WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#101 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:55 pm

222
WWMY80 PGUM 232142
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
742 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

GUZ003-004-005-PMZ153-154-241000-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN ISLANDS-TINIAN WATERS-SAIPAN WATERS-
742 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

...SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA PRODUCING HIGH SEAS IN THE CNMI...

AT 700 AM THIS MORNING...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR 20.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 148.2 DEGREES EAST
LONGITUDE...ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN AND 395 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. LEKIMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH.

THE SAIPAN BUOY AT TANAPAG IS REPORTING SEAS OF 7.5 TO 8.5 FEET THIS
MORNING...BUT SEAS ARE HIGHER NORTH OF SAIPAN AND MAY RISE A LITTLE
MORE THIS MORNING AS LEKIMA PASSES CLOSEST APPROACH TO PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN. WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL DATA INDICATES SEAS OF 13 FEET REACHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS ANATAHAN. SEAS NEAR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT 13 TO 16 FEET THIS MORNING...THEN
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BUT COULD
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS FROM PAGAN
NORTHWARD TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LEKIMA AND ITS APPROACH TO THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS OF THE CNMI...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPQ32 PGUM.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL SEAS HAVE
SETTLED BACK DOWN. TAKE ANY NECESSARY ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY
NEAR THE SHORE...SUCH AS CROPS...AS HAZARDOUS SURF MAY ALSO PRODUCE
1 TO 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING REEFS.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



424
WTPQ32 PGUM 232115
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA (28W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013
800 AM CHST THU OCT 24 2013

...POWERFUL SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA REMAINS AT PEAK INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 148.2E

ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 235 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 525 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 EAST.

LEKIMA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE LEKIMA TO A CLOSEST APPROACH OF
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGAN AND 160 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN AROUND 1100 AM CHST THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 160 MPH. LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SHOULD
WEAKEN TO BELOW SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 145 MILES...BUT ONLY OUT TO 125
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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#102 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:57 pm

Fairly small storm so the pressure is likely fairly high for the intensity - higher than Francisco was. I'm guessing about 920mb.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:03 pm

Category 5...

WDPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAS MAINTAINED AROUND A SHARPLY DEFINED 20 NM EYE. HOWEVER,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT THINNING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
UPON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON STEADY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF THE SAME VALUE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY
28W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU
24, A PRESSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BEGIN
TO MODIFY THE STR. THIS WILL CAUSE STY 28W TO INITIALLY TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN A GENERAL RECURVE
SCENARIO. DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND INCREASING VWS WILL START
A SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 28W WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). FURTHER DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AND
THEN COMPLETE BY TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE
WELL UNDERSTOOD STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#104 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:12 pm

Image

incredible...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#105 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 6:58 pm

EXTREME annularity.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#106 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 23, 2013 7:56 pm

Beautiful!
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#107 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 8:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#108 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:11 pm

This has to be my favorite TC this year...and IMO the strongest tropical cyclone so far, stronger than Phailin, Usagi and Francisco. I was really impressed how it's done an eyewall replacement within a very short time frame. It's new and larger eye looks stunning. I don't know why JTWC didn't even mention it on their latest prognostics. And I agree they should have raised the intensity above 140kts after the swift EWRC.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#109 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:35 pm

The eye is absolutely huge.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#110 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:50 pm

Image


BEAUTIFUL AND PERFECT LITTLE TYPHOON!
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#111 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:11 pm

I wonder how long will Lekima sustain its Super Typhoon status. It's compact and very powerful (and as hurricanes1234 said) IT'S BEAUTIFUL AND PERFECT LITTLE TYPHOON!
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#112 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:38 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Image


BEAUTIFUL AND PERFECT LITTLE TYPHOON!

Actually, now, the problem is that Lekima's convection is getting thinner. But still, good structure and warm eye!
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#113 Postby Fyzn94 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:04 am

Image

PERFECTION
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#114 Postby weathernerdguy » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:30 am

this is expected to be a cat 3 in 26 C.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#115 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:51 am

slowly becoming annular...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#116 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 10:53 am

Super Typhoon Lekima 130 knots Category 4...

WDPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A SHARPLY-DEFINED 25 NM EYE
SURROUNDED BY A THICK EYEWALL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
LOSE SYMMETRY WITH ELONGATION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. THIS
INDICATES THAT 28W IS NOW APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND SUBSEQUENTLY, STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS BEGUN
TO WEAKEN THE STR. IN EFFECT, STY LEKIMA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
GETS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM.
AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSFORMATION
INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. NUMERIC MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT. IN VIEW OF THIS AND THE WELL-DEFINED STEERING MECHANISM,
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS STRATEGY IS USED
TO OFFSET KNOWN CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK TENDENCIES. //
NNNN
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#117 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:29 am

Lekima is about as classc and textbook in appearance as a hurricane can get. I am totally in awe looking at its presentation on satellite.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#118 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 3:07 pm

Now THAT'S a hurricane (typhoon), or as we used to say at the NHEML, none of that Namby-Pamby stuff that we usually see on this side (lol)...

P.S. I'm sure the AF is glad they aren't flying that one - that very intense ring of convection around the eye would be pretty hazardous to fly through, I'm sure...

Frank
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#119 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Oct 24, 2013 4:44 pm

PERFECT! A DELICIOUS DOUGHNUT MADE OF CONDENSED WATER! FEEL FREE TO ENGAGE IN SOME SWEET DELIGHT!

Image
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#120 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Oct 24, 2013 8:47 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:PERFECT! A DELICIOUS DOUGHNUT MADE OF CONDENSED WATER! FEEL FREE TO ENGAGE IN SOME SWEET DELIGHT!

Image

Undergoing another Eyewall Replacement Cycle. May become another annular storm.
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