BoB: Post-Tropical 30W

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Grifforzer
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:04 am

** WTPQ22 RJTD 040600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 09.4N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 09.3N 119.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

JMA forecast tropical storm as it heads towards the Sulu Sea
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby Meow » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:11 am

Grifforzer wrote:JMA forecast tropical storm as it heads towards the Sulu Sea

Once it gets an international name, it will be called Podul, the 31st named storm.
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#23 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 04, 2013 4:50 am

What?
===============================================================================
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE (FINAL)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "WILMA"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Monday, 04 November 2013
"WILMA" has weakened into a Low Pressure Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 2:00 p.m.) 32 km Southeast of Tagbilaran City
Coordinates: 9.5°N, 124.1°E
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised
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Re:

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:27 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:What?
===============================================================================
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE (FINAL)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "WILMA"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Monday, 04 November 2013
"WILMA" has weakened into a Low Pressure Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 2:00 p.m.) 32 km Southeast of Tagbilaran City
Coordinates: 9.5°N, 124.1°E
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


But how??? :think:
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Re: Re:

#25 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:35 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:What?
===============================================================================
Severe Weather Bulletin Number THREE (FINAL)
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "WILMA"
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Monday, 04 November 2013
"WILMA" has weakened into a Low Pressure Area.
Location of Center:
(as of 2:00 p.m.) 32 km Southeast of Tagbilaran City
Coordinates: 9.5°N, 124.1°E
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


But how??? :think:

They think that this weakened. I wonder why!
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#26 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 04, 2013 7:58 am

Terrible weather over here in our place!!!
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#27 Postby euro6208 » Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:21 am

Image

Center about to emerge over water again and forecast has a strong tropical storm approaching vietnam...

WDPN32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM
EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF
BOHOL AND CEBU AND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE ISLAND OF NEGROS.
THE ANIMATION DEPICTS IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 041137Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FURTHER STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS TO THE TD IN THE FORM OF DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR
ANIMATION, THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AND A DOPPLER RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM CEBU STATION, CEBU (COURTESY OF PAGASA). THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS DEDUCED FROM PRIOR OVER-WATER
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND ACCOUNTS FOR
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS WELL AS THE SLIGHT ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENT
OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD CHANNEL, AS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD 30W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE TD WILL EXIT INTO THE SULU
SEA AND DRIFT TOWARDS NORTHERN PALAWAN. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SOMETIME AFTER TAU 12 WHERE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM WATERS ALONG
THE TRACK, WILL FUEL MODEST INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN, THIS
TIME OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM, NEAR THE CITY OF NHA TRANG. TD 30W WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM AND SOUTHERN CAMBODIA
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 30W WILL BRIEFLY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF OF THAILAND, CROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, AND EXIT
INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA AS A WEAK TD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST TRACK WITH NVGM AND
GFDN AS THE OUTLIERS TO THE NORTH. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
SPREAD DUE TO THE MULTIPLE INTERACTIONS WITH VARIOUS LANDMASSES.
EVEN THOUGH THE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE POORLY
DEFINED LLCC AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#28 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:34 am

IMD following the 30W forecast to enter into the Bay of Bengal

Weather Outlook for subsequent 4 days from 07th November to 11th November, 2013

♦ Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
♦Rain/thundershowers would occur at few places over Tamilnadu and Kerala.
♦Rain/snow would occur at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
♦A low pressure area may emerge over Andaman sea around 10th Nov.
♦Weather would be mainly dry/dry over rest parts of the country.
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Re:

#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:45 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Terrible weather over here in our place!!!




Any lightning?
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#30 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:30 pm

Image - Linda 97 is a historical precedent for the storm. Was a TD over the Philippines, then struck Vietnam before moving into the northern Indian, all in early November. Really hope Vietnam learned its lesson though, since Linda caused over 1,000 deaths.
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#31 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:38 pm

Here is the 21:00 UTC warning. Peak is at 60kts.

Image
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Terrible weather over here in our place!!!




Any lightning?

Yes... Accompanied by a tornado... It is due to Wilma though.

Winds here in Cebu were about 50 km/h but in the tornado was 100 km/h
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#33 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Nov 04, 2013 11:04 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Linda 97 is a historical precedent for the storm. Was a TD over the Philippines, then struck Vietnam before moving into the northern Indian, all in early November. Really hope Vietnam learned its lesson though, since Linda caused over 1,000 deaths.


It was higher than that. Linda caused more than 3,000 deaths. The toll may have been as high as 4,500.
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#34 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:39 am

30W in the Bay of Bengal

Extended Outlook from India Meteorological Department
A low pressure area may emerge over Andaman sea around November 9th and may intensify further

Image

This is NOT a saved image
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#35 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:25 am

Image

WOW! The 29th named storm for 2013 is right here strengthening and headed straight for vietnam.

WTPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 10.9N 115.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 115.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.1N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.1N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.2N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.4N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.2N 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.3N 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 114.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM EAST OF HO
CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#36 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:26 am

AMSU data showing winds as high as 48 knots...

WDPN32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THE EIR INDICATES SUBTLE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CURVATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 051025Z CORIOLIS
IMAGE THAT REVEALS CURVED BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
CORIOLIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK (05
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 30W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WHERE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK, WILL FUEL
MODEST INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN, THIS TIME OVER SOUTHERN
VIETNAM, NEAR THE CITY OF NHA TRANG. TS 30W WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS
IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM AND SOUTHERN CAMBODIA THROUGH TAU 48. PRIOR
TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE GULF OF THAILAND AND CROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA INTO THE
ANDAMAN SEA, MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W TRACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AS A WEAK TD
AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 35 KTS BY TAU 120. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS, WHICH ARE BEGINNING
TO INDICATE MODEST REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
AFTER TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JENI AND JGSM, THE JTWC MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AFTER
TAU 72.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#37 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 05, 2013 12:49 pm

Tropical Storm 30 a heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Asia:

Tropical Storm 30 will hit southern Vietnam near 12 UTC on Wednesday, and bring heavy rains of 8+ inches to portions of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand over the next few days. By Friday, the storm will emerge in the North Indian Ocean, where it will likely regenerate and potentially threaten Myanmar, India, or Bangladesh early next week.

Jeff Masters


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2570

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#38 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:01 pm

dvorak up to 2.5 from both PGTW and SSD to support tropical storm status...

:D
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Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#39 Postby Meow » Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:14 pm

euro6208 wrote:WOW! The 29th named storm for 2013 is right here strengthening and headed straight for vietnam.

Are you kidding? 30W is not named!
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Meow

#40 Postby Meow » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:36 pm

JTWC regrets. They think 30W was just a TD at 12Z, and it won’t be a TS.
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