EPAC: OCTAVE - Post-Tropical

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#61 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:14 am

Not a bad TS. Reminds me of Olaf 09.
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:25 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I really apologise for my previous posts of frustration, just I thought this wasn't going to develop. Again, I apologise. :( :oops:


we all forgive you but i do love reading your post... :D
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:27 am

how do you pronounce octave?
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:31 am

euro6208 wrote:how do you pronounce octave?


AHK-tayv

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/aboutnames_ ... e_epac.pdf
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:37 am

euro6208 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I really apologise for my previous posts of frustration, just I thought this wasn't going to develop. Again, I apologise. :( :oops:


we all forgive you but i do love reading your post... :D



:ggreen:
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:05 pm

Convection increasing near center, seems like an eye like feature is also present.
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#67 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:48 pm

Image

neat eye-like feature
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:56 pm

T3.5/55kt from SSD

TXPZ23 KNES 131820
TCSENP

A. 15E (OCTAVE)

B. 13/1800Z

C. 19.0N

D. 112.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 9/10 FOR A DT=3.5. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:05 pm

The BT is also up to 55 knots! Octave has been doing very well.


EP, 15, 2013101318, , BEST, 0, 186N, 1125W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, D,
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:19 pm

Image

OCTAVE and 95E connected
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:32 pm

With that eye, Octave is looking like a hurricane. The question is whether Octave will eat 95E for snacktime, or allow it to blossom into a TC. He's shearing 95E's center to the east. Maybe MJO is moving over EPAC now. :)
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 2:54 pm

Wow! Surely making the best use of favourable conditions while they last. :crazyeyes:

Image
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:00 pm

Hmm, Octave pulling a Kiko. Will it finish and become a hurricane or just stay a TS?
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#74 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:00 pm

The 18z best track says 55kt but I wouldn't be surprised if they went 60kt as a compromise between T3.5/55kt from SAB and T4.0/65kt from TAFB.

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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:47 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...OCTAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES WELL TO THE
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 112.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUTER BAND CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE
INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK. THE INNER
CORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT
100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED
NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT
WINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A
OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES
INDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS
GENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
OCTAVE IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT
IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 6 KT OF 850-200 MB SHEAR...
WHICH EXPLAINS THE NORTHWARD TILT OF THE EYE FEATURE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE TILTED EYE FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE RATHER COMPACT
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...MEANS THE OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ONCE
IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE
LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11 KT. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND
WEAK OCTAVE COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COMPLETELY DECOUPLES.
THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TCVE AND FSSE
MODELS.

DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF OCTAVE...THE CURRENT TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...PLUS AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DOES
NOT WARRANT ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OCTAVE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO
A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 0006 UTC SSMI/S PASS ALSO SUGGESTED AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 1800 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE 26C-
ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLING SEA SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE...
ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 24 HOURS...SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEYOND THAT TIME.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH OCTAVE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

OCTAVE HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...335/13. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE WHEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATE FROM
ONE ANOTHER...LEAVING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OCTAVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#77 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:57 pm

Looks like no hurricane. Watch it die quickly like Kiko.
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#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 7:02 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140853
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM
HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS
PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C
ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A
SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE
OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON
TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE
IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:17 am

Looks like the top was just blown off.

Image
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Re: EPAC: OCTAVE - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:44 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.



TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH
OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C...
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A
RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT
AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX-
WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING
THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT
LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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