WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 14, 2013 8:40 pm

16.0N 151.1E

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:38 pm

already at medium!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 151.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOW-
LEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, AN
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS,
RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 12:52 am

024
WWMY80 PGUM 150533
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
333 PM CHST TUE OCT 15 2013

GUZ001>004-152100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
333 PM CHST TUE OCT 15 2013

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS...

THIS AFTERNOON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED EAST OF THE
MARIANAS...WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER NEAR LATITUDE 16 DEGREES
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 225 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 335 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER-DEFINED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT....AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...4 TO
7 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING AT TIMES...AND MAY
RESULT IN MUDSLIDES.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH OR MORE
ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREA...BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON YOUR PROPERTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:15 am

93W INVEST 131015 0600 15.9N 150.7E WPAC 20 1007

BT has pressure down and winds up...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:50 am

046
WWMY80 PGUM 151217 AAA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1017 PM CHST TUE OCT 15 2013

GUZ001>004-160000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1017 PM CHST TUE OCT 15 2013

UPDATED TO FRESHEN POSITION AND INCREASE GUSTS

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS...


TUESDAY EVENING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED EAST OF THE
MARIANAS...WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER NEAR LATITUDE 15 DEGREES
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF SAIPAN AND 240 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER-DEFINED LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT....AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
IS LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING AT TIMES...AND MAY RESULT IN MUDSLIDES.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR MORE
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SOUTH WINDS AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTER THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

IF YOU LIVE IN A LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREA...BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ON YOUR PROPERTY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST
OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/STANKO
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:53 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N
151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED 385 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
NEAR A LOWLEVEL WAVE EVIDENT IN A 142020Z TRMM IMAGE. THE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER,
AN ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS, RELAXING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE
UPPERLEVEL OUTFLOW. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


93W INVEST 131015 1200 15.7N 150.3E WPAC 20 1007
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#7 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:19 pm

Looks like a TS already, I'd go straight to a TS.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 2:30 pm

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 14N 149E WNW SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:36 pm

Wow! GFS has a monster.

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#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:08 pm

Might this really be our next monster? :lol: :eek:
Very active season indeed in WPAC.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#11 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:34 pm

Indeed, since September 11... WPac basin has really turned up the volume, literally.

14 JMA <30kt Depressions of which...
11 became Full Tropical Depressions of which...
10 became Tropical Storms of which...
7 became Typhoons.

Does anyone know of record ACE numbers in a 30day period?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:34 pm

Image

exciting! :D

WTPN23 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.7N 147.8E TO 10.7N 141.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151932Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151633Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED WITH A SLIGHT
CURVATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 151152Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED A 20 KNOT ELONGATED CIRCULATION LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORHEAST
OF GUAM. 161958Z OBSERVATIONS IN GUAM HAVE INDICATED PRESSURES
DROPPING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO 1005.8 HPA WITH 20-24 KNOT WINDS.
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:40 pm

753
WWMY80 PGUM 152240 AAA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

GUZ001>004-161200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
840 AM CHST WED OCT 16 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MARIANAS TODAY...

AT 800 AM THIS MORNING...A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS
CENTERED NEAR 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF GUAM AND 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAIPAN. LATEST INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE THAT
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 12 MPH.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH JUST WEST OF THE MARIANAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WOULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RISING TO
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH BY TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE DEPRESSION MOVES
AND INTENSIFIES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY.

SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 7:44 pm

Obs from Anderson AFB and Guam Airport showing pressure 1004mb with winds coming out from the north at 23mph gusting to 33 mph and 12 mph gusting to 26 mph...

very wet, breezy and raining day...

TPPN12 PGTW 160020

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF GUAM)

B. 15/2332Z

C. 12.9N

D. 145.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/1916Z 13.0N 146.5E SSMS
15/2023Z 13.0N 146.5E SSMS


BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#15 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:02 pm

Hmm... 93W is moving WSW then West...

As WIPHA races to the NE across Japan, will the developing STR across China close the gap and force TD93W to move more equatorward? or will the models hold true and track it NW?

This scenario will have future track ramifications to the entire WestPac coast... with models predicting another monster out of this one.

Image
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Re: WPAC: 26W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:41 pm

This will likely be a major?
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

#17 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm

^This is something we wouldn't want to see getting blocked by the STR. To think that the places to be affected if ever it goes westward are still reeling from Nari and the major earthquake. :( However if it does turn northward, the same areas affected by Wipha will have to face severe weather once more, and could be worse...

Truly, this year is turning out to be one of the most life-threatening typhoon seasons I've seen in a while. There may be a few Cat3+ typhoons but all of them posed a threat to East and SE Asia.
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Re: WPAC: 26W - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:42 pm

JTWC upgrades to TD 26W.

26W TWENTYSIX 131016 0000 12.7N 145.2E WPAC 25 1004
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Re: WPAC: 26W - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 15, 2013 8:50 pm

First warning by JTWC:

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.8N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.9N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.2N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.8N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.4N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.0N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 144.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 152051Z OCT 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN23 PGTW 152100).//
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hurricanes1234
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Re: WPAC: 26W - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 15, 2013 9:02 pm

Let's hope it turns out to sea harmlessly, enough people have been affected by typhoons this year.
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