EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#421 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 3:47 pm

Now a Category 2!!! :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :shocked!: :ggreen: :ggreen:


Image


Raymond is unbelievable. Really pretty too. After all, this was a sad TS with 50 mph winds just 24 hours ago!! A 45 knot increase in 24 hours. Raymond deserves the most claps in quite some years. Firstly, it became our first major after rapidly deepening, then it took a while to reintensify, but it still made it. Then, it underwent a second round of rapid deepening, out in the open Pacific waters, where all of us, especially myself, thought it would not become a hurricane again. Truly a beautiful storm! :cry:
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#422 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:45 pm

Numbers rising

CI5.5/102kt

2013OCT27 223000 5.5 961.8 102.0 5.5 5.8 5.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.96 -69.79 EYE

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#423 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:06 pm

Looks to be around 90 knots now. Needs deeper convection around the eye to become a major.
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Re:

#424 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 27, 2013 6:34 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Looks to be around 90 knots now. Needs deeper convection around the eye to become a major.


Reminds me of Henriette IMO.
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Re: Re:

#425 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:02 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Looks to be around 90 knots now. Needs deeper convection around the eye to become a major.


Reminds me of Henriette IMO.


:lol: Likely near major strength right now. Only minor problem is the convection is wrapped halfway around the eye, but I've seen Category 4s that didn't even have a ring wrapping fully around the eye.
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#426 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:08 pm

120kt Hurricane Julia

Image


As you can see the main job for Raymond is still to get the eye clear out

Image
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#427 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:16 pm

Up to 90 knots. :eek:


EP, 17, 2013102800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1166W, 90, 972, HU
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#428 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:07 pm

Looks like it's peaking, as convection is slowly becoming less symmetric.
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#429 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 27, 2013 9:34 pm

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT RAYMOND UNDERWENT DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROBABLY ENDED. THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A NEARLY
CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CLOUD-OBSCURED EYE. HOWEVER A
SHARP EDGE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
IS SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DVORAK
T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC WAS 5.0...AND ADT VALUES HAVE
RECENTLY LEVELED OFF AROUND THAT VALUE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.

RAYMOND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAIRLY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FORWARD MOTION COULD SLOW
TO A CRAWL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LOW. THE ONLY
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
RIGHT...TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS...ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE PERSISTENCE AND
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF
THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A VERY QUICK
DEMISE AFTER THAT TIME...WITH RAYMOND LIKELY DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR PERHAPS SOONER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.3N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.1N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 17.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 18.3N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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#430 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 27, 2013 11:03 pm

hurricanes1234 Raymond is unbelievable. Really pretty too. After all, this was a sad TS with 50 mph winds just 24 hours ago!! A 45 knot increase in 24 hours. Raymond deserves the most claps in quite some years. Firstly, it became our first major after rapidly deepening, then it took a while to reintensify, but it still made it. Then, it underwent a second round of rapid deepening, out in the open Pacific waters, where all of us, especially myself, thought it would not become a hurricane again. Truly a beautiful storm! :cry:



look over the posts not (everybody) thought it would not become a hurricane again.
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#431 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:13 am

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

THE EYE OF RAYMOND IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...
HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS STILL PRESENT IN A
CDO FEATURE...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME
DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT.
UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE ABOUT 20
KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAYMOND...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR...
COOLER SSTS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...AND SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND DECOUPLING FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. RAYMOND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3
...AND DISSIPATE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

THE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE
EYE DISAPPEARED...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. RAYMOND SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...AS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND
THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...ASSUMING THAT RAYMOND WILL BE A
SHALLOW SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON
DATA FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES OVER RAYMOND AT 0444Z AND
0538Z...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.0N 116.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.7N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 18.2N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 18.6N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane

#432 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:38 am

Down to 100 mph, but still a beautiful hurricane. It might be our last hurricane, though. :cry: :cry:
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#433 Postby zeehag » Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:31 am

ogods i hate it when you cheer so heartily ..lets hope ray baby stays away from me...

storm is gorgeous, yes... i hope it dissipates before too much longer.... as long as it doesnt touch land it is beeeyoooteefullllll
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#434 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 28, 2013 3:42 pm

Down to Tropical Storm.


TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAYMOND IS STILL PRODUCING A SIZEABLE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
PLUMMETING...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORTS DOWNGRADING RAYMOND TO A
60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND
RAYMOND SHOULD CONTINUE A RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TREND FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. COUPLED WITH COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...THE
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND
TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A
RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO KEEP
PACE WITH THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS ICON...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS...IN
PARTICULAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...SHOW EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN
INDICATED BELOW.

RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 005/6 KT...AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
LOCATED NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST. ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SHEARED AWAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE 12Z CYCLES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH
FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MOVING FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT AS
FAR NORTH AS SHOWN BY THESE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.8N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 17.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.6N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 19.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 20.1N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#435 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:23 pm

The low-level center has become exposed to view as the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is whisked northeast.

Raymond was a fun one to track, but its day are now severely numbered. :(

The system has managed to accumulate 16.4225 units of ACE, a storm-total higher than any other so far this hurricane season.
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Re:

#436 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:05 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The low-level center has become exposed to view as the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is whisked northeast.

Raymond was a fun one to track, but its day are now severely numbered. :(

The system has managed to accumulate 16.4225 units of ACE, a storm-total higher than any other so far this hurricane season.



Amazing storm for this year. From the time that the air in the EPAC moistened up from being previously desert-like in September, I just knew we would see our strongest storm or a significant hurricane then. And guess what, it was Hurricane Raymond in late October! EPAC is one stunning basin. And another example of how amazing it is - Kenneth 2011, the Category 4 that attained that status less than 2 weeks before the official end of the season.
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#437 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 28, 2013 9:42 pm

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAYMOND IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW IN A RAGGED BAND ABOUT
50-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5. RAYMOND IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART...
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP RAYMOND
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES RAYMOND INTO INCREASING SHEAR...OVER COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INTO DRIER AIR. THE CYCLONE IS THUS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 19.6N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#438 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:41 am

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

DESPITE RECENTLY PRODUCING A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...
RAYMOND IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG JET STREAK...AND ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE THEREFORE LOWERED TO
45 KT. THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN...
BUT STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS
RAYMOND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BENEATH THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 005/5 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD ONLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE REMNANT LOW IS
THEN LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.3N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 19.6N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1200Z 20.0N 115.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#439 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 12:42 pm

I'm surprised at how deep the convection associated with the storm is, despite 30 knots of wind shear. Raymond is truly a fighter!
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

#440 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 29, 2013 3:48 pm

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND
STRETCHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA AND IS CORROBORATED BY A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT. THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY HAVE LET UP JUST A LITTLE
BIT TODAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING RAYMOND TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EARNEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE HARDER AND HARDER FOR
RAYMOND TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHILE IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND TOWARD DRIER AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
RAYMOND ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS INDICATED BY DAY
3...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER COULD LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...OR 020/5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED BY
THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD OR
MEANDER WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.5N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 19.9N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 20.3N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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