WPAC: WIPHA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#61 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:17 am

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING EYE WITH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. DUAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE ENTIRE
PERIMETER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE EYE ITSELF
HAS EXPANDED, RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 NM BASED ON THE EIR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAVE HELPED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TY 25W
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC HAS BEEN
PROVIDING THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE
HOURS, IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED POLEWARD CHANNEL BEING
ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH CIMSS SATCON INDICATING 113
KNOTS. TY 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT
PROGRESSES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 12, PRIOR TO ROUNDING
THE STR. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL
BEGIN A SPEEDY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AROUND TAU 60, AS THE
SYSTEM IS PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF JAPAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE TY
25W TO ACCELERATE THE ETT PROCESS, WITH COMPLETE ETT SLIGHTLY AFTER
TAU 72. TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW
WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:37 am

2013OCT13 143200 6.1 929.8 117.4 5.7 5.6 5.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG -5.91 -64.76 EYE 14 IR 54.0 20.17 -136.10 COMBO MTSAT2 25.7

Current Estimate

Image

Image

very impressive...

Image

wipha is huge!

JMA has this at only 80 knots 10 min... :roll: poor...
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:24 pm

Peak now at 120kts.

Image
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#64 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:10 pm

Looking at GFS runs I feel that Wipha may track more west than JTWC predicts, a direct hit on Tokyo can't be rule out

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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:12 pm

00z Best Track at 110kts.

25W WIPHA 131014 0000 21.7N 135.5E WPAC 110 941
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:48 pm

0300Z JTWC warning track.

Image
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WIPHA

#67 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:53 pm

Image


Most models show the storm tracking along the east of japan and also a much weaker storm. IMO it's quite possibile this storm will be into a transition process and maybe extratropical by the time it's close to japan.




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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#68 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:17 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:18 am

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion about the possible effects in Japan.

Typhoon Wipha a heavy rainfall threat for Japan

Huge and powerful Category 2 Typhoon Wipha is now weakening as it heads north towards Japan. The storm peaked as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Sunday, but has weakened to 110 mph winds, despite warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C and moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, because of an eyewall replacement cycle and ingestion of dry air. On Tuesday, Wipha will encounter cooler waters and higher wind shear, which should substantially weaken the storm as it recurves to the northeast and passes just offshore from Tokyo. The coast of Japan should experience winds below hurricane force, if the core of Wipha passes offshore as expected, but heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will likely affect portions of the coast, including Tokyo. Heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#70 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:53 am

strong category 2 typhoon...

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 723 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY WELL-DEFINED EYE COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN
INTO TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE WIND FIELD REMAINS EXPANSIVE, WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORTING THE
WEAKENING OBSERVED IN EIR. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE APPEARS TO
HAVE BROKEN DOWN AS THE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED MORE NORTHWARD. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE OVERALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING FOR THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF DRY COOLER AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP FROM THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AROUND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE DRY
AIR HAS YET TO PENETRATE TOWARDS THE LLCC, BUT APPEARS TO BE
HAMPERING STRONGER INFLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. TY
25W IS STARTING TO SHIFT STEERING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY,
CAUSING THE MORE NORTHWARD ORIENTED TRACK IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER BASED ON A SHIFTING
IN THE CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFTED CLOSER TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.
B. TY 25W WILL ROUND THE STR OVER THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS
AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WILL TEMPER
THE WEAKENING INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
LLCC. HOWEVER, INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BEYOND TAU 24 WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TY 25W WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND
EXPANSIVE EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF JAPAN, WITH INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
CAUSING THE ETT TO COMPLETE BY TAU 48. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
AND AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS DUE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSISTENCE
INDICATING THAT SYSTEMS TEND TO RECURVE MORE QUICKLY AND OUTPACE
MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 4:14 pm

21:00z Track shifts more west and now Japan is on the track especially Tokyo.

Image
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#72 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:01 pm

14/2032 UTC 26.2N 133.8E T4.5/5.0 WIPHA -- West Pacific
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#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:01 pm

I think if we had Recon, there would be huge mismatches between wind and pressure. For instance, I would think a central pressure around 940 would be found, even if the winds were only about 85 kt.
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#74 Postby stormkite » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:49 pm

Image


WTPH RPMM 141800 (FINAL)
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 04
AT 1800 14 OCTOBER TYPHOON (WIPHA) [1326] WAS LOCATED AT TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN
NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT
ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO
KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER
RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS
MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS
PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ONE THREE
METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER NORTH
SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT
150600 TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX EAST WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD
WEATHER MANILA
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#75 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:18 pm

I little further west would but the RFQ over Tokyo Bay.
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#76 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:37 pm

rainbands already affecting the japanese main islands...
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#77 Postby stormkite » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:12 am

wdpn31 pgtw 150300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 25w (wipha) warning nr 19//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon 25w (wipha), located approximately 593 nm south-southwest
of yokosuka, Japan, has tracked northward at 12 knots over the past
six hours. The current position is based on a recent pgtw satellite
fix and a 142352z ssmis pass. The current intensity of 90 knots is
consistent with Dvorak current intensity estimates from pgtw and
knes. Recent animated infrared and multispectral satellite imagery
show that convective banding has become slightly shallower and less
organized over the past few hours. The system continues to turn
toward a poleward track as it approaches the base of a mid-latitude
trough approaching from the northwest. Drier air in the middle and
upper-levels is wrapping around the northwestern periphery of the
circulation, although it appears from satellite imagery that this
dry air has not yet wrapped into the circulation center. The low
level circulation of TY 25w is quite expansive, with gale force
winds extending over 200 nm from the center of the system.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no change to the forecast philosophy since the
previous prognostic reasoning message.
B. TY 25w will crest the steering ridge over the next few hours
and accelerate northeastward ahead of the approaching trough to the
northwest. Steady weakening is expected during the forecast period
due to increasing vertical wind shear and passage over cooler water.
However, favorable baroclinic processes, including strong divergence
aloft ahead of the approaching midlatitude trough, will allow the
system to transition into a very strong extratropical low before tau
36. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance remain in very tight
agreement throughout the forecast. The forecast track lies slightly
ahead and to the right of the consensus due to climatological
persistence indicating that systems tend to recurve more quickly and
outpace model guidance. Based on tight grouping of model guidance
and straightforward steering influences, confidence in the forecast
track remains high.//
Nnnn
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#78 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:20 am

25W WIPHA 131015 0600 28.5N 134.7E WPAC 80 963

80 knots...
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#79 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:54 am

25W WIPHA 131015 1200 30.5N 136.5E WPAC 75 967

down to 75 knots...
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#80 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:22 am

Image
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