EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[tolakram]

Euro continues to show some healthy re-strengthening in a few days. I wonder if it can make another run at a major.

[cycloneye]

Down to 45kts.

EP, 17, 2013102318, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1034W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 30, 50, 1008, 120, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,

[wxman57]

Visible satellite indicates a swirl of low clouds about 125 miles west of a small area of diminishing squalls. There were a couple of 40kt barbs visible in an OSCAT pass last evening when squalls were heavier, but those squalls are now gone. Current estimate of 45 kts is likely quite generous. Maybe 30 kts now.

[HurricaneBelle]

Everybody loved Raymond - when he was a Cat 3.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE
CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL
SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG-
TERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF
DELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC
FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[supercane4867]

Everybody loved Raymond - when he was a Cat 3.

LOL

Let's see if he can get some convection back on as entering warmer water

[CrazyC83]

The Euro model has been right once already...what are the SST's beneath it since there was serious upwelling?

[hurricanes1234]

How long can Raymond last under these conditions? Because Raymond must first survive now, before it can restrengthen! Looks like it's falling apart.

[supercane4867]

Deep convection firing up on the edge of LLC

[hurricanes1234]

Cloud tops are cooling considerably and forming closer to the centre, let's see if it can respond to diurnal maximum.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

ALTHOUGH RAYMOND DOES NOT RESEMBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES
TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. MY BEST GUESS
IS THAT RAYMOND WILL RE-INTENSIFY A LITTLE IN A DAY OR SO...SINCE
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS REVERSE THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN
ADDITION...RAYMOND IS MOVING TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN. WITH THIS IN
MIND...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
BEYOND 24 HOURS.

THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY EVEN MORE...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE
TRAPPED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RAYMOND LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY GAIN
LATITUDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN WHICH BOTH THE
RELIABLE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.3N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 14.0N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 13.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 13.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[hurricanes1234]

Can't wait to see Hurricane Raymond Part II. If this can stay as a strong TS for a few days, the EPAC ACE will probably get a lot closer to average levels. I personally think this might have a chance at hurricane strength again.

[supercane4867]

Come back to life

[wxman57]

I'm not sure Raymond still has an LLC. I see something that may have been the exposed swirl from yesterday way out west of the convection (160 miles). Would help to get an OSCAT or ASCAT pass to see if there is still a circulation close to the convection near the NHC's position.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013

A BURSTING PATTERN OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE
APPARENT CENTER OF RAYMOND DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND EARLY-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT
DEFINITIVELY SHOW THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 35-45 KT AS A CURRENT WIND SPEED...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INITIAL POSITION I HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP 40 KT AS THE INTENSITY.

RAYMOND SEEMS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH NO SIGN OF THE
SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST A RETURN
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT
TIME...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ERODE THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF
RAYMOND. THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN SHOWING A SHARP
RECURVATURE OF THE CYCLONE BY 120W...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER
RELIABLE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5. SINCE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING SINGLE MODEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS SEASON...IT SEEMS WISE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW 12Z MODEL
RUNS COME OUT BEFORE MAKING ANY LONG-RANGE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
PREDICTION...BETWEEN TVCE AND THE ECMWF.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERPLEXING THIS MORNING. WHILE ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER
WARM WATER...NONE OF THEM SAVE THE GFDL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR AND SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR
WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS...BUT THESE DO NOT SEEM NEGATIVE
ENOUGH TO CAP STRENGTHENING THAT MUCH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE FORECAST HAD TO BE
RAISED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.8N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.6N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 14.7N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Interesting conversation by the form of tweets by some experts about why Raymond made that RI period. The Kelvin Wave that moved thru at that time played a roll.

Michael R. Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 15h
@MJVentrice Imagine it played a part, especially with shallow mixed layer. Thoughts on CCKW role on RI?

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 15h
@MichaelRLowry CCKW likely played a role in genesis- tough to attribute it to RI though. Likely more of inner eye dyn http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ven ... lyses.html …

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 15h
@MJVentrice @MichaelRLowry I was leaning toward this being a good case of RI as CCKW passed-- it was almost simultaneous on your figs

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 15h
@EricBlake12 @MichaelRLowry I guess you can't rule it out but how do you prove it? Now that I look at it again, it does time extremely well

Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel 14h
@MJVentrice @EricBlake12 @MichaelRLowry did the Kelvin wave dynamics reduce the inertial stability near #Raymond's tropopause?


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 13h
@GregPostel @MJVentrice @EricBlake12 @MichaelRLowry Would be interesting to plot tropopause height over Raymond with time & compare w/ CCKW.

[supercane4867]

Up to 45kt

EP, 17, 2013102418, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1063W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 20, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,

[hurricanes1234]

Raymond is strengthening!

[hurricanes1234]

Impressive burst of cooling cloud tops over the no longer exposed centre. What amazes me is that this system is able to generate convection like this at diurnal minimum.

[wxman57]

Got an ASCAT pass over Raymond a few hours ago. It indicated max winds may be about 30 kts.