WPAC: WIPHA - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#81 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 10:31 am

Image

japan especially tokyo metropolis getting slammed by rain...

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND BECAME MORE
DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED - PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
- AS THE CYCLONE GOT EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
ON A 151043Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN A RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE
IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON WIPHA WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER AND IMMERSION DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. //
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#82 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 4:49 pm

For those who don't know where in Japan is the nuclear plant of Fuckushima located.here is a map. Hopefully nothing happens to it as this Typhoon moves thru.

Image
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Re: WPAC: WIPHA - Typhoon

#83 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:37 pm

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 32.7N 138.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.7N 138.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 39.3N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 45 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 46.1N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 34.3N 140.4E.
TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED
AND ELONGATED, PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ADDITIONALLY,
TRACK SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EMBEDDED
DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD TO REFLECT THE
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
RAPID EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS NOW TRACKING ALONG
THE POLEWARD EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST.
TYPHOON WIPHA WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TRACKING OVER COOLER WATER AND
IMMERSION DEEPER INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 12. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS LAID SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 30 FEET.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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