WPAC: WIPHA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109472
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:32 pm

21:00z track.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109472
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:57 pm

00z Best Track up to 40kts.

25W WIPHA 131011 0000 13.4N 142.4E WPAC 40 993
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#23 Postby stormkite » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:20 pm

It's got nice looking vort.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:04 pm

This is absolutely insane. :eek: :eek: :eek: Now forecasting a peak of 110 knots for Wipha! :double:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109472
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:14 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

oaba09
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1494
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 10:02 am
Location: Valenzuela, Philippines
Contact:

#26 Postby oaba09 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:32 pm

The WPAC is definitely on steroids right now...
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:02 am

while the atlantic and east pacific develops weak sheared storms and many complaining a lack of strong hurricanes especially major hurricanes, over here it's the other way around every year... :eek:
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:13 am

Image

Updated Position...

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED JUST WEST OF GUAM. A 102236Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PERSISTING BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW AS WELL AS A 102236Z SSMI-S IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. TS 25W CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 25W IS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
TURNING POLEWARD LATE IN PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH. HIGH ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, UP TO AN ESTIMATED PEAK OF 110
KNOTS, BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH NAVGEM AND GFDN INDICATING A SLIGHTLY WIDER
RECURVATURE TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN RECURVING POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WITH MOST
DISAGREEMENT RELATING TO RECURVATURE TIMING AND POST-RECURVATURE
TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF RECURVATURE AND
POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEED, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:21 am

574
WTPQ31 PGUM 110225
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252013
200 PM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WIPHA UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.8N 141.9E

ABOUT 195 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 395 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WIPHA
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE
141.9 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WIPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WIPHA
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP 140 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 65 MILES ELSEWHERE. WIPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS/EDSON

551
WWPQ80 PGUM 110428
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
228 PM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

PMZ161-171-172-111600-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
228 PM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

...INCLEMENT WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA...

TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (25W) IS CENTERED 295 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AT
14N142E. STRONG MONSOON WINDS SOUTH OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM
WIPHA CONTINUE ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER YAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT HAVE MOVED NORTH OF KOROR AND
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.

SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON RAIN
BANDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ISLANDS IN YAP STATE INCLUDING
NGULU...YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

INCLEMENT WEATHER HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KOROR AND NORTHWEST OF CHUUK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WEST SWELL AND WIND
WAVES GENERATED BY STRONG MONSOON WINDS SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM
WIPHA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH KOROR AND YAP FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND INSTRUCTIONS
AVAILABLE FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICES AND RADIO STATIONS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

WILLIAMS
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:28 am

been raining constantly and at times very heavy since this morning and flooding being reported...i love this kind of breezy weather :D...radar has more in store for us and the mariana islands...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:09 am

25W WIPHA 131011 0600 14.2N 141.5E WPAC 50 985

Best Track up to 50 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM SOUTH
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED JUST WEST OF GUAM. A
110731Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION IS BASED
ON A 110439Z AMSU-89 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW.
THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON RELIABLE SHIP
REPORTS OF 50 KNOTS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS A
110027Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 50 KNOT WINDS. THIS INTENSITY IS IN LINE
WITH THE CIMSS AMSU AND SATCON ESTIMATES, WHILE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES VARY FROM 35-45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 25W CONTINUES TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE TS
25W TO BEGIN A POLEWARD DEFLECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. TS 25W
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW ALONG THE TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A
FORECAST PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NAVGEM AND GFDN REMAIN
LEFTWARD OUTLIERS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE NORTHWESTLY TRACK. BASED ON THIS AGREEMENT, FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRIOR TO TAU 120 AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC TROUGH.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE RECURVATURE SCENCARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AND SUBSEQUENT
TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS NORTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PRIOR WARNING, AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF RECURVATURE AND POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEED, CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN


154
WTPQ31 PGUM 110945
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252013
800 PM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WIPHA INTENSIFYING WEST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.5N 141.2E

ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 305 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WIPHA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.2
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM WIPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL
STORM WIPHA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT FORWARD SPEED AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND UP TO 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. WIPHA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

$$

W.AYDLETT
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re:

#32 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:10 am

oaba09 wrote:The WPAC is definitely on steroids right now...


Only basin in Northern Hemisphere active this year, all other basins are in a comatose state.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

#33 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:56 pm

JMA Upgrades to a Severe Tropical Storm

STS 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 11 October 2013

<Analyses at 11/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S500km(270NM)
N440km(240NM)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109472
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:48 pm

Japan may have a big threat from Wipha.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Severe Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:14 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111754Z AMSU 89-GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR
AND FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS
BASED ON THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, AND CONSISTENT WITH
PRIOR SCATTEROMETER DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 25W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT PROGRESSES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. DYNAMICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE STAIGHTFORWARD
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS,
FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 25W WILL ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING. TS 25W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96, ACCELERATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER, AND COMPLETE A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEEDS AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE POST-RECURVATURE TRACK
SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46080
Age: 30
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:26 pm

Image

becoming better organized by the hour
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Severe Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:27 am

60 knots...expected to become our 12th typhoon...wow...

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 112223Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SOME FRAGMENTATION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY A MORE
RECENT 120006Z AMSU-B PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
OBSERVED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO
BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK TUTT CELL IS COMPLETING ITS TRANSITION OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN STILL BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT OVERALL OUTFLOW
IS IMPROVING. THE CURRENT POSITION WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A TIMELY 120006Z ASCAT PASS. TS 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 25W WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT PROGRESSES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FORECAST INTENSITY
REFLECTS THIS WITH A 30-KNOT INCREASE FROM 60 KNOTS UP TO 90 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. DURING TAUS 36-72, TS 25W SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER RAPID
INTENSIFICATION STILL EXISTS. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE STRAIGHTFORWARD STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS, FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS HIGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 25W WILL ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
LOWER ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL INDUCE STEADY
WEAKENING. TS 25W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
TROUGH BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96, ACCELERATE RAPIDLY INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER, AND COMPLETE A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEEDS AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TO OFFSET THE SLOWER TRACKERS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEEDS, CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Severe Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:05 am

25W WIPHA 131012 0600 16.7N 138.8E WPAC 60 978

remains just shy of becoming a typhoon...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109472
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:14 am

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1326 (WIPHA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 12 October 2013
<Analyses at 12/12 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°35'(17.6°)
E138°10'(138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S600km(325NM)
N500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°35'(23.6°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 15/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°30'(28.5°)
E134°10'(134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL650km(350NM)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13099
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:15 am

25W WIPHA 131012 1200 17.3N 138.2E WPAC 65 974

Upgraded into our 12th typhoon of the season...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests