EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

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EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:36 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310180231
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013101800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962013
EP, 96, 2013101706, , BEST, 0, 98N, 886W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101712, , BEST, 0, 99N, 900W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101718, , BEST, 0, 100N, 911W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2013101800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 922W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115851&hilit=&p=2352655#p2352655
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 0% / 30%

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 17, 2013 9:59 pm

First Bam model run for this invest.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0251 UTC FRI OCT 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131018 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131018 0000 131018 1200 131019 0000 131019 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 92.5W 10.2N 94.2W 10.8N 95.8W 11.6N 97.1W
BAMD 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.4W 11.1N 95.8W 11.8N 96.8W
BAMM 9.8N 92.5W 10.4N 94.7W 11.4N 96.4W 12.2N 97.6W
LBAR 9.8N 92.5W 10.3N 94.7W 11.4N 97.0W 12.6N 99.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 28KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131020 0000 131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 98.1W 13.2N 99.8W 14.2N 100.9W 14.4N 102.3W
BAMD 12.3N 97.6W 12.9N 98.8W 14.0N 99.4W 15.0N 99.9W
BAMM 12.8N 98.7W 13.6N 100.1W 14.3N 100.8W 14.5N 101.6W
LBAR 13.8N 101.0W 16.4N 102.8W 19.9N 101.5W 25.1N 96.4W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 65KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 92.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 90.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 87.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 0% / 30%

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:59 am

10/40

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2013

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 10% / 40%

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:43 am

20/40

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS...THOUGH DISORGANIZED...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 20% / 40%

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2013 12:40 pm

30% / 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED TODAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 1:56 pm

ECMWF continues to be very bullish on this system

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 3:03 pm

Models actually intensifying system each run. Definitely has potential. Category 2, anybody?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#8 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:55 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Models actually intensifying system each run. Definitely has potential. Category 2, anybody?

I'd say there is a good chance this becomes the strongest system of the season. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS to remain less than 10 knots for the next 5 days at least. Being a slow-mover, sea surface temperatures will not decrease beyond 28C while an incoming convectively-coupled kelvin wave and robust MJO signature (at least at 200mb) cross the basin.

Here's hoping!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#9 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:25 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Models actually intensifying system each run. Definitely has potential. Category 2, anybody?

I'd say there is a good chance this becomes the strongest system of the season. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS to remain less than 10 knots for the next 5 days at least. Being a slow-mover, sea surface temperatures will not decrease beyond 28C while an incoming convectively-coupled kelvin wave and robust MJO signature (at least at 200mb) cross the basin.

Here's hoping!



There's no floater up yet for 96E, but I can definitely say with conviction that this doesn't look bad at all right now. One last chance for a major hurricane to form. In my ameteur opinion, I would give it up to 25% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Would be one of the latest forming (maybe the second latest) if it does manage to become a major. Many things right now seem to be going for it - very weak shear for a while again, the warmest waters in the basin, and an MJO pulse.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#10 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:29 pm

Robust structure with good convection.


Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 30% / 50%

#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:55 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Models actually intensifying system each run. Definitely has potential. Category 2, anybody?

I'd say there is a good chance this becomes the strongest system of the season. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS to remain less than 10 knots for the next 5 days at least. Being a slow-mover, sea surface temperatures will not decrease beyond 28C while an incoming convectively-coupled kelvin wave and robust MJO signature (at least at 200mb) cross the basin.

Here's hoping!



There's no floater up yet for 96E, but I can definitely say with conviction that this doesn't look bad at all right now. One last chance for a major hurricane to form. In my ameteur opinion, I would give it up to 25% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Would be one of the latest forming (maybe the second latest) if it does manage to become a major. Many things right now seem to be going for it - very weak shear for a while again, the warmest waters in the basin, and an MJO pulse.

Use RAMMB.

Link
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:32 pm

40%/60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:48 pm

Getting there.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 18, 2013 7:48 pm

00z Best Track.

EP, 96, 2013101900, , BEST, 0, 107N, 972W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

00z run.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131019 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131019 0000 131019 1200 131020 0000 131020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 97.2W 11.3N 98.5W 11.6N 99.3W 11.9N 99.8W
BAMD 10.7N 97.2W 11.2N 98.4W 11.5N 99.3W 11.6N 99.9W
BAMM 10.7N 97.2W 11.6N 98.5W 12.2N 99.5W 12.6N 100.2W
LBAR 10.7N 97.2W 11.4N 99.1W 12.3N 100.9W 13.2N 102.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000 131024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 100.1W 13.0N 100.3W 13.4N 100.6W 13.6N 101.4W
BAMD 11.7N 100.4W 12.0N 100.9W 12.5N 101.2W 12.9N 101.7W
BAMM 12.8N 100.4W 13.3N 100.8W 13.9N 100.9W 14.3N 101.4W
LBAR 14.4N 103.5W 17.7N 104.0W 21.6N 102.2W 25.8N 98.1W
SHIP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 95.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 92.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#15 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:29 pm

T1.0/25kt

EP, 96, 201310182345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1060N, 9690W, , 1, 25, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, GR, I, 2, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 8:40 pm

This is organising fast! Can't believe the SHIPS brings this to an 88-knot Category 2. This surely has a chance at becoming a major, if not, very close. Maybe between 85 mph and 110 mph, if not a major.


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#17 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:32 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:This is organising fast! Can't believe the SHIPS brings this to an 88-knot Category 2. This surely has a chance at becoming a major, if not, very close. Maybe between 85 mph and 110 mph, if not a major.


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You're taking the models too literally. The SHIPS can often be bullish.

This may have a chance to become a major. But I've said that with almost every storm this year until lately.

Anyone here remember pre-Rosa 12, which the GFS showed it bombing out for like 7 days straight and it was a wimpy TS So, I'd keep my expectations tempered for now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 40% / 60%

#18 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:18 am

50/70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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#19 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 12:29 am

The 0z GFS joined the 12z ECMWF in making this a potent hurricane next week. It wouldn't surprise me; I think this has a decent chance to become a major hurricane for the factors I listed a few posts ago. Global models say it will be slow to organize for the next few days though, and we're seeing that right now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 50% / 70%

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 19, 2013 6:28 am

60%/80%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THIS LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


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