EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 60% / 60%

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2013 12:44 pm

Up to 60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY. AFTER
THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA
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#42 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 1:07 pm

It has 48 hours before conditions become very unfavorable. Probably enough time to become a minimal tropical storm.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 60% / 60%

#43 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:16 pm

One last opportunity...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 60% / 60%

#44 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:03 pm

Already starting to deal with shear. :roll:
Last edited by hurricanes1234 on Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 60% / 60%

#45 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:07 pm

Second TCFA ... :roll:

WTPN21 PHNC 121730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 107.3W TO 18.7N 111.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 108.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N
107.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 108.0W, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AS BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BECOME APPARENT ALONG
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A PARTIAL 121426Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS BUILDING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS FAIR OUTFLOW
IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTION IS BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131730Z.//
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 80% / 80%

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:47 pm

80%/80%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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#47 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:53 pm

RENUMBER

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep152013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310130049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 80% / 80%

#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:12 pm

Yay. Renumber. :)
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 80% / 80%

#49 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:33 pm

Well organized

It may go straight to TS when first advisory out

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E - 80% / 80%

#50 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:12 pm

Not as bad as I thought. :oops:
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART
AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER
WATER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: FIFTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:45 pm

They did remark that 30 knots could be conservative. :)
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#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:32 pm

Wow, it pulled a Genvieve 08 and formed. Storm #17 here we come.
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#54 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 11:55 pm

Deep convection has been increasing in both the spiral band wrapping in from the west and the center itself over the past few hours. We likely have Tropical Storm Octave right now.

The government of Mexico may issue tropical storm watches for Baja California Sur 'just in case' but I doubt they'll be needed. Wind shear over 30 knots and sea surface temperatures under 26C should guarantee little is left of this system by the time it reaches land...barring any unexpected rapid deepening.
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#55 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:34 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby jaguarjace » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:40 am

Image

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 111.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
----------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN
ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.
THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...
AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:56 am

Best Track up to 45 knots!


EP, 15, 2013101312, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1118W, 45, 998, TS
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:38 am

I really apologise for my previous posts of frustration, just I thought this wasn't going to develop. Again, I apologise. :( :oops:
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:35 am

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OCTAVE. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE
AT SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
STORM...FELL TO AS LOW AS 1001.4 MB AROUND 11Z...WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE IS BELOW 1000 MB. BASED ON
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CENTER OF OCTAVE TO BE BETTER
DETERMINED...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTWARD LOCATION. OTHER
THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK OR REASONING. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 22N FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. AS OCTAVE WEAKENS...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY
SHALLOW AND SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL FSSE.

ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE RECENT INGESTION OF COOLER AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
FROM OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...OCTAVE
WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD STRIP AWAY ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:21 am

Image

Looks like Octave may be peaking. But for those who may not have been able to obtain the peak, here's a picture. :uarrow:
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


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