EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

What I see is Raymond has developed a Central Cold Cover Pattern that temporary impedes significant intensification which is typical of early stage TCs

[stormkite]

looks 60 knots vmax atm and building that's what i see.



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

50kt

...RAYMOND CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 25
Location: 13.7°N 109.1°W
Moving: WSW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

Nice looking TS

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

INFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT
DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT
ADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

DESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND
RAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. BY DAY FOUR OR
FIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.

RAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS
MOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS. AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE
FACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

[euro6208]

looking very healthy...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite the nice appearance, an ASCAT pass from 12:37pm EDT/9pm PDT today revealed an elongated circulation with winds that supported an intensity of 40 mph. Of course, it's always possible the strongest winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant, outside of this pass...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND 55 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 50 KT...BUT DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THIS
MIGHT BE GENEROUS. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS STILL PREDICTED. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE SOME SCATTER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS
THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT 240/7. RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND
MOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION SINCE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OF RAYMOND COULD BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF 18-20N LATITUDE.
THAT IS THE SCENARIO WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 13.4N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 13.4N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.1N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 16.2N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[hurricanes1234]

Raymond is acting strangely. Strengthening, then weakening again and again.

[Yellow Evan]

Despite the nice appearance, an ASCAT pass from 12:37pm EDT/9pm PDT today revealed an elongated circulation with winds that supported an intensity of 40 mph. Of course, it's always possible the strongest winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant, outside of this pass...

I disagree, I think ASCAT is wrong. We've seen this several items these season, mostly notable with Unala.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite the nice appearance, an ASCAT pass from 12:37pm EDT/9pm PDT today revealed an elongated circulation with winds that supported an intensity of 40 mph. Of course, it's always possible the strongest winds are occurring in the southeastern quadrant, outside of this pass...

I disagree, I think ASCAT is wrong. We've seen this several items these season, mostly notable with Unala.

Wind measurements are conducted by satellite. Saying ASCAT is wrong is like saying the most recent visible image is wrong. I would understand that it might be inaccurate if Raymond was a small tropical storm and the maximum sustained winds were occurring in a very small area, but this is not the case.

[hurricanes1234]

Is Raymond struggling with a poor thermodynamic environment like Narda?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convection is looking increasingly meager and you can really see the elongation of the circulation now. Don't see any indications of shear or dry air...

[hurricanes1234]

Don't know what's going on here, but it definitely doesn't resemble strengthening in my opinion. Maybe 2013 is filling in its lameness for the rest of Raymond's life - causing storms to stop intensifying for no apparent reason. Had it not been for the MJO and Kelvin-wave, Raymond would have probably been a pathetic storm like all the others without it.

[hurricanes1234]

I doubt this will strengthen into a hurricane. Best Track is AGAIN down to a meager 45 knots. What is really causing this? Is it the fact that we're in 2013? Chances of this intensifying are probably down to about 40% in my opinion.


EP, 17, 2013102600, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1102W, 45, 1000, TS,

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt this will strengthen into a hurricane. Best Track is AGAIN down to a meager 45 knots. What is really causing this? Is it the fact that we're in 2013? Chances of this intensifying are probably down to about 40% in my opinion.


EP, 17, 2013102600, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1102W, 45, 1000, TS,

Storms south of 15N and with some SW shear can sometimes weaken unexpectedly. Remember, this a very late season storm.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...
WITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN TIP. A WELL-ESTABLISHED
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALSO PREVAILS OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A
BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
245/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N
120W SHIFTS EASTWARD. WHEN RAYMOND REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SAME
RIDGE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN A NORTHWARD TURN
ARE EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
APPROACH OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO BY 96 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART.
AFTER THAT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.

THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY HAS BEEN BAFFLING...ESPECIALLY
SINCE RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING
RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST. WITH SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SHOWING GENERALLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RAYMOND IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO SEPARATE BY 96 HOURS. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING TREND IN 72 TO 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 12.9N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 12.9N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 14.1N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 16.5N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[hurricanes1234]

I still don't see hurricane strength just yet, but I could be wrong. However, the air is very dry and moisture-starved, and we already saw a similar situation with Narda where it never strengthened beyond 65 mph, due to dry air and an overall poor environment. And in addition to this, even though the SHIPS is forecasting an improvement, the SHIPS is usually aggressive on intensity.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Advisory still at 45 knots.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THE DEEP CONVECTION OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CONSISTS OF A LARGE
CURVED BAND WITH INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF A
DEVELOPING INNER CORE. OF COURSE...THAT IS WHAT THE INTERPRETATION
OF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS YESTERDAY AS WELL...AND YET THE STORM
HAS NOT INTENSIFIED. THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY VALUES REMAIN AT 3.5 AND 3.0...OR 55 AND 45 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT IS AT 43 KT AND CIMSS AMSU IS AT
50 KT. A BLEND OF THESE GIVES THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THE
0926Z AMSU PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT OUTWARD OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII FROM THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSES.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD AS A ROBUST MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO TURN
RAYMOND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE MODELS FASTEST WITH RECURVATURE...
SUCH AS THE ECMWF...HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING RAYMOND. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WHEN RAYMOND IS LIKELY
TO BE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER EASTWARD IN THE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH 28C
WATER...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE ONLY IDENTIFIABLE FACTOR SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
THE WARM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY WITH RAYMOND PEAKING AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
INTENSITY. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABRUPTLY
INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LESS CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD
LEAD TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING DECOUPLED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ADVECTING OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND DAY FOUR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWFI...DSHP...AND GFSI MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.7N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 14.4N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 15.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[hurricanes1234]

To me, it's pretty obvious this storm is just wasting time over favourable conditions, which usually don't last long in 2013. How much longer could it possibly stay at 50 mph? Even the NHC discussion shows a bit of frustration. This definitely isn't the Raymond we saw a few days ago. I am even more doubtful of this becoming a hurricane, or even strengthening by a few knots, since it is playing around with forecasts.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.