WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#221 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 20, 2013 6:40 am

^I said that based on the category of "no banding around the intense ring of convection", which it seemed to show at one point But yeah thinking about it, the eye wasn't that large compared to that of Typhoon Longwang and Hurricane Epsilon.... And I also remember JTWC noted that too when Sanba first became super.



Right now Francisco doesn't look like a Cat5 and a supertyphoon anymore...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#222 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:06 am

Down to 125 knots...

WDPN33 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS HAVE LOOSENED SLIGHTLY. IN EFFECT, TY 26W HAS
BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT ELONGATION
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 200947Z TRMM PASS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES RANGING FROM 120 TO 127
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS
BECOME APPARENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS, AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND PUSH THE TRACK
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS TY 26W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
PARTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION, THEREBY
TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY FRANCISCO WILL CREST THE STR AXIS, ALLOWING
FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE TOWARD EASTERN JAPAN. COOLING SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASE
IN VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96 THROUGH TAU 120,
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO VARYING
SOLUTIONS TO THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. ALL OBJECTIVE
AIDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF A RECURVE SCENARIO, BUT WIDELY VARY IN
THE TIGHTNESS OF THE TURN AS WELL AS TRACK SPEED. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIASED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STEERING MECHANISM AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#223 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:10 am

Francisco certainly will ramp up the ACE big time...already at 25, i think it's safe to say francisco will contribute 50 units...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#224 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 20, 2013 1:29 pm

I don't know about 50. Even Usagi's ACE didn't make past 30-40...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#225 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 20, 2013 3:46 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#226 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 20, 2013 4:20 pm

So it's going directly over Tokyo. Luckily it will be weaker but should be strong enough (cat 1 or near it) that it will cause big problems there. Worse still is it will go right over the Fukushima nuclear site. God knows they don't need this. Sheesh.
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#227 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 20, 2013 7:07 pm

eye popping up again...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#228 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 20, 2013 9:22 pm

While it never did before, now it's starting to look a little annular. It is now in one of the better circumstances to become annular, doing a recurve over marginal SSTs while it has weak but steady convection and good symmetry with an eye growing considerably in diameter. Let's see if it does.

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#229 Postby ozonepete » Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:09 pm

Very symmetric eye now. Far from annular (truck tire shape) but it could get there. It would need to drop the inward spiral form and get the big circle form rotating around a large circular eye.

Image
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#230 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:23 pm

Category 3 105 knots...

WDPN33 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 613 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
RAGGED FILLED-EYE FEATURE THAT HAS PERSISTED WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOOSEN, RESULTING IN A
SLIGHTLY LARGER OVERALL WIND FIELD. THE EYE FEATURE APPEARS FAIRLY
ELONGATED AND LACKING SYMMETRY IN THE MSI. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A
SLIGHT ELONGATION OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY AS THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW ESTABLISHED A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. A 210019Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI ANIMATION AS WELL AS THE AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OBSERVED IN THE MSI IS ALSO APPARENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING, BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD SPECIFICALLY AROUND THE RECURVE POINT IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.
B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTERWARDS,
AN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND PUSH THE
TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS TY 26W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ALSO AID IN THE WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER,
THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND
HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION, THEREBY TEMPERING THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY FRANCISCO WILL CREST THE STR AXIS, ALLOWING
FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND SETTING INTO A NORTHEASTWARD
RECURVATURE OVER EASTERN JAPAN. COOLING SSTS AND FURTHER INCREASING
VWS WILL AMPLIFY THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRIEFLY TRACK OVER EASTERN JAPAN AND THEN REEMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
IMPROVED, BUT REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND BEYOND DUE TO
VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR.
OBJECTIVE AIDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM AND THE JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE, HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITHIN A REASONABLE SPREAD AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY VARY IN THE TIGHTNESS OF THE TURN AND TRACK SPEED AROUND
THE RECURVE POINT. JGSM AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE ARE WESTWARD
OUTLIERS AND INDICATE TRACKS MUCH CLOSER TO OKINAWA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS BIASED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED, DUE
TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING MECHANISM AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#231 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:55 pm

Image

Image

impressive...
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#232 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:48 am

Annular typhoon...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#233 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:32 am

90 knots Category 2...

WDPN33 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS CONVECTIVE
FEEDER BANDS BECAME SHALLOWER AND FRAGMENTED. HOWEVER, A CLOUD-FILLED
EYE REMAINS READILY APPARENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND IN AN AREA OF WEAK (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS ALSO APPARENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. IN THE NEAR TO MID-TERM, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD WESTWARD AND PUSH THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AS TY 26W
BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 26W WILL CREST THE STR
AXIS AND BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE TOWARD EASTERN JAPAN. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. HOWEVER, THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THE WEAKENING TREND.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY FRANCISCO WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY
TRACK OVER EASTERN JAPAN AND THEN REEMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AS
A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED, BUT
REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO VARYING SOLUTIONS TO THE
ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR. JGSM AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE
ARE WESTWARD OUTLIERS AND INDICATE TRACKS MUCH CLOSER TO OKINAWA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS
BIASED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT
HAS IMPROVED, DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING
MECHANISM AT THE MID TO THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#234 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:07 am

Typhoon Francisco is now the most energetic storm worldwide for 2013...
current ACE now stands at 31.5325... and he's not yet finished..
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#235 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:29 pm

Image

75 knots category 1...

WDPN33 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS TY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION
REMAINS COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND A 15 NM DEFINED EYE. A 221156Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A CONSISTENT STRUCTURE WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE
EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE STEADY STRUCTURE AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD THAT RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM
IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY FRANCISCO
HAS BEEN TRACKING STEADILY TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A STEADY TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 36, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CHINA, IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARDS JAPAN AND
BEGIN TO PRESS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY
26W TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFYING STR. FURTHER
DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND INCREASING VWS FROM THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 72 WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS, WITH THE COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE
SYSTEM EXPECTED BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AS THERE ARE VARIANCES IN THE EXTENT STR AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE AREA. DUE TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN
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#236 Postby stormkite » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:51 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#237 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:55 pm

Image

eyewall approaching okinawa...

WDPN33 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AROUND THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE EYE HAS NOT
BEEN VISIBLE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS ISOLATED
FROM THE TROPICAL AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN AT MARGINAL VALUES NEAR 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
VENTILATED WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). IT IS THIS IMPROVED OUTFLOW THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH AS THE DRY AIR AND DECREASING SSTS
WEAKEN THE LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE. TY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A STEADY TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 12, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CHINA, IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARDS JAPAN AND
BEGIN TO PRESS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY
26W TO SLOWLY BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFYING STR. FURTHER
DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND INCREASING VWS FROM THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 72 WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS, WITH THE COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE
SYSTEM EXPECTED BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AS THERE ARE VARIANCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#238 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:01 pm

Image

WDPN33 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO SLIGHTLY DEVOLVE AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STEADILY
WEAKENED DUE TO THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A
231842Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEVOLVING STRUCTURE AS THE
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP, RADAR FIXES FROM RJTD, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
DECREASING STRUCTURE AND FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED
TO INCREASE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) LEVELS. TY 26W HAS SLOWED AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MODIFY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW TURN
NORTH ALONG THE MODIFYING STR AS THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARDS JAPAN. AS TY 26W GAINS
LATITUDE, THE MODIFYING STR WILL ACCELERATE TY 26W TO THE NORTHEAST.
FURTHER DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS FROM THE TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFYING STR AND PRESSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ERODE THE
SYSTEM. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN AROUND TAU 48, WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION
TO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM EXPECTED BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE EXTENT OF THE STR AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THIS, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN, MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN


Image

eyewall just southeast of okinawa...
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Typhoon

#239 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:52 am

WDPN33 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EVEN AS THE SYSTEM HAS ELONGATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEPTH HAS REMAINED THE SAME.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE FROM A 241034Z SSMI/S PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY VERY CLOSE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS CRESTED THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED TO THE EAST AND IS NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS FRANCISCO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT GETS
EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
COMMENCE AROUND TAU 24, WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM-FORCE
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS STRATEGY IS TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK
TENDENCIES. //
NNNN
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#240 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:35 pm

Actually, Francisco WAS an annular typhoon due to the fact that this is a long-lived typhoon and despite wind shear & cold sea surface temperatures, it was still at typhoon strength.
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