EPAC: PRISCILLA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: PRISCILLA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:42 pm

Oops! Is Invest 95E.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310130030
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013101300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952013
EP, 95, 2013101200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1181W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013101206, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1179W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013101212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1176W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013101218, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1174W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2013101300, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1171W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:24 am

20%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 20% / 20%

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:28 am

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME POORLY
DEFINED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 20% / 20%

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 10:30 am

I can actually imagine this having a chance. The pressure is already below 1005 mbar, unusual for a 25 knot invest. Once Octave weakens, this just might have an opportunity to develop, providing that wind shear remains low, dry air minimal, etc.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:06 am

Image

Latest visible image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 30% / 30%

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 12:29 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 13, 2013 3:17 pm

Image

latest visible
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#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 13, 2013 4:20 pm

This may actually have a chance IMO. Once Octave moves out of the way of course :P
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 30% / 30%

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:19 pm

60%/60%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO THE HIGH CATEGORY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
WOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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#10 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 6:49 pm

60/60%

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 60% / 60%

#11 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 7:11 pm

Knew it! As Yellow Evan stated, once Octave moves out of the way, this could very well form. In fact, it could even form tonight. What are the models showing?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 60% / 60%

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:06 pm

00z Best Track

EP, 95, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1165W, 30, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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#13 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:16 pm

I think we'll have our 18th TS of the season by this time tomorrow. Downside: Likely to be a crappy system.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E - 60% / 60%

#14 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 13, 2013 9:58 pm

Why hasn't it been renumbered yet? It's running out of time.


OFF TOPIC: I've noticed that Storm2k has been periodically down today, the pages would say something about Paypal being down, or the URL is invalid or not found. Does anyone have additional information on this?
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:06 am

Image

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
----------------------------------------------

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF ASCAT
PASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RESEARCH VESSEL MELVILLE...
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT. AS A
RESULT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
PRISCILLA...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/10 KT IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL. PRISCILLA SHOULD MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. AS PRISCILLA
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

PRISCILLA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOL WATERS AND
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING
BY 48 HOURS...AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.2N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 6:06 am

Impressive, two storms active at the same time. Maybe MJO is back.
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:00 am

12z Best Track up to 40kts.

EP, 16, 2013101412, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1155W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 30, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PRISCILLA, M,
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:45 am

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE BETWEEN 30-35 KT...THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS BETWEEN
35-40 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.9/43
KT. THE LATTER TWO ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND PRISCILLA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD BE LIMITED BY
INGESTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD. BY DAY
3...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND MORE
STABLE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL INDUCE QUICK WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...AND IN FACT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PRISCILLA NEAR
OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

PRISCILLA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...AND ITS
INITIAL MOTION IS 010/9 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE ALONG 120W FILLS IN AND FORCES PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OCCURRED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH REQUIRED A FAIRLY
SIZEABLE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS
WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL LIES
EAST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...SO
AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.2N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 2:36 pm

Cute little storm. :)
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT
AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY HAVE
SHRUNK SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW VECTORS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EKE OUT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PRISCILLA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN SHOULD
DECREASE TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO
ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH MAY BE THE STRONGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COLDER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRISCILLA BY DAY
3...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
4...IF NOT SOONER. THE 12Z GFDL AND HWRF RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER THAN THE 06Z RUNS...AND NO LONGER SHOW PRISCILLA REACHING
NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY. AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ON THIS CYCLE.

PRISCILLA IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8 KT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE DISSIPATES NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
RIDGE WILL FORCE PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAS AGAIN
SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED
IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT THE ADJUSTMENT IS NOT AS BIG AS WHAT WAS
NEEDED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.3N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 18.0N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.8N 119.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.6N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 18.3N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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