WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re:

#61 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:18 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 918.8mb/140.0kt

Cat 5 anyone? With 140 knot winds I would like to think so.


this is a category 5 already no doubt if it weren't for constraints...


but judging from satellite and data, intensity looks to be about 150 to 155 knots...

too bad no recon...all we have is this silly dvorak thing... :roll:
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#62 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:26 pm

Image

outflow from lekima should start to affect the northern marianas soon...

334
WTPQ32 PGUM 221535
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON LEKIMA (28W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP282013
200 AM CHST WED OCT 23 2013

...LEKIMA NEAR SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 154.7E

ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 615 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 625 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 675 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON LEKIMA WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.7 EAST.

LEKIMA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH. LEKIMA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BECOME A SUPER
TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 30
MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP
TO 125 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#63 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:37 pm

ADT now a solid 7.5 = 155 knots...
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Re: Re:

#64 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:07 pm

euro6208 wrote:
too bad no recon...all we have is this silly dvorak thing... :roll:


Don't rip on the Dvorak Technique. Its an amazing piece of science and research by Vernon Dvorak.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#65 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:08 pm

T7.0 from JMA, forecast to strengthen to 115 knots within 24 hours

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1328 LEKIMA (1328)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 18.0N 154.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT

50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 20.5N 149.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 241800UTC 24.4N 145.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 251800UTC 31.5N 146.3E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 16KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#66 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:12 pm

This is already a Category 5 super typhoon per the JTWC!!! :eek:
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#67 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:21 pm

22/2030 UTC 18.4N 153.1E T7.0/7.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific
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Re:

#68 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:22/2030 UTC 18.4N 153.1E T7.0/7.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific



T-number went down from 7.5? Has it weakened slightly?
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:27 pm

Spectacular little typhoon. I wonder if its winds will go up, let's see who can beat 160 mph! Really an amazing WPAC season. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image
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Re: Re:

#70 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:05 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:22/2030 UTC 18.4N 153.1E T7.0/7.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific



T-number went down from 7.5? Has it weakened slightly?

SAB hasn't hit T7.5 yet. It's very hard to get above T7.0.

Image
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#71 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:14 pm

It hit a DT of 7.5 for a few hours, but that wasn't the number they used. Since then, convection has weakened a bit.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#72 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:37 pm

Good Morning ....

Awe...I see, we now have a category 5 Super Typhoon...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#73 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:39 pm

I think it may have peaked. Convection is weaker than earlier.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:56 pm

00z Best Track remains at 140kts.

28W LEKIMA 131023 0000 18.6N 152.2E WPAC 140 918
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#75 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:19 pm

JMA now has it at 115kt with 905hPa pressure... this has to be the strongest/most intense since Megi from JMA, right?? :?:
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#76 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:38 pm

Image

talk about an explosive intensification...
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Re:

#77 Postby Fyzn94 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:38 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:JMA now has it at 115kt with 905hPa pressure... this has to be the strongest/most intense since Megi from JMA, right?? :?:

I dunno....last year, Sanba had a 900hPa recorded pressure, but I'm not sure whether or not that was the JMA's observation. And these are only satellite observations, right?
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#78 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:42 pm

2013OCT22 155700 7.5 903.6 155.0
2013OCT22 163000 7.5 903.6 155.0
2013OCT22 171300 7.5 903.6 155.0
2013OCT22 173000 7.5 903.6 155.0
2013OCT22 183000 7.5 902.5 155.0
2013OCT22 185700 7.5 902.5 155.0
2013OCT22 193000 7.5 902.5 155.0
2013OCT22 195700 7.5 902.5 155.0
2013OCT22 203000 7.5 902.4 155.0
2013OCT22 205700 7.5 902.5 155.0
2013OCT22 213000 7.5 902.4 155.0
2013OCT22 215700 7.5 902.4 155.0
2013OCT22 223000 7.5 902.4 155.0

solid 7.5 at peak...
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#79 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:51 pm

LEKIMA went down by..
-25 hPa / 06 hours
-45 hPa / 12 hours
-70 hPa / 24 hours
-93 hPa / 48 hours

One of the most rapid intensifications ever.

Source: http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typho ... 28.html.en
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Re:

#80 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:52 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:JMA now has it at 115kt with 905hPa pressure... this has to be the strongest/most intense since Megi from JMA, right?? :?:

Strongest since Sanba last year, which was 900 hPa. Lekima has the same pressure with Jelawat at 905 hPa.
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