WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#81 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:04 pm

Based on all data, I would place the peak intensity at a whopping 155 knots...
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Re: Re:

#82 Postby ManilaTC » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:57 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:JMA now has it at 115kt with 905hPa pressure... this has to be the strongest/most intense since Megi from JMA, right?? :?:

Strongest since Sanba last year, which was 900 hPa. Lekima has the same pressure with Jelawat at 905 hPa.


Megi still undefeated at 895 hPa. and we had DOTStar then.
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Re: Re:

#83 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:53 pm

ClarkEligue wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
phwxenthusiast wrote:JMA now has it at 115kt with 905hPa pressure... this has to be the strongest/most intense since Megi from JMA, right?? :?:

Strongest since Sanba last year, which was 900 hPa. Lekima has the same pressure with Jelawat at 905 hPa.


Megi still undefeated at 895 hPa. and we had DOTStar then.


Megi was quite a spectacular typhoon in that recon found the highest 1 min sustained wind speed in a TC worldwide at 175 knots...stunning...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#84 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:56 pm

Category 5 Super Typhoon...

WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS STY 28W HAS BEEN QUICKLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 140 BASED ON STEADY DVORAKS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW SUPPORT
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST AND IS CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE (29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, A PRESSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND BEGIN
TO MODIFY THE STR. THIS WILL CAUSE TY 28W TO INITIALLY TRACK TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST IN A GENERAL RECURVE SCENARIO.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF GOOD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS, AND LOW
VWS WILL ALLOW STY 28W TO MAINTAIN SUPPER TYPHOON STRENGTH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER WHICH, DECREASING OCEAN PARAMETERS AND
INCREASING VWS WILL START TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 28W WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). FURTHER DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT
QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
96 WHILE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96.
DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERIC MODELS, THERE IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. IN LATER TAUS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS THIS IMPROVEMENT IS FAIRLY RECENT.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:59 pm

Image

amazing...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#86 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:05 pm

Lekima producing torrential seas in the cnmi...14 feet...in some areas and forecast to get even higher...
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#87 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:34 am

Super small super typhoon. :D
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#88 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:35 am

Lekima has done something interesting tonight. Looks like it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle without any of us noticing...right now it is clearing out the new eye. A larger eye is becoming more apparent, not to mention very cold cloud tops surrounding the eyewall. It seems an increase in intensity is likely when the cloud-filled eye clears out completely.
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#89 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:14 pm

ADT numbers are on the rise again:

2013OCT23 155700 7.3 908.4 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 14.51 -78.38 EYE 24 IR 68.9 19.65 -148.96 COMBO MTSAT1 25.2
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#90 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:27 pm

Its back to a T7.0, but it is very very close to being a T7.5.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#91 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:44 pm

That's the most perfect and swiftly EWRC I've seen in a while

Right now Lekima looks even stronger than it has been
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#92 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:11 pm

Should be absolutely amazing on visible satellite right now, still a few hours till daylight come

Image
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#93 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 1:55 pm

Is it just me or are the intensity estimations by the JTWC exactly the same for all category 5 cyclones this year?
From what I can remember, Usagi, Francisco and Phailin were at 140 knots / 918 millibars and now Lekima joined them.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#94 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:11 pm

Once again JTWC doesn't pass from 140kts at 18z Best Track.

28W LEKIMA 131023 1800 19.9N 148.7E WPAC 140 918
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#95 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Once again JTWC doesn't pass from 140kts at 18z Best Track.

28W LEKIMA 131023 1800 19.9N 148.7E WPAC 140 918


Underestimate. Lekima is atleast has 150-155 knot winds now.
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#96 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:47 pm

Yeah looks more like 150 kt at least, perhaps 155 kt.
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Re: WPAC: LEKIMA - Typhoon

#97 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:49 pm

JTWC is always unreasonably conservative at operational advisory but often does changes in post-assessment

Typhoon Bopha of last year was upgraded to 150kt in the best track which is 10kt higher than previous estimate, it may happen to some storms this year also
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Re:

#98 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:35 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Is it just me or are the intensity estimations by the JTWC exactly the same for all category 5 cyclones this year?
From what I can remember, Usagi, Francisco and Phailin were at 140 knots / 918 millibars and now Lekima joined them.



I've been noticing this also. But I don't know why. Same winds and pressure, but Usagi went down to 910 mbar.
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#99 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:39 pm

I'm sure the pressure estimate comes mostly from Dvorak analysis. A T7.0 will produce a similar estimate just due to the fact that they have no other source to go on.
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Re: Re:

#100 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:53 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:Is it just me or are the intensity estimations by the JTWC exactly the same for all category 5 cyclones this year?
From what I can remember, Usagi, Francisco and Phailin were at 140 knots / 918 millibars and now Lekima joined them.



I've been noticing this also. But I don't know why. Same winds and pressure, but Usagi went down to 910 mbar.


RL3AO wrote:I'm sure the pressure estimate comes mostly from Dvorak analysis. A T7.0 will produce a similar estimate just due to the fact that they have no other source to go on.


+1000000
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