WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

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WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 2:31 pm

Image

11N 169E
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Oct 20, 2013 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:45 pm

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 169.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 153 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS (LLCCS), SOME OF WHICH ARE FULLY EXPOSED. THE BEST TRACK
POSITION IS BASED ON A CENTROID POINT AMONG THE LLCCS. THE
VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, BUT
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:25 pm

Our next storms might come out from 94W and 95W. Invests in WPAC rarely fail. The question is which one will become stronger.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#4 Postby supercane » Fri Oct 18, 2013 10:53 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 190000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 32N 132E 35N 140E 36N 151E 30N 150E 30N 140E 30N 131E 32N
132E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 60N 164E 60N 180E 50N 180E 52N 167E 60N 164E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 19N 152E NW SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 164E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 42N 147E EAST 10 KT.
REMARKS.
TYPHOON 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) 920 HPA AT 16.2N 140.4E : SEE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 11:24 pm

GFS is very excited with this one forecasting Typhoon Lekima skirting the northern marianas...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 1:49 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
169.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE LLCCS, SOME OF WHICH ARE FULLY EXPOSED. THE
BEST TRACK POSITION IS BASED ON A CENTROID POINT AMONG THE LLCCS.
THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, BUT
STILL REMAINS FAIRLY ELONGATED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) VWS; HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 19, 2013 11:46 am

Image

good outflow...


Image


20131019 1501 10.1 -163.3 T1.0/1.0 95W 95W
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#8 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Oct 19, 2013 3:55 pm

Gale Warning

forecast to become a tropical storm within 24 hours

** WTPQ21 RJTD 191800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 09.4N 162.5E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 10.0N 159.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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#9 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 19, 2013 4:14 pm

95W is really far east. Its there any record for this?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 19, 2013 10:18 pm

TCFA

Image

WTPN22 PGTW 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 164.8E TO 14.0N 160.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 192032Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 163.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 163.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF
UJELANG. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
ALBEIT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 191931Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC AND THE FRAGMENTED NATURE OF THE
BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202200Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 1:10 am

025
WWPQ80 PGUM 200155 CCA
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1155 AM CHST SUN OCT 20 2013

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME

PMZ173-174-181-201900-
POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-
1155 AM CHST SUN OCT 20 2013

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NEAR ENEWETAK ATOLL...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N163E...WHICH IS ABOUT

115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
155 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF UJAE
170 MILES EAST OF UJELANG
310 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN AND
425 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH MONDAY. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 24 HOURS.

DEEP CONVECTION FLARING UP NEAR THE CENTER WILL EFFECT ENEWETAK AND
UJELANG ATOLLS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALLS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. CONVERGING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS FEEDING THE DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE
AND KOSRAE AS WELL.

FOR ENEWETAK AND UJELANG ATOLLS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT.

SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR SMALL BOATS AND INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF ALONG SOUTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES WILL RISE AND COULD REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON
MONDAY.

FOR UJAE ATOLL IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND PAKIN...POHNPEI...MOKIL
IN POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE...

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET TODAY
WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET TONIGHT.

RESIDENTS OF ALL THE ABOVE ISLANDS AND ATOLLS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION AND INSTRUCTIONS AVAILABLE FROM THEIR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE AND RADIO
STATIONS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

CHAN
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Re: WPAC: 28W - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:03 am

Image

Another Monster Brewing...

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/192151ZOCT2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 160.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 160.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 11.3N 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.7N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.4N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.1N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.7N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 160.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943
NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
211500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PGTW
192200). REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
943 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW LEVEL NOTCH
FEATURE ON A 201006Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS JUST TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG ITS
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER, VIGOROUS EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HELPING
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
OUTERMOST PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) WELL TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TD 28W.
HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO THE PERENNIALLY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA, WILL ENSURE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE TD WILL REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY AT 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 28W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TRACK
ON A MORE NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE ADDITION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU
96, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT - UNUSUAL AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT - WITH SOME
VARIANCE AT THE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR TAU 72. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM, THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS TENTATIVELY LOW. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 28W - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:07 am

496
WTPQ32 PGUM 201506
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013
100 AM CHST MON OCT 21 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W FORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...10.6N 160.4E

ABOUT 295 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 520 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN AND
ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 160.4
EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 13 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 28W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THIS NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

WILLIAMS
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Re: WPAC: 28W - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 12:07 pm

Image

developing rapidly...
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Re: WPAC: 28W - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 1:40 pm

euro6208 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95W/imagery/avn-animated.gif

developing rapidly...


Like all but about 2 WPAC systems starting with Usagi. :lol: :eek:
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Re: WPAC: 28W - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 2:30 pm

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1328 LEKIMA (1328) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 10.6N 161.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Oct 20, 2013 3:20 pm

24 HRS
12.5N 158.3E
45 knots
Marshall Island

48 HRS
15.5N 153.7E
55 knots
Minami torishima waters

72 HRS
17.6N 149.1E
65 knots
Marianas Island
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#18 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 3:44 pm

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is about 30kt too low right now (can we decommission them?). This is a strong tropical storm nearing typhoon status.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 20, 2013 4:00 pm

Image
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#20 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 20, 2013 5:32 pm

have to disagre with JT calling this a TD still
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