EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112151
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF OCTAVE NOW AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 113.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. OCTAVE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE
TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY OCTAVE ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112151
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 113.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A
CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES
ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN
THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C
SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN
30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF
THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#83 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:59 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142044
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 113.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE MOUNTAIN STATION
SIERRA LAGUNA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...72 KM/H AND A
GUST TO 85 MPH...137 KM/H AT AN ALTITUDE OF 6400 FT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142046
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A
CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES
ONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN
THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C
SSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN
30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF
THE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2644
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:04 pm

Landfall!

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:16 pm



No, it's still a bit offshore. Center on the SW side AFAIK.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:20 pm

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142333
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
500 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 113.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUNTA ABREOJOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN THE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OCTAVE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY BY THE TIME IT NEARS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...AND THE MAINLAND MEXICO STATE OF SONORA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR INTO TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112151
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:35 pm

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24
HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST
OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES
LAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE
CIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO
THE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#88 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:42 pm

Moisture moving inland. Pulling an Octave 83. Won't be as bad though, clearly. Monsoon's gone is the main reason why IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:48 pm

I think it's rare for a storm to make landfall on Baja in the middle of October

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 11:00 pm

supercane4867 wrote:I think it's rare for a storm to make landfall on Baja in the middle of October

http://i.imgur.com/yDTkp2M.gif



No. Paul nearly did the same thing last year. I love late season Baja systems though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10545
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#91 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 15, 2013 6:58 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150833
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED
FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE
MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 112151
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

#92 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:42 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OCTAVE HAS MOVED MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ROUGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...COUPLED WITH
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KT...HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED THE REMAINING
MODERATE CONVECTION MORE THAN 150 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS A
RESULT...OCTAVE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY SEPARATED FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATTER FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE UNITED STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 26.9N 109.4W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest