WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

interesting...

The warmest eye on record is 30°C (86 °F) at 700 hPa measured directly by recon in Super Typhoon Nora in 1973. Nora peaked at 185 mph and a world record pressure of 877mb at the time...

likely surpassed by many typhoons since then...

That record on wikipedia is way outdated

As of I know Typhoons Tip, Vanessa, and Judy all had measured eye temp at or above 30°C

Most recently Hurricane Rita had a warm core of 31°C measured at 700hPa level, even Katrina was 29°C

[Dave C]

The latest sat. loop shows the eye getting smaller. All I can say is WOW!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Typhoon Francisco

[cycloneye]

Up to SuperTyphoon status at 135kts.

26W FRANCISCO 131018 1800 15.9N 141.1E WPAC 135 922

[supercane4867]

What a remarkable remarks

TXPQ29 KNES 181516
TCSWNP

A. 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/1432Z

C. 15.6N

D. 141.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...NEVER HAVE SEEN AN EYE SO WARM (17C - WMG) AND YET SO
SYMMETRIC IN NEARLY ALL COLOR RINGS FROM WHITE TO WMG ALONG EYEWALL. EYE
IS WELL EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR A EYE NO. OF 6.0. CMG RING DOES NOT FULLY
SURROUND BUT WHITE RING WITH WMG EYE STILL YIELDS EYE ADJ. OF PLUS 1.0
FOR A DT OF 7.0. NOW A WEAK BAND DOES WRAP 1/4 AROUND THE STORM FOR A
BANDING FEATURE TO BE ADDED IF THE MET WAS HIGHER...AND THOUGH THE MET
COULD BE JUSTIFIED 7.5 FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO
(COOL EYE AND NOT SYMMETRIC). FELT THAT USING DR TREND JUST TO ADD BAND
FEATURE FOR DT WAS UNREALISTIC AND SO MET IS 7.0. PT IS 7.0 FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

18/1001Z 15.0N 142.0E TMI
18/1002Z 15.1N 141.9E SSMIS
18/1137Z 15.2N 141.9E AMSU


...GALLINA

[hurricanes1234]

What an amazing super typhoon!!!!

[cycloneye]

[summersquall]

[hurricanes1234]

WOW!!!

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Francisco sounds good together...

truly amazing...

WDPN33 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 977 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED 12 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A
SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL AND A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE STORM CENTER. A 181822Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL AND THE MAIN FEEDER BAND.
ADDITIONALLY, A 181600Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES SOME FRAGMENTATION OF
THE FEEDER BAND ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS A 134 KNOT CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE
REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 12 NM EYE REMAINS CLOUD-
FREE AND HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SYMMETRIC ORIENTATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF GUAM. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND AMPLE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW
STY 26W TO INTENSIFY TO A MAXIMUM OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO LESS FAVORABLE SSTS, WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, CAUSING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND TO
BEGIN AND PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 26W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, ALLOWING FOR A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
A DECREASE IN SSTS AND AN INCREASE IN VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY
DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DUE TO VARY SOLUTIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE STR AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PROGRESS
TO THE NORTH. MODEL ENSEMBLES FROM ECMWF, NAVGEM, GFS, AND JMA ALSO
INDICATE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, LEAVING
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WEAKLY DEFINED STR
EXTENSION, AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN


The 7th Major Typhoon of the season and 3th Super Typhoon....

[hurricanes1234]

Super Typhoon Francisco is our second strongest WPAC storm in 2013 and our third strongest worldwide in 2013. Every frame continues to look more and more spectacular. Just look at that cloud-free eye and perfect ring of deep convection around it. And not only what I mentioned above is true, but the outflow is vigorous in all directions. This might already be a Category 5.

[mrbagyo]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[mrbagyo]

another "violent" typhoon

TY 1327 (FRANCISCO)
Issued at 21:50 UTC, 18 October 2013

<Analyses at 18/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N16°00'(16.0°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

[stormkite]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cat 5 is forecast (140 kts) already.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, this could surpass Usagi!

[hurricanes1234]

If it wants to become a Category 5, it must do so within the next 6-12 hours, otherwise it's going to run into colder SSTs. Very close to Category 5.

[cycloneye]

Maybe it has peaked? The 00z Best Track stays as 135kts.

26W FRANCISCO 131019 0000 16.2N 140.4E WPAC 135 922

[stormkite]

2013OCT18 233000 6.6 925.8 129.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF 15.46 -73.51 EYE 19 IR 60.7 16.31 -140.35 COMBO MTSAT2 19.8





Usagi peeked at 7.5 from my record's .

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is forecast to REACH Cat 5 status at 06:00 UTC and not NOW.