WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
18z Best Track up to 85kts.
24W NARI 131010 1800 15.5N 125.6E WPAC 85 959
24W NARI 131010 1800 15.5N 125.6E WPAC 85 959
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C? ![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
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- Extratropical94
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
hurricanes1234 wrote:Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C?
I don't know how accurate those readings are, but recent ADT estimates show average cloud top temperatures of -82 to -84 degrees. If that's the average, then some spots might be colder than -85.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
21:00z Track
![Image](http://oi43.tinypic.com/sd1mw7.jpg)
![Image](http://oi43.tinypic.com/sd1mw7.jpg)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
Now officially a typhoon.
TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 October 2013
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E113°10'(113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)
![Image](http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/images/zoomc/1325-00.png)
Intense deep convection over the CDO right now, can somebody pinpoint where the center really is?
This could be like 2009's 'Santi' or Mirinae, a moderate typhoon but without a clear, visible eye...
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 October 2013
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E113°10'(113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)
![Image](http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/images/zoomc/1325-00.png)
Intense deep convection over the CDO right now, can somebody pinpoint where the center really is?
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
cycloneye wrote:21:00z Track
So JTWC relocated the center further south.
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
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- Filipinas50
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
Typhoon Nari's Outer Rainbands Approaching the East Coast of Luzon this Morning as Seen from the Tagaytay Radar ...
![Image](http://i332.photobucket.com/albums/m335/filipinas40/latest_TAG_overlay_zps4ddfcbff.png)
![Image](http://i332.photobucket.com/albums/m335/filipinas40/latest_TAG_overlay_zps4ddfcbff.png)
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RETIRED FROM THE 9-5 RAT RACE
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
00z Best Track up to 100kts.
24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
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Latest from JMA(70 kts)
![Image](http://i717.photobucket.com/albums/ww174/oaba09/1325-00_zpsb33d9ebc.png)
TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 October 2013
<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
![Image](http://i717.photobucket.com/albums/ww174/oaba09/1325-00_zpsb33d9ebc.png)
TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 October 2013
<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)
<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
Major typhoon! ![Double :double:](./images/smilies/doublevision.gif)
![Double :double:](./images/smilies/doublevision.gif)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
This has to be the most active tropical cyclone day in 2013 so far. One upper-end Category 4 cyclone just 2 mph from C5 status, one 115 mph typhoon in the WPAC, and one strengthening TS with 40 knot winds in the WPAC too. Also the first day with two simultaneous tropical cyclones having winds of 111+ mph. Amazing October 10th 2013. ![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
![Surprised :eek:](./images/smilies/icon_eek.gif)
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
![Image](http://oi39.tinypic.com/16bk36u.jpg)
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![Image](http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/7488/z2pa.jpg)
2013OCT11 023000 5.0 967.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW HOLD OFF OFF -77.10 -78.24
(Looks at least 100 + knots on the image)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
dexterlabio wrote:I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.
Frankly, I'm baffled....I'm just trying not to say too much because I know the forum has a rule against criticizing agencies.....
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi
amazing...a major typhoon 100 knots headed for landfall...may god bless everyone in the philippines and india...
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