WPAC: NARI - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#81 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:54 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS A PINHOLE
EYE BECAME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON CLOSELY-SPACED DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 24W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR A ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM
MAY SEE A SPIKE IN THE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO LUZON
NEAR TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) BEFORE TAU 24. ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, TY
24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, PERSIST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON NARI WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
HUE, VIETNAM, THEN COMMENCE RAPID DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. //
NNNN
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#82 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:51 am

Latest from JMA...It seems like they're the only agency who's getting the position right...

Image

TY 1325 (NARI)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 11 October 2013


<Analyses at 11/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E118°30'(118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E114°10'(114.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 14/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E111°35'(111.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#83 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:34 am

^actually, JTWC is also starting to readjust the position....

TPPN10 PGTW 110629 COR

A. TYPHOON 24W (NARI)

B. 11/0532Z

C. 15.4N

D. 123.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. 170NM DIAMETER CDO + BF
YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT WERE 5.0. DBO DT. COR ISSUED
WITH READJUSTMENT OF POSITION BASED ON REANALYSIS OF IR IMAGERY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG


I expect a little adjustment in position in their next warning....could also be a more westerly track...
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#84 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:46 am

Just to share.......I did my usual 'patrolling' over Facebook and Twitter, searching for reports in different places where storm warning signals are hoisted.. People from the north (specifically Baguio City and Ifugao) were saying that they are not seeing even a drop of rain yet and Signal No. 3 was hoisted. However, people in Bicol (Sorsogon, Daet, Naga) are experiencing strong gusts and heavy rainfall according to their posts. These are areas with lower storm signal except Sorsogon where no storm warning signal was hoisted.
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Re:

#85 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:54 am

dexterlabio wrote:Just to share.......I did my usual 'patrolling' over Facebook and Twitter, searching for reports in different places where storm warning signals are hoisted.. People from the north (specifically Baguio City and Ifugao) were saying that they are not seeing even a drop of rain yet and Signal No. 3 was hoisted. However, people in Bicol (Sorsogon, Daet, Naga) are experiencing strong gusts and heavy rainfall according to their posts. These are areas with lower storm signal except Sorsogon where no storm warning signal was hoisted.

Some people in southern luzon will be complacent because of pagasa's forecast....PAGASA will be in so much trouble if they mess this one up....They better make a correction in their 5:00 pm bulletin...
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#86 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:04 am

JTWC finally made the correction

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.6N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 122.9E.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#87 Postby ejeraldmc » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:16 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemil ... scolw.html

Black areas from the colorised loop extend farther south.
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#88 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:06 am

24W NARI 131011 0600 15.4N 123.5E WPAC 100 948

Best Track remains at 100 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT HAS DEEPENED AND FILLED
THE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED PINHOLE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AS WELL AS A WARM NOTCH WHICH IS EVIDENT
IN A 110441Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY
24W IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE
SAME EASTERLY FLOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM
MAY SEE A SPIKE IN THE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO
LUZON NEAR TAU 12 DUE TO THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON AND THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(SCS) BEFORE TAU 24. ONCE BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, TY
24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE SCS, PERSIST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON NARI WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
HUE, VIETNAM, THEN COMMENCE RAPID DISSIPATION DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. THERE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONGST OBJECTIVE AIDS WITH
ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER. INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK INTO CENTRAL VIETNAM, ECMWF BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
AT TAU 72 INTO HAINAN. THIS DEVIATION FROM THE REST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR ALLOWING FOR
THE NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. DESPITE THIS, DUE TO THE OVERALL TIGHT
AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN


landfall should occur in the next several hours...
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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 am

Image

approaching landfall
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#90 Postby Pleasing05 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:15 am

eye landfall at about 9pm

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#91 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:43 am

Dingalan, Aurora is now reporting SLP of 953.63 hpa.

Image
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#92 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:41 am

The wind reminds me of Pedring/Nesat. And heavy rain is still on here in Manila.
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#93 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:18 pm

Eyewall could already be moving over water again.

Image
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#94 Postby dhoeze » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:09 pm

no sleep here.. take care everyone.. so far... hourly mm of rainfall is from 10-30mm...
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#95 Postby dhoeze » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:06 pm

according to PAGASA, eye already over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#96 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:13 pm

landfall intensity was 105 knots, a strong category 3 typhoon...

it is now traversing over luzon and winds are down to 90 knots but should intensify as the core is now over the South China Sea...

WDPN32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
TY NARI HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LUZON AS THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE HAS SLIGHTLY DECLINED WHILE THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ERODES THE SYSTEM. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SUBIC BAY,
PHILIPPINES, AND A 111717Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, ADDITIONALLY
SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEMS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
AND CONVECTION HAS WANED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND SEEN IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY AND HAS BEEN HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN
OVERLAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KNOTS FROM RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 24W HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST OUTFLOW IN
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY NARI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE LAND EFFECTS FROM
LUZON UNTIL RE-EMERGING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE SCS,
TY 24W WILL RE-INTENSIFY TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. BY TAU 72, TY 24W WILL START TO
WEAKEN AS LAND INTERACTION BEGINS TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT.
C. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 NEAR HUE, VIETNAM,
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIVE WEST. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID EROSION
OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
DESPITE ECMWF AND EGRR TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TRACK THAN AN
OTHERWISE, VERY TIGHT GROUPING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF DYNAMIC MODELS THAT PERSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:28 pm

Image

looks well-organized after crossing the Philippines
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#98 Postby oaba09 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:52 pm

Experienced strong winds in metro manila but fortunately, no significant damages reported...My home town(Nueva Ecija) got the worst since the typhoon passed directly over there...My mom and dad are telling me that there are a lot of trees that have been uprooted.....There are also electricity poles that have been brought down....multiple roads in the nueva ecija and bulacan area are not passable....
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#99 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:24 am

WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (NARI) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 24W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES TY NARI HAS RE-EMERGED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES, SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
DEFINED STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO DEEPEN SINCE MOVING
BACK OVER THE SCS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION
AND THE RADAR ANIMATION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LLCC BEING
OBSCURED BY THE CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM
102 TO 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT TY 24W HAS MAINTAINED ROBUST OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF WEAK TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY NARI IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE SCS, TY 24W WILL
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING LAND
INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO HAMPER THE SYSTEM AS TY 24W TREKS INTO THE
MORE RESTRICTED WATERS OF THE SCS. BY TAU 72, TY 24W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR HUE, VIETNAM, AND BEGIN TO MORE RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO
THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 24W WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DESPITE ECMWF AND EGRR CONTINUING TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH TRACK THAN AN OTHERWISE, VERY TIGHT GROUPING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF
DYNAMIC MODELS THAT CONSISTENTLY CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: NARI - Typhoon / Santi

#100 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:57 am

Image

impressive view of the eye over land...
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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