WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

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#41 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:15 pm

Another WPac system going bonkers.

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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#42 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:41 pm

up to 75 knots but on the low side...

WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 827 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SATELLITE FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS VIGOROUS POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HELPING
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TY 28W.
HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO THE PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA WILL ENSURE STEADY INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS LEKIMA WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 96, TY 28W
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
120. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 48, BUT INCREASINGLY DIVERGE AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR. DUE TO THE TIGHTER AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERIC MODELS, THERE IS A
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, WHICH INDICATES UNCERTAINTY
DURING RECURVATURE, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#43 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:47 pm

the eye has cleared out beautifully...

based on data and the continued rapid intensification, intensity is likely at 100 knots...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#44 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:50 pm

2013OCT22 025700 5.6 951.1 104.6 5.6 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -34.81 -77.41 EYE -99 IR 60.2 15.74 -157.45 SPRL MTSAT1 27.3

Current Estimate
Raw

WOW!
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#45 Postby Fyzn94 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:24 am

Uhh....fire in the hole???

Image
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#46 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:41 am

CATEGORY 5 IS FORECAST.

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.1N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.7N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.4N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 35.6N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 41.8N 163.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 156.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 706 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#47 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:36 am

Wow:

2013OCT22 093000 6.5 916.2 +2.2 127.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 9.35 -81.36 EYE 15 IR 66.4 16.92 -155.84 COMBO MTSAT1 26.9
2013OCT22 095700 6.7 909.8 +2.2 132.2 6.7 7.3 7.6 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 9.81 -81.45 EYE 14 IR 66.4 17.00 -155.73 COMBO MTSAT1 26.9
2013OCT22 105700 6.9 903.4 +2.2 137.4 6.9 7.2 7.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 8.52 -81.60 EYE 13 IR 66.4 17.07 -155.48 COMBO MTSAT1 26.7

Image

Raw T Numbers coming in well above cat 5 threshold.
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#48 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:48 am

Let's see if JTWC decides to upgrade it to Cat 5 in time this time. :)
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#49 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:31 am

Latest from JMA:

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1328 LEKIMA (1328)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 17.1N 155.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT

50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 20.1N 150.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT

48HF 241200UTC 22.9N 146.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 251200UTC 28.2N 145.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#50 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:45 am

2013OCT22 125700 7.3 910.0 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -7.65 -82.00 EYE 12 IR 63.2 17.38 -155.08 COMBO MTSAT1 26.7

Current
Raw

:crazyeyes: Holy...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#51 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:55 am

Image

Image

Image

the structure and convection is so symmetric around the well defined eye...
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#52 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:10 am

First storm to have this much cold medium gray surrounding the eye.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#53 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:07 am

up to 125 knots...although this is very conservative...

WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS TY 28W HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS
CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DEEPENED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED 15 NM EYE. A
220914Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND CONTINUALLY IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE INCREASING STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD THAT RANGE FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY LEKIMA IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU
48, A PRESSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BEGIN
TO MODIFY THE STR. THIS WILL CAUSE TY 28W TO INITIALLY TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST IN A GENERAL RECURVE SCENARIO.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW VWS WILL ALLOW TY 28W TO REACH A PEAK OF 140
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER WHICH, DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND
INCREASING VWS WILL START TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 28W WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). FURTHER DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
120 WHILE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT
INCREASINGLY DIVERGES AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE STR. DUE
TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERIC MODELS, THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE POINT, LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#54 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:10 am

2013OCT22 135700 7.4 906.9 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 2.66 -81.58 EYE 15 IR 63.2 17.51 -154.79 COMBO MTSAT1 26.6

Current
Raw

numbers going up!
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#55 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:28 am

up to 100 knots per JMA
TY 1328 (LEKIMA)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 22 October 2013

<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°05'(17.1°)
E155°25'(155.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E152°35'(152.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°05'(20.1°)
E150°00'(150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E146°10'(146.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10'(28.2°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)
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#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:36 am

22/1430 UTC 17.6N 154.6E T7.0/7.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:36 am

Based on all the data, I would have the intensity at least at 145 kt.
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#58 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:45 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 918.8mb/140.0kt

Cat 5 anyone? With 140 knot winds I would like to think so.
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#59 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:08 pm

Can't remember if any of the previous storms hit T7.5, but this looks really close to that.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#60 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:16 pm

Image

cloud tops have warmed a little bit BUT the eye has become better defined, outflow improving and structure increasing in coverage...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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