EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[hurricanes1234]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

[Yellow Evan]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

[hurricanes1234]

20:45 image.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

Barbara took 30 hours to go from TD to HU. Felicia, Jimena, and Rick all took 24 hours to go from tropical depression status to hurricane intensity. If Hurricane Raymond is declared at 8pm PDT, it would tie them all.

Humberto holds the record at 18 hours IIRC (don't hold me to that!).

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

Barbara took 30 hours to go from TD to HU. Felicia, Jimena, and Rick all took 24 hours to go from tropical depression status to hurricane intensity. If Hurricane Raymond is declared at 8pm PDT, it would tell them all.

Humberto holds the record at 18 hours IIRC (don't hold me to that!).

Are you talking about 2013, 2007, 2001 or 1995 Humberto?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2007's Atlantic Humberto.

[Yellow Evan]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

Barbara took 30 hours to go from TD to HU. Felicia, Jimena, and Rick all took 24 hours to go from tropical depression status to hurricane intensity. If Hurricane Raymond is declared at 8pm PDT, it would tie them all.

Humberto holds the record at 18 hours IIRC (don't hold me to that!).

Well, I think it's of Raymond duration could be extended to 18z in post-storm analysis, sorta like what they did with Felicia and Jimena. BTW, Kiko 83 once went from a TS to Cat 3 in 24 hours IIRC.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Thanks so much! Oh boy, that storm.
Anyway... back to Ray.... does anyone want to think that this storm will RI or not?

DISCLAMER!
VThe posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

It's already rapidly intensifying. And I think it will go on for another 18 hours or so.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks so much! Oh boy, that storm.
Anyway... back to Ray.... does anyone want to think that this storm will RI or not?

DISCLAMER!
VThe posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It has been since around 18z. Not gonna guess on who long it will continue. Knowing this year, it'll somehow magically stop RI'ing once it looks like a lock for a major like Gil and Henriette.

[supercane4867]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

I remember Elida of 2002 went from low end TD to a CAT5 just 48 hours after formation, never seen anything like this anywhere in the world

[supercane4867]

18Z GFS performing an impressive model show

[Yellow Evan]

Band of deep convection now wrapping around the eye. An important point to remember - this was an 80% invest just 24 hours ago!!! This has to be a record from TD to hurricane, just 24 hours! (when it attains it at 8 PM PDT)

No, not even close, I've seen far faster outburtsts. Look at Felicia 09, Jimena 09, and Rick 09. Hec, even Barbabra this year.

I remember Elida of 2002 went from low end TD to a CAT5 just 48 hours after formation, never seen anything like this anywhere in the world

Linda 97 is also up there in terms of RI. In the WPAC, Forrest 83 is the RI king. In the ATL, Wilma, Igor, and Ike are.

[Yellow Evan]

18Z GFS performing an impressive model show

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_70.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_76.png

A November storm near Baja! That's unheard of. It's after turnction and the GFS has a tendency to do show 2 storms instead oif 1 in these types of cases. Doubt it will happen tbh.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye for real, though a tad of dry air is getting in the way.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

18Z GFS performing an impressive model show

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_70.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pac_76.png

OMG LORENZO?!?! :O
Anyways. Does this mean that Sonia is coming here too? Sonny with a chance!
Sonia could look like a Kenneth, INNIT MAN!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd assess the odds of this making landfall versus it not at 60%/40%. Since this is becoming vertically deep, it will feel the influence of the weakness over northern Mexico more.

Hurricane warnings will likely be put up tomorrow morning, if not at the next advisory.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I'd assess the odds of this making landfall versus it not at 60%/40%. Since this is becoming vertically deep, it will feel the influence of the weakness over northern Mexico more.

Hurricane warnings will likely be put up tomorrow morning, if not at the next advisory.

Oh dear!

[weathernerdguy]

It's a hurricane according to MIMIC-TC

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF
OAXACA AND MICHOACAN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG