WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
That's an illusion you sometimes get from visible.
This is what you look for if you want to see an annular Tropical Cyclone:
This is what you look for if you want to see an annular Tropical Cyclone:
0 likes
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
Category 5 Super Typhoon....
WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 13-NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE MSI
ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG FEEDER BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WEAKER BAND LOOSELY
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 192226Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS SLIGHTLY
DEGRADED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS, AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 72, AN
EXTENSION TO THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND PUSH THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS STY 26W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS. THOUGH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST,
THEY ARE CURRENTLY BEING OFFSET BY ERCS AND A TONGUE OF COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). FRANCISCO APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO SUSTAIN 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCOMB TO INCREASING VWS AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS WELL AS EVEN COLDER SSTS
WHICH WILL FURTHER ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. HOWEVER, INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW COULD POTENTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND HELP SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION, THEREBY TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY FRANCISCO WILL BEGIN TO CREST THE STR AXIS,
ALLOWING FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE TOWARD JAPAN. A DECREASE IN SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
WIDELY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS INDICATE
SOME DEGREE OF A RECURVE SCENARIO, BUT WIDELY VARY IN THE TIGHTNESS
OF THE TURN AS WELL AS TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 13-NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY A WELL DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE MSI
ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG FEEDER BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A WEAKER BAND LOOSELY
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 192226Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS SLIGHTLY
DEGRADED IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS, AND COULD BE THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 48, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 72, AN
EXTENSION TO THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND PUSH THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS STY 26W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS. THOUGH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST,
THEY ARE CURRENTLY BEING OFFSET BY ERCS AND A TONGUE OF COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). FRANCISCO APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS
PEAK INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO SUSTAIN 140 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL SUCCOMB TO INCREASING VWS AS IT
APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AS WELL AS EVEN COLDER SSTS
WHICH WILL FURTHER ERODE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. HOWEVER, INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW COULD POTENTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND HELP SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION, THEREBY TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY FRANCISCO WILL BEGIN TO CREST THE STR AXIS,
ALLOWING FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE TOWARD JAPAN. A DECREASE IN SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
WIDELY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS INDICATE
SOME DEGREE OF A RECURVE SCENARIO, BUT WIDELY VARY IN THE TIGHTNESS
OF THE TURN AS WELL AS TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:ozonepete wrote:GCANE wrote:7C core temp - a monster
Wow! You won't see that very often, for sure.
not really...those high readings are very common here and in fact Typhoon Wipha earlier this month had an 11C core temp...
I said you don't see it very often.
So you're saying you do see it very often?
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
I also don't think this is annular. If you want to see an annular supertyphoon, look for STY Sanba from last year. Either way, annular or not, Francisco looks very impressive. I am not sure though if it surpassed Usagi...IMO I was more in awe by Usagi's appearance and sheer size at its peak..
And here we go again with JTWC's late upgrade to STY, IMO Francisco was a supertyphoon AND a Category 5 much earlier...
And here we go again with JTWC's late upgrade to STY, IMO Francisco was a supertyphoon AND a Category 5 much earlier...
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Hey DT numbers are dropping. Just as they upgraded it to a Cat5? Looks like EWRC is taking its toll now...
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
dexterlabio wrote:I also don't think this is annular. If you want to see an annular supertyphoon, look for STY Sanba from last year. Either way, annular or not, Francisco looks very impressive. I am not sure though if it surpassed Usagi...IMO I was more in awe by Usagi's appearance and sheer size at its peak..
And here we go again with JTWC's late upgrade to STY, IMO Francisco was a supertyphoon AND a Category 5 much earlier...
Hi dex! Yeah I agree, although right now this looks to have incredibly good symmetry, I think even more than Usagi had at its best.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
GCANE wrote:7C core temp - a monster
isn't this the "anomaly" of the temp (in this case +7) in the core?? i read somewhere that is based near the troposphere hundreds of km away from the center.. or maybe i'm reading the graph wrong...
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re:
dexterlabio wrote:Hey DT numbers are dropping. Just as they upgraded it to a Cat5? Looks like EWRC is taking its toll now...
Yup, and it's beginning the recurve and may be starting to take in a little of the mid-level dry air to its northwest. You can see the CDO is getting more banded instead of solid now so I'd have to agree that this has peaked. It should start a slow weakening now.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
phwxenthusiast wrote:GCANE wrote:7C core temp - a monster
isn't this the "anomaly" of the temp (in this case +7) in the core?? i read somewhere that is based near the troposphere hundreds of km away from the center.. or maybe i'm reading the graph wrong...
Yes. It's not the actual temp readings but the departure from what's expected. Although I don't know what you mean by "based near the troposphere hundreds of km away from the center" ??
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
ozonepete wrote:phwxenthusiast wrote:isn't this the "anomaly" of the temp (in this case +7) in the core?? i read somewhere that is based near the troposphere hundreds of km away from the center.. or maybe i'm reading the graph wrong...
Yes. It's not the actual temp readings but the departure from what's expected. Although I don't know what you mean by "based near the troposphere hundreds of km away from the center" ??
i just remember reading a paper many months ago on the relationship between the temp anomaly and current intensity of a cyclone... i read that the temperature anomaly is between the measurements from the AMSU on the center of the cyclone and a similar reading hundreds of km away... it's hard to explain but i hope i can find that paper again...
0 likes
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
dexterlabio wrote:I also don't think this is annular. If you want to see an annular supertyphoon, look for STY Sanba from last year. Either way, annular or not, Francisco looks very impressive. I am not sure though if it surpassed Usagi...IMO I was more in awe by Usagi's appearance and sheer size at its peak..
And here we go again with JTWC's late upgrade to STY, IMO Francisco was a supertyphoon AND a Category 5 much earlier...
Well, sure, I was hesitant in saying that it WAS annular, but it does seem pretty close if you consider that the intensity has been nearly steady for the past 12-24 hours and it's not expected to change drastically for the next day or two.
0 likes
NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
I said you don't see it very often.
So you're saying you do see it very often?
yes
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
the eye is filling in.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:I said you don't see it very often.
So you're saying you do see it very often?
yes
No. Not temperature anomalies. I think you're thinking that's a core temp. It's not. It's the departure of AMSU from the forecast norm.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
Fyzn94 wrote:Well, sure, I was hesitant in saying that it WAS annular, but it does seem pretty close if you consider that the intensity has been nearly steady for the past 12-24 hours and it's not expected to change drastically for the next day or two.
Yeah I agree on it being almost annular, it has very nice symmetry (made it seem to have no banding) and looks to have helped maintaining that intensity for a long time... But I don't know, IMO Sanba looks closer to being "annular" lol.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3407
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
ozonepete wrote:
Hi dex! Yeah I agree, although right now this looks to have incredibly good symmetry, I think even more than Usagi had at its best.
The large size and very cold cloud tops at Usagi's peak strength did it for me. But I agree Francisco has (or had) a very nice symmetry.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
Yes. And you were correct earlier that this is not annular at all. I posted images of 3 annular storms before. This is not annular at all. Annular TCs have a "truck tire" or doughnut shape with a very large eye. Francisco has never had anything close to that shape.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
It's now going through an ERC while recurving into the westerlies and that's going to weaken it. It's highly unlikely it will ever get back to the strength it was and should gradually weaken from here on.
0 likes
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon
Yeah I agree on it being almost annular, it has very nice symmetry (made it seem to have no banding) and looks to have helped maintaining that intensity for a long time... But I don't know, IMO Sanba looks closer to being "annular" lol.
I actually doubt if Sanba really became annular- the eye is not that big and it doesn't have that truck tire appearance...
textbook WPAC annular typhoons are Typhoon Nestor(1997) and typhoon Longwang(2005)
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests