EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Depression

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2618
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Depression

#21 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:35 am

Hello Sonia!!! Congratulations on becoming our first 'S' storm in seven years. :clap:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111316
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Depression

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:02 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
400 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Note= As Storm2k is back we have found some bugs and one of them is editing title of threads that are not mine. We are trying to fix all the bugs to have storm2k run smoothly so dont worrie if the thread still has TD 18-E instead of TS Sonia.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2618
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: EPAC: EIGHTEEN-E - Depression

#23 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:27 am

Best Track up to 40 knots!


EP, 18, 2013110312, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1100W, 40, 1003, TS


Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111316
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:49 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SONIA HAS EXPANDED THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS. BASED ON THE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE RECENT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE THE
RESULT OF DECREASING SHEAR AS SONIA MOVED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT. THIS RELAXATION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR
TONIGHT....AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.
SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME SONIA REACHES THE COAST
AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO
DECOUPLE. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWARD OR 005 DEGREES AT 7 KT. SONIA
SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD VERY SOON AS DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. SONIA
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO MONDAY MORNING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.6N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.7N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 25.9N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10397
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#25 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:54 am

Looks like we're tied with 2009 for most storms since the inactive era began. Or we are tied with 1994 and 2009 for most storms since 1992. In EPAC proper only, we're tied with 20006 for most NS since 1992. Amazing despite 1 major hurricane. Strange year globally for 2013.

Let's see if it can become our third landfalling TS of the year (though Octave and Juliette and possible Flossie all may have moved inland). It's been one hec of a year landfall wise as well.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2618
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re:

#26 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Looks like we're tied with 2009 for most storms since the inactive era began. Or we are tied with 1994 and 2009 for most storms since 1992. In EPAC proper only, we're tied with 20006 for most NS since 1992. Amazing despite 1 major hurricane. Strange year globally for 2013.

Let's see if it can become our third landfalling TS of the year (though Octave and Juliette and possible Flossie all may have moved inland). It's been one hec of a year landfall wise as well.



Seeing that November has just begun, and the EPAC does produce storms in November (examples: Hurricane Sergio 2006, Hurricane Kenneth 2011), I'd say there is a 10-20% chance we make it to our 'T' storm, and if this does occur, that'll be the most names used in the 21st century so far. If Henriette gets upgraded to a major, it would bring us up to 2 major hurricanes. What are your thoughts on this?


Back to Sonia now. The storm still looks good, with a CDO feature present with some nice convection, and relatively good banding.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10397
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Re:

#27 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:33 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Looks like we're tied with 2009 for most storms since the inactive era began. Or we are tied with 1994 and 2009 for most storms since 1992. In EPAC proper only, we're tied with 20006 for most NS since 1992. Amazing despite 1 major hurricane. Strange year globally for 2013.

Let's see if it can become our third landfalling TS of the year (though Octave and Juliette and possible Flossie all may have moved inland). It's been one hec of a year landfall wise as well.



Seeing that November has just begun, and the EPAC does produce storms in November (examples: Hurricane Sergio 2006, Hurricane Kenneth 2011), I'd say there is a 10-20% chance we make it to our 'T' storm, and if this does occur, that'll be the most names used in the 21st century so far. If Henriette gets upgraded to a major, it would bring us up to 2 major hurricanes. What are your thoughts on this?


Back to Sonia now. The storm still looks good, with a CDO feature present with some nice convection, and relatively good banding.


EPAC has only had more than 1 storm in November twice, once in 1961 and again in 2006. I realize that this season has been resilient, but the odds of it happening this year are low. Granted, I said the same thing. If 2013 makes it to T, it's the most storms since 1992 EPAC proper or total proper. Also, another record. It has been 30 years since the name Sonia was assigned to an EPAC tropical cyclone. In 1983, the first time the current set of names was used, all 21 names were assigned.

Sonia may have a shot at reaching 45-50 knts before shear kicks in.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10397
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

#28 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Nov 03, 2013 5:14 pm

Due to the time change, adv time is an hour earlier. Forgot about that.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032031
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

SONIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING ELONGATED IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT SONIA
HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE SONIA MAKES LANDFALL.
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SONIA HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.4N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111316
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
400 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM 3SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ELSEWHERE IN WEST-CENTRAL
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST. SONIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF SONIA WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SONIA REACHES
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL. SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...SONIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...IN
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2035
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#30 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:23 pm

Looks like this may make it to the Mexican coastline as a tropical storm.

Mexico has gotten nailed this season, on both sides.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2618
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re:

#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:37 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Looks like this may make it to the Mexican coastline as a tropical storm.

Mexico has gotten nailed this season, on both sides.


Hopefully they're not affected too much by Sonia. :(
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2542
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 108.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15983
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby RL3AO » Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:38 pm

Had to post this from my area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013

A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE TWIN CITIES METRO.
OVERALL...THE PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT
CHANGED A WHOLE LOT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND YOU CAN FIND A
LOT OF CURRENT THINKING IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS. FIRST...HAVE A
FEELING MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CORRECT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
CONTAINED IN TROPICAL STORM SONIA OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
. THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE FULLY INGESTED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SECOND...ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
THIS TYPE OF MOISTURE WILL VERY LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DEPENDING ON WETBULB
TEMPERATURES...WE COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICAL COOLING LATE
TUESDAY AND A TRANSITION TO SNOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. THIRD...ALSO AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...EPV...AND FULL SATURATION NEAR THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE MAY LEAD TO BANDING WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES TUESDAY
EVENING. FINALLY...BEING THE FIRST REAL EVENT OF THE SEASON AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACTS ON THE TUESDAY EVENING AND/OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...THE EARLIER THE WORD IS OUT THE
BETTER.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111316
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 04, 2013 6:51 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME.
NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR.
EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 111316
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: SONIA - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:21 pm

REMNANTS OF SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
HAS DIMINISHED...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 31
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#36 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:42 pm

could be the end of the EPAC hurricane season
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 3 guests