ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby HurrMark » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:29 am

If this doesn't "surprise" us by rapidly intensifying and it does become Lorenzo, it is quite possible that the average ACE might sink below 2.3 for the year. For reference, that is roughly 12 hours of Raymond at its current state for an average storm.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:59 am

HurrMark wrote:If this doesn't "surprise" us by rapidly intensifying and it does become Lorenzo, it is quite possible that the average ACE might sink below 2.3 for the year. For reference, that is roughly 12 hours of Raymond at its current state for an average storm.


EPAC almost always has better ACE competitors than the Atlantic. Example: Raymond, its ACE in the end would probably be the cumulative ACE for more than half of the Atlantic season this year, including both hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:16 am

It's putting on a decent burst of convection at the moment so I expect it will be named this afternoon.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-55&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#24 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:10 pm

Agreed. It will take-up my 3rd and last storm for my how many more storms in 2013 poll prediction.



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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#25 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 1:32 pm

Let's say hello to Lorenzo!

AL, 13, 2013102118, , BEST, 0, 287N, 552W, 35, 1008, TS
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Tropical Depression

#26 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 21, 2013 2:01 pm

I would put the intensity at 40-45 kt right now, we've seen worse looking tropical storms this year.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 4:23 pm

Raymond and Lorenzo

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:31 pm

Tropical Storm Lorenzo


Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 21, 2013 5:47 pm

Looks pretty healthy to me. The LLC seems to be lining up under the convective center a little better now. I think the models may be underestimating this one because I think the shear may be overestimated. The shear tendency ahead of it to the east on CIMSS shows it dropping and the 12Z model runs from this morning really dropped the amount of expected shear ahead of it as well. Combined with good moist mid-levels and high SSTs, this could get a lot stronger I think. If I were back in school and they asked me to estimate this ones chances to become a hurricane I'd rate them pretty high.

Image

Image

CIMSS shear tendency:
Image
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#30 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:22 pm

Pete, convection looks healthy but still seems sheared to me:

Image

Nothing a persistent burst couldn't fix though. You may be right about the underestimation of the intensity
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:28 pm

Stays at 35kts on 00z Best Track.

AL, 13, 2013102200, , BEST, 0, 292N, 542W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 70, 0, 0, 1016, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M
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#32 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:39 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Pete, convection looks healthy but still seems sheared to me:
Nothing a persistent burst couldn't fix though. You may be right about the underestimation of the intensity


Yeah, you are right that it still looks a little sheared. I'm still thinking the shear will drop off though and this will have a couple of days in lower shear. Let's see.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#33 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:39 pm

Yeah, that pass definitely shows the convection is on the NE side of the circulation! Suggesting SW shear of some strength.
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#34 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:11 pm

Lorenzo is actually looking pretty good given the upper level situation, and the convection is staying generally close to the center so far.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:14 pm

Yeah, it's now moving more in the same direction as the mid level winds that are steering it so that is one reason why the overall forecast shear values over most of the storm's area show up pretty low. Note on this GFS forecast for Wednesday evening (2013-10-24 0000 UTC) that the shear is very low over it (lower left panel). Also notice in the upper left panel (steering winds) that the steering winds come from the west-northwest so this could actually start moving east-southeast tomorrow evening or Wednesday. That should keep it south of the stronger shear as well. The negative on this particular forecast is that it shows dry air on the western side by then (lower right panel.)
Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:37 pm

It's so hard to tell at night without microwave 89G or 91G satellite images but this looks pretty sheared right now from the rgb satellite. Still think that will change for the better tomorrow but for now I don't see any reason to change the intensity up or down.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:54 pm

Here's the latest NHC discussion. I don't agree with the shear analysis and think this will go east and then east-southeast but of course we'll know soon enough.

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:01 pm

Sorry guys, but I see no strengthening here. :(


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#39 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:22 pm

Doesn't have much model support for strengthening. It's too far north, it will probably get elongated. The next 24 hours I agree is its best shot. Flow is just too fast up there, IMO we won't likely get a hurricane out of Lorenzo. I do agree it may move a little more east before falling apart.

Image

Likely another quick hitting name waster that will further depart the ACE per storm average
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#40 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:49 am

Hmm.....

Image

Image

Looking much better, and much less sheared.
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