WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

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Spin
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#241 Postby Spin » Fri Oct 25, 2013 12:41 am

Check your definition of “annular” again.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Tropical Storm

#242 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 25, 2013 3:27 am

It just looked annular, but the banding thing when it still had an eye made me think otherwise... Didn't look like a perfect "wheel" to me.
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Tropical Storm

#243 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 3:41 am

50 knots


WDPN33 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 38//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECAME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE REMNANT CONVECTION, CONFINED ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLANK, IS NOW EXPOSED TO SEVERE SHEARING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. THE MSI ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ENTERED
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY THE STEADY INFLUX OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM VERY
CLOSE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
COMMENCE AROUND TAU 12, WITH COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A GALE-FORCE
COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS STRATEGY IS USED TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK
TENDENCIES. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Tropical Storm

#244 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 11:13 am

WDPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 39//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) BECAME MORE EXPOSED. THE REMNANT CONVECTION, CONFINED ALONG
THE NORTHWEST FLANK, IS BEING GROSSLY SHEARED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.
THE EIR ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES A STEADY INFLUX OF COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS DEEPER
INTO THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
A HOOK FEATURE ON A 251023Z SSMI/S PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. TS 26W IS NOW UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW
BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE
RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
STRATEGY IS USED TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK TENDENCIES. //
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: FRANCISCO - Tropical Storm

#245 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 10:53 pm

Image

the once great powerful typhoon has died...

WTPN33 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.9N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 36.3N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 139.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON A
251621Z AMSU-B IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS, WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. IR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS THAT TS 26W IS CLEARLY UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND HAS LOST IDENTIFIABLE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
TS FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#246 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Oct 26, 2013 9:16 am

Last advisory on Francisco

Sea East Of Japan

** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1327 FRANCISCO (1327)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 34N 144E
MOVE ENE 35KT
PRES 988HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM =
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#247 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Oct 27, 2013 1:40 am

Bye bye.
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