WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:01 pm

Latest

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (KROSA)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS
2. 6-HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS:
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 292346Z SSMI/S IMAGE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A
MICROWAVE EYE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES.
OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN
QUADRANT, WHICH IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TS 29W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING:
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
IN ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA
WILL ENSURE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL INTO LUZON. AFTERWARDS, TS 29W WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES OF LUZON. ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS KROSA WILL TRACK ACROSS HAINAN AND THE GULF OF
TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HUE, VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 120. INTERACTION WITH
THE TOPOGRAPHY OF HAINAN AND VIETNAM WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS WITH JGSM, JENS, NVGM AND EGRR
INDICATING A WEAKER SYSTEM AND A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE ECMF AND
GFS SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING MECHANISM, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND THE SPREADING OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:18 pm

after strengthening at a less than normal rate, krosa looks to be rapidly strengthening! an eye is becoming apparent.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:40 pm

euro6208 wrote:after strengthening at a less than normal rate, krosa looks to be rapidly strengthening! an eye is becoming apparent.

Image

Looks way more impressive than yesterday, which had very messed-up convection.
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#64 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:42 pm

Is this going to reach typhoon intensity before landfall?
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#65 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:47 pm

I believe JTWC will do so, JMA I'm not sure. By the way JMA also raised to intensity to 40kts, and they are expecting a 55-knot severe tropical storm before landfall in Isabela-Cagayan area. That is roughly a minimal Cat1 typhoon if make that 1-min wind average (JTWC), so close call.....
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby Alyono » Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:01 pm

euro6208 wrote:winds up to 40 knots and forecast to make landfall on halloween as a minimal typhoon.


satellite data indicate winds as high as 50 KT

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds244.png

check out the winds east of the center. Some 45 KT winds. Considering the typical low bias of ASCAT, 50 KT is a good estimate
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KROSA

#67 Postby stormkite » Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:38 pm

Image




Image



Deep convection and heavy water vapor embedded within the low clouds looks like a very moist storm environment.



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Re:

#68 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Oct 30, 2013 12:22 am

dexterlabio wrote:I believe JTWC will do so, JMA I'm not sure. By the way JMA also raised to intensity to 40kts, and they are expecting a 55-knot severe tropical storm before landfall in Isabela-Cagayan area. That is roughly a minimal Cat1 typhoon if make that 1-min wind average (JTWC), so close call.....


Its gonna be one them JMA Severe Tropical Storm/JTWC Cat1 Typhoon combos again eh hehehe
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#69 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Oct 30, 2013 12:30 am

^HAHA agreed..we always see that...... Then goes the debate if it was a typhoon or not, etc.. :lol:



But in this case we'll never know. I'm getting a bad vibe of 2006 out of this. :roll: Krosa seems to be taking great advantage of whatever favorable conditions present in Philippine sea. I should dare say it's looking impressive right now.
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#70 Postby stormkite » Wed Oct 30, 2013 1:47 am

Krosa most definitely will be at the least a cat1 before landfall

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.
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Re: Re:

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:19 am

ClarkEligue wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:I believe JTWC will do so, JMA I'm not sure. By the way JMA also raised to intensity to 40kts, and they are expecting a 55-knot severe tropical storm before landfall in Isabela-Cagayan area. That is roughly a minimal Cat1 typhoon if make that 1-min wind average (JTWC), so close call.....


Its gonna be one them JMA Severe Tropical Storm/JTWC Cat1 Typhoon combos again eh hehehe


lol...can we just eliminate this 10 min average thing? lol
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Typhoon

#72 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:05 pm

Last edited by jaguarjace on Sat Nov 02, 2013 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 02, 2013 8:31 pm

Krosa IS a typhoon, since Nov 1.Can we change the title?
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 02, 2013 9:49 pm

krosa was a very impressive typhoon that actually became a classic *donut* annular typhoon.

Korsa made it's first landfall with winds of 80 knots over northern luzon and actually strengthen to 90 knots when the center reemerges over the luzon strait.

Image

characterized by low shear and favorable sst, she managed to strengthen a bit more to 100 knots, a category 3 typhoon and has since weaken due to upwelling of cooler waters because of it's stationary movement but forecast to track to the southwest towards vietnam.
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Re:

#75 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:40 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Krosa IS a typhoon, since Nov 1.Can we change the title?


Since the board came back there have been some bugs that have to be fixed including editing the titles of threads. I can edit my threads but not threads that are not mine with that bug. Hopefully,we can fix that as soon as possible.
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:40 am

Image

peak intensity...100 knots.
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:42 am

minimal typhoon now tracking to the southwest towards vietnam but on a weakening trend...

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KROSA) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 29W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
TIGHTLY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH SHALLOWING CENTRAL CONVECTION. BASED ON
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT BUILT IN FROM THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA. A 031153Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
SHALLOWED, BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
TIGHTLY PACKED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DROPPED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. THE CYCLONE
IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD COMPONENT, WHICH CONTINUES TO FUEL THE REMNANT
CONVECTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AN EXTENSION OF THE STR HAS BUILT-IN FROM THE INDOCHINA
PENINSULA AND ASSUMED THE STEERING OF TYPHOON KROSA DEFLECTING IT TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MADE LANDFALL ACROSS VIETNAM AND DISSIPATED OVER EASTERN CAMBODIA.
THE STEADY WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL BE CAUSED BY INCREASING
VWS AND THE INFLUX OF COOLER CONTINENTAL DRY AIR FROM CHINA. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY STATE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby Meow » Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:18 am

euro6208 wrote:minimal typhoon now tracking to the southwest towards vietnam but on a weakening trend...

How could this be a TY? It just look like a TS, even JMA agrees with. Please don’t be JTWC’s advertiser.

Image
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Re: WPAC: KROSA - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:02 pm

I've noticed late in the season, typhoons that hit the Philippines tend to meander around once they get into the South China Sea. Rather than hitting China or Vietnam, they often stall, move slowly in loops, and spin down. Why is that?
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#80 Postby Alyono » Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:07 pm

this thing is toast. almost certainly a remnant low now
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