED EYE FEATURE WASHING OUT.
A RECENT 141019Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ IMAGER DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE REMAINS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CANOPY. BASED ON
THIS EYE FEATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAINING CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, IN COMBINATION WITH THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 75 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS WITHIN THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF LUZON. THE STR IS PROVIDING
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SUPPORT IN BOTH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL AND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT
MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR, WHICH HAS
YET TO IMPACT THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE, ALLOWING TY 24W TO MAINTAIN
TYPHOON STRENGTH. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE, VIETNAM JUST
PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE INCREASING IMPACT ON INFLOW WILL KEEP TY 24W ON
A WEAKENING TREND FORE THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, WITH AN
ACCELERATION IN THE DECAY RATE AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. A COMPLETE
DISSIPATION OF THE LLCC IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 AS THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF LAND INCREASE OVER CENTRAL SOUTHEAST ASIA. DYNAMIC MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WESTWARD TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#114 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:02 am

Image

Nearing Landfall...
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Tropical Storm

#115 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:45 pm

Down to Tropical Storm.

TS 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 15 October 2013
<Analyses at 15/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°30'(15.5°)
E108°00'(108.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E106°10'(106.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E104°30'(104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Tropical Storm

#116 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:35 pm

Image

nari makes landfall as a category 1 typhoon with 70 knot winds...

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 108.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 108.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.6N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.7N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.2N 102.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 107.7E.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM SOUTH OF DA NANG,
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 142326Z TRMM IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TY 24W HAS MOVED ASHORE INTO CENTRAL
VIETNAM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Tropical Depression

#117 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:41 am

Image

24W NARI 131015 1200 14.8N 106.4E WPAC 45 989

interesting...BT has nari as a tropical storm overland...nonetheless, this is bringing alot of rain and flooding over southeast asia...

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/10/15/typhoon-nari-huffs-puffs-and-brings-floods-to-vietnam

sad news coming out from vietnam...
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Nari Mark II ?

#118 Postby stormkite » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:09 pm

Nari's still got rotation it will be interesting to see if the low regenerates over the Bay of Bengal. look's like at this stage .It would not have any problems with upper level shear and the monsoon trough and water temp will assist.



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