ATL: LORENZO - Post-Tropical

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SouthDadeFish
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#41 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:14 am

Center is no longer exposed on visible imagery:

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:26 am

Microwave imagery indicates an eye is forming. Probably around 55kts now. Could be a hurricane today.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:52 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Sorry guys, but I see no strengthening here. :(


NOT OFFICIAL!


This is in a prime location and the perfect time of year for a sneaky hurricane shooting NE with the upper level flow.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:07 am

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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:27 am

Beautiful outflow in the western semi circle.
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#46 Postby Bizzles » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:33 am

NHC has this only hitting 40 kts? Looks much better today, wonder if they will up that forecast for the next 12-24 hrs.
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#47 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:34 am

Bizzles wrote:NHC has this only hitting 40 kts? Looks much better today, wonder if they will up that forecast for the next 12-24 hrs.


yeah it's probably well beyond that already, it looks like it has to be 50kts at least based on appearance and organization.
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#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:33 am

That looks to be about 55 kt to me.
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#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:35 am

22/1145 UTC 29.6N 52.2W T3.5/3.5 LORENZO -- Atlantic
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#50 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:36 am

NHC really lowballed it in their last advisory at 45 kt (I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact they didn't call for it to intensify much) There's also been a further blowup of convection near the center in the last hour or two.

What is the latest Dvorak on this?
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Re:

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:38 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:NHC really lowballed it in their last advisory at 45 kt (I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact they didn't call for it to intensify much) There's also been a further blowup of convection near the center in the last hour or two.

What is the latest Dvorak on this?


Last one was T3.5. At least blending them out would support 50 kt, although I tend to agree with the 3.5 and would have gone with 55 kt.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:42 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:
What is the latest Dvorak on this?


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2013 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 29:30:21 N Lon : 51:57:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.8


Center Temp : -61.9C Cloud Region Temp : -63.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt13L.html
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#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:08 pm

I would think the intensity will go up...that Raw data might not even be unreasonable.
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#54 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:53 pm

Given the satellite appearance earlier, how possible is it that it either is or was at/near hurricane intensity?
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:38 pm

18z Best Track stays at 45kts.

AL, 13, 2013102218, , BEST, 0, 292N, 516W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:31 pm

Looks like it's getting sheared again? Has that violent outflow characteristic of strong shear.


Image
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:34 pm

Yes, probably peaked at 50-55 kts earlier this morning. Wind shear is increasing again.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yes, probably peaked at 50-55 kts earlier this morning. Wind shear is increasing again.



Can't imagine what the shear map looks like up there in a year like 2013, numbers are probably over 30 and 40 knots on a regular day.
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#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 22, 2013 4:17 pm

Peak intensity was likely at 1200Z since it looked good this morning.
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Tropical Storm

#60 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:12 pm

Was definitely 5-55 knots earlier today. Also, the 5PM discussion was a little weird saying "THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR." The change in symmetry was not major, and the microwave satellites I'm posting here from 4:30PM EDT this afternoon show the storm is quite well stacked with the deep convection right over both of the clearly visible centers on the 37GHz and 91GHz microwaves. The 91GHz center (shows mid level center better) is just slightly east of the 37GHz center (which shows low level center better). It almost seems that they were describing what they expected tomorrow night rather than what was going on. Very odd. I also posted the corresponding 4:15PM EDT rgb satellite where it's clear the center of deep convection was right over the microwave centers. That was a very odd discussion.

37GHz
Image

91GHz
Image

RGB satellite:
Image
Last edited by ozonepete on Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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