WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2844
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re:

#181 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 2:21 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Wonder why it isn't called (super) typhoon. Anyways, 145 kts is forecast and winds are 140 kts!


Lol, you're right, they dropped the "super" in this advisory, it was a STY 6 hours ago.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3506
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:

Re: Re:

#182 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 19, 2013 2:25 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Wonder why it isn't called (super) typhoon. Anyways, 145 kts is forecast and winds are 140 kts!


Lol, you're right, they dropped the "super" in this advisory, it was a STY 6 hours ago.

140 kts is obviously a super typhoon. I mean a cat 5! HAHA...

Maybe the personnel were just .... or they just forgot...
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2695
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#183 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 7:43 am

Category 5 Super Typhoon Francisco ... what an amazing storm.


Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#184 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:11 am

a perfect circular ring of very cold cloud top now surrounds the eye embedded right in the middle of a very compact typhoon ...this is way stronger than 140 knots at the moment...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2612
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#185 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:48 am

I would like to point out that Francisco has been getting at least a 7.0 from ADT for over 24 continuous hours. That is very impressive.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#186 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:25 am

2013OCT19 153200 7.3 906.4 149.0 7.2 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.47 -78.15 EYE 17 IR 58.7 17.30 -138.48 COMBO MTSAT2 21.6

Current Estimate
RAW
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re:

#187 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:28 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:I would like to point out that Francisco has been getting at least a 7.0 from ADT for over 24 continuous hours. That is very impressive.


ADT is probrably confused with the intensity as we are so they went with the lowest number a category 5 can achieve as an average when in fact this is way stronger! :lol:
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#188 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:30 am

WDPN33 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 844 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL 15-NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY A SHARPLY-OUTLINED DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM,
PROVIDING A HIGHLY-EFFICIENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
PEAKING AT 145 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES, WHICH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
COROLLARY TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS ALSO INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND SUSTAIN THE
CONVECTION, THEREBY TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY FRANCISCO WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR, ALLOWING FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING A
NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE. A DECREASE IN SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
WIDELY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NAVGEM, INDICATE RECURVATURE BUT WIDELY VARY IN
THE DEGREE OF TURN AND TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIAS TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AT
THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3116
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#189 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:53 pm

In contrast of those on SSD, the 8.1.5 version of CIMSS-ADT is ridiculous

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/26W-list.txt
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27374
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#190 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:29 pm

So how high is the real actual intensity? That ADT analysis supports an intensity of 150 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re:

#191 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:38 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:So how high is the real actual intensity? That ADT analysis supports an intensity of 150 kt.


Those are estimates...If recon were to go in, they would probrably find winds of 155 knots and a central pressure of 880mb as pressure in the area is the lowest globally...

Real intensity always lead the satellite estimates in very strong tropical cyclones especially cat'5s...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: Re:

#192 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 19, 2013 2:16 pm

euro6208 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:So how high is the real actual intensity? That ADT analysis supports an intensity of 150 kt.


Those are estimates...If recon were to go in, they would probrably find winds of 155 knots and a central pressure of 880mb as pressure in the area is the lowest globally...

Real intensity always lead the satellite estimates in very strong tropical cyclones especially cat'5s...


dont be sure about the pressures

recon found Megi had 175 KT winds, yet the pressure was 890 mb
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2695
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#193 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 4:20 pm

Latest. Still a very powerful typhoon.


Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#194 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 19, 2013 7:25 pm

Incredible. I can see hot towers firing in the inner and outer bands. Can't even count them all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/26W/imagery/vis-animated.gif
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#195 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 19, 2013 7:26 pm

7C core temp - a monster

Image
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#196 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 19, 2013 7:29 pm

TD 27 firing up behind Francisco in the wake of an anomaly on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/wpac/main.html
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4539
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#197 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 19, 2013 9:59 pm

GCANE wrote:7C core temp - a monster

Image


Wow! You won't see that very often, for sure.
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2020
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#198 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:19 pm

still a "violent" cat 5 whilst undergoing eyewall replacement cycle...wow
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Fyzn94
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:00 pm
Location: Central AR, USA

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#199 Postby Fyzn94 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:30 pm

mrbagyo wrote:still a "violent" cat 5 whilst undergoing eyewall replacement cycle...wow

Looks almost annular.
Image
0 likes   
NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15401
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#200 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:37 pm

ozonepete wrote:
GCANE wrote:7C core temp - a monster



Wow! You won't see that very often, for sure.


not really...those high readings are very common here and in fact Typhoon Wipha earlier this month had an 11C core temp...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests