ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical

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supercane4867
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ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:00 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310210355
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#2 Postby Macrocane » Sun Oct 20, 2013 11:01 pm

You beat me to it :D

I don't think it's gonna do much though.
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#3 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:00 am

40%.

1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:37 am

This might be a tropical cyclone already.


Image
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#5 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:06 am

So excited to say hi to Lorenzo!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 6:39 am

60%/60%


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#7 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:27 am

OSCAT & ASCAT indicate LLC with winds up to 35 kts un-flagged. The OSCAT image was about 3 hrs after the ASCAT pass. Don't know why this isn't classified as of now. What else is required?

Image

Image
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:20 am

Yeah I agree WxMan, not sure why this hasn't been upgraded.

This system kindaof came out of nowhere considering the NHC was not expecting any development just a couple of days ago reading their outlooks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:26 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902013_al132013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310211320
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:31 am

Hello TD 13!

AL, 13, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 277N, 554W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#11 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:36 am

OSCAT winds were at TS strength last evening. Should be a TS not a TD.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#12 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:34 am

Ok, I take my words back, it looks very nice, I agree that should be a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 60% / 60%

#13 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:40 am

Macrocane wrote:Ok, I take my words back, it looks very nice, I agree that should be a TS.



But it is a TD according to 11 AM advisory! :lol:
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:41 am

The discussion mentioned Dvorak estimate of 2.0, but not satellite winds to TS strength last evening. I'd trust satellite wind estimates over a Dvorak rating.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:53 am

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RainbowAppleJackDash

#16 Postby RainbowAppleJackDash » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:23 am

Please don't be named.....
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:25 am

Latest image. Not too bad.

Image

RainbowAppleJackDash wrote:Please don't be named.....


:lol:
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:25 am

Surprise system. Was 10% yesterday afternoon.

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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:26 am

Rare that the Atlantic with an active system is taking a back seat...the EPAC with Raymond and WPAC with Francisco have the headlines.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby RainbowAppleJackDash » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:28 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Latest image. Not too bad.

Image

RainbowAppleJackDash wrote:Please don't be named.....


:lol:

NOT TOO BAD?! O_O But for me, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane naming list is SUPER COOL! Just WHY?!?! O_O!!!
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