So then this will likely be another weak and struggling TS, then. This year, barely anything had true potential, just more and more overestimation. Of course, if this does attain the strength it was initially forecasted to, then the above statement doesn't apply here, but assuming it does little, then it applies.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 100% / 100%
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supercane4867
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- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 100% / 100%
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962013_ep172013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310200039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep962013_ep172013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310200039
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 100% / 100% - It has been renumbered
EP, 17, 2013102000, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1003W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E - 100% / 100%
Consolidating ...
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 100.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN BANDING AROUND THE CENTER.
BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF WARM WATER...
A MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR....SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE NHC
FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SOME DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
BACK WESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK BRINGS THE
CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...
THEN SHOWS IT TURNING WESTWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 14.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.5N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.2N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 15.8N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.1N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 16.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.1N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 100.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN BANDING AROUND THE CENTER.
BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF WARM WATER...
A MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR....SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE NHC
FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SOME DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH LAND.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...
INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN
BACK WESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK BRINGS THE
CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...
THEN SHOWS IT TURNING WESTWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 14.0N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.5N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.2N 101.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 15.8N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.1N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 16.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.1N 101.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 17.0N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
cycloneye wrote:http://oi40.tinypic.com/2hgvbq0.jpg
Interesting track. Sorta like Tico 83's track when it first formed.
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hurricanes1234
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- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression
Very compact little depression that looks almost like a TS now.
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Hurricane_Luis
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
TD 17E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Raymond
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 200833
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT
STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER
DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE
A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL
PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD
TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND
BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
THE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT
STILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER
DATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE
A SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS
ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL
PROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL
TURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD
TURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND
BEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...RAYMOND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATER
TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO MEANDER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...RAYMOND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO LATER
TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO MEANDER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY LATE MONDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
12z Best Track up to 45kts.
EP, 17, 2013102012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1016W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M
EP, 17, 2013102012, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1016W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
Nice banding and good convection. You might also notice that there's an area of strong convection that is to the southeast of Raymond.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...RAYMOND STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 101.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
RAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER
CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR
EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...
STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME.
WHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND
OFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
...RAYMOND STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 101.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013
RAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER
CORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO
45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
SHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR
EVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...
STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH
SHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME.
WHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND
OFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
First clear visible - just look at the cirrus clouds in that northern rainband. Could this be the beginning of fairly quick intensification?
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
The squadron will fly towards Raymond on Tuesday afternoon.
PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....PSBL MISSION FOR 22/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 102.0W
PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....PSBL MISSION FOR 22/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 102.0W
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
cycloneye wrote:The squadron will fly towards Raymond on Tuesday afternoon.
PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....PSBL MISSION FOR 22/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 102.0W
Impressive they're doing it for an EPAC storm. Let's see what goodies they find in it.
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