WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#61 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:02 pm

18z Best Track up to 85kts.

24W NARI 131010 1800 15.5N 125.6E WPAC 85 959
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#62 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:00 pm

Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C? :eek:
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#63 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:06 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Extremely deep convection around the center now. What temperature might those cloud tops be? -85°C? :eek:


I don't know how accurate those readings are, but recent ADT estimates show average cloud top temperatures of -82 to -84 degrees. If that's the average, then some spots might be colder than -85.
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:31 pm

21:00z Track

Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#65 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:50 pm

Now officially a typhoon. :lol:

TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 10 October 2013

<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E117°40'(117.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E113°10'(113.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

Image



Intense deep convection over the CDO right now, can somebody pinpoint where the center really is? :lol: This could be like 2009's 'Santi' or Mirinae, a moderate typhoon but without a clear, visible eye...
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#66 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:21:00z Track

Image



So JTWC relocated the center further south. :lol: I guess we were both tricked by the expanding CDO last night. I also thought it was moving northwards.
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#67 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:44 pm

That convection is massive and scary!
It actually reminds me of ketsana
Even the projected path is kinda similar
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#68 Postby Filipinas50 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:30 pm

Typhoon Nari's Outer Rainbands Approaching the East Coast of Luzon this Morning as Seen from the Tagaytay Radar ...

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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:56 pm

00z Best Track up to 100kts.

24W NARI 131011 0000 15.7N 124.3E WPAC 100 948
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#70 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:04 pm

Latest from JMA(70 kts)

Image

TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 October 2013


<Analyses at 11/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 13/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E116°05'(116.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#71 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:05 pm

Major typhoon! :double:
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:42 pm

This has to be the most active tropical cyclone day in 2013 so far. One upper-end Category 4 cyclone just 2 mph from C5 status, one 115 mph typhoon in the WPAC, and one strengthening TS with 40 knot winds in the WPAC too. Also the first day with two simultaneous tropical cyclones having winds of 111+ mph. Amazing October 10th 2013. :eek:
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#73 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:57 pm

Another discrepancy in the center location between JTWC and JMA

As of 0000z
JMA 15.3 AND 124.5
JTWC 15.7 AND 124.3
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:11 pm

Image
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#75 Postby stormkite » Thu Oct 10, 2013 10:30 pm

Image



2013OCT11 023000 5.0 967.7 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW HOLD OFF OFF -77.10 -78.24

(Looks at least 100 + knots on the image)




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#76 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:11 pm

I honestly don't know why PAGASA has that WNW turn...Both JMA and JTWC is saying that this is a straight runner

Image
Image
Image
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#77 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:27 pm

Here's the latest image from pagasa's Doppler radar

Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#78 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:31 pm

I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#79 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:42 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know why PAGASA shifted the forecast track to the north.


Frankly, I'm baffled....I'm just trying not to say too much because I know the forum has a rule against criticizing agencies.....
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#80 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:54 pm

amazing...a major typhoon 100 knots headed for landfall...may god bless everyone in the philippines and india...
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