EPAC: PRISCILLA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 3:43 pm

I don't think this will strengthen anymore. :(
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 4:15 pm

:crying: *sniff* *sniff* At least the convection ...... is strong, though. *sniff* *sniff* :crying:

Image
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#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:15 pm

Has the classic sheared look to it.
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:02 pm

Knew it. You can almost expect this to happen everytime we have a storm in 2013. (underachieving) :( Poor Priscilla - still a cute storm, though.


EP, 16, 2013101500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1159W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 30, 1010, 160, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PRISCILLA, M,
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
SOME SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35
KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE NORTH OR 360/07. THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA SOON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD
THE WEST ONCE THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.

MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
WHILE PRISCILLA MOVES OVER WARM BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD...PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING MORE AND MORE OF A
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THIS
NEGATIVE FACTOR WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING LIKELY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION
IS NOW SHOWN SOONER...BY 96 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.2N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:36 am

Barely a tropical storm. Pressure continues to rise. Shear is forecast to decrease, but dry air will increase. We can't even have moist air and low shear at the same time, that is just one factor of how weak this season continues to be. Can't be as busted as the Atlantic this year though.
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#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:01 am

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150836
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...WHICH
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
PLAGUING PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT RETURN LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW MUCH SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IS FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.1N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.3N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH
A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE
IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. NOW THAT THE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT
LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96
HOURS.

PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS WELL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Depression

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:34 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS IN A DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PRISCILLA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS
AND DISSIPATING AFTER 72 HOURS.

BASED ON A 2315Z AMSU PASS...THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/06. PRISCILLA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PRISCILLA
BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. MUCH OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER AFTER
24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOLLOWING THOSE
TRENDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN
THE GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.7N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.1N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 18.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.0N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 18.8N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2013 3:43 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN PRISCILLA HAS VANISHED...LEAVING
BEHIND ONLY A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OVERLAID BY MID-LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A TIMELY 1717Z ASCAT-B PASS HELPED TO PROVIDE
BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO TO SHOW PEAK
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS REDUCED TO 25
KT.

THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE DUE TO IT TRAVERSING
LUKEWARM 26C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. ALONG ITS
PROJECTED PATH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE
WEST SHORTLY...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS INDICATED IN A DAY.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT
RE-EMERGE SOON.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AS THE
CYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED
ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
UPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 18.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: EPAC: PRISCILLA - Post-Tropical

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 16, 2013 9:43 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN
SOONER.

THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN
THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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