BoB: Post-Tropical 30W

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#41 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:38 pm

Satellite data shows winds as high as 40 KT. I am once again baffled as to what JTWC is doing. Talk about forecast inconsistency between the shifts there
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#42 Postby Alyono » Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:38 pm

0 likes   

Meow

#43 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 06, 2013 2:48 am

JMA expects it will be a TS in Cambodia. :eek:

Image

TD
Issued at 07:25 UTC, 6 November 2013

<Analyses at 06/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°25'(11.4°)
E110°10'(110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25'(11.4°)
E104°30'(104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#44 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Nov 06, 2013 9:49 am

last advisory from JMA

<Commentary 21:06 days>
Size -
Strength -
Tropical cyclone
Existence region South China Sea
Center position 20 minutes 11 degrees north latitude (11.3 degrees)
10 minutes 109 degrees east longitude (109.2 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed West 25km / h (13kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m / s (30kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23m / s (45kt)
0 likes   

Meow

Re:

#45 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 06, 2013 11:44 am

Grifforzer wrote:last advisory from JMA

<Commentary 21:06 days>
Size -
Strength -
Tropical cyclone
Existence region South China Sea
Center position 20 minutes 11 degrees north latitude (11.3 degrees)
10 minutes 109 degrees east longitude (109.2 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed West 25km / h (13kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m / s (30kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23m / s (45kt)

Is this directly translated from Japanese by Google Translate? It looks so weird.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15186
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re:

#46 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:13 pm

Alyono wrote:Satellite data shows winds as high as 40 KT. I am once again baffled as to what JTWC is doing. Talk about forecast inconsistency between the shifts there


Well JTWC upgraded this into a 35 knot Tropical storm earlier whereas JMA kept it at only 30 knots..

Looking at the Best Track, The upgrade disappeared... :double:
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15186
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#47 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:14 pm

Image

WTPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.4N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 11.4N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 109.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVOLVING STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHALLOW AND
BECOMES FURTHER BROKEN ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATING
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
FURTHER ERODE DUE TO THE LAND EFFECTS OF VIETNAM AND CAMBODIA,
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS WEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF
THAILAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 31W (HAIYAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

Re: Re:

#48 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Nov 06, 2013 5:19 pm

Meow wrote:
Grifforzer wrote:last advisory from JMA

<Commentary 21:06 days>
Size -
Strength -
Tropical cyclone
Existence region South China Sea
Center position 20 minutes 11 degrees north latitude (11.3 degrees)
10 minutes 109 degrees east longitude (109.2 degrees)
Direction of travel, speed West 25km / h (13kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m / s (30kt)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23m / s (45kt)

Is this directly translated from Japanese by Google Translate? It looks so weird.


ya it was using the google translation.. could not find the original warning in the list from of the world's tropical cyclone advisories http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/archive/13110612 page.
0 likes   

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2874
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#49 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:42 pm

Whether it will be classified as the same system or not, I‘d say this still has 50/50 chance of reforming in the BOB
0 likes   

Meow

Re: Re:

#50 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 06, 2013 10:30 pm

Grifforzer wrote:ya it was using the google translation.. could not find the original warning in the list from of the world's tropical cyclone advisories http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/archive/13110612 page.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

You can bookmark this.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15186
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#51 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:23 pm

Image

over the gulf of thailand...

TXPQ24 KNES 071513
TCSWNP

A. 30W (NONAME)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 12.3N

D. 101.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS EMERGED BACK OVER WATER AFTER SPENDING MOST OF
THE LAST 24 HOURS OVER LAND BUT CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED BASED ON MOST RECENT SSMIS PASS AT 1243Z. CONVECTION MEASURES
BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5/10 IN A TIGHT SPIRAL NEAR THE CENTER. MET IS 1.0 WHILE
PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 944
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Perth, Australia

Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#52 Postby jaguarjace » Thu Nov 07, 2013 9:03 pm

THE REMNANTS OF 30W HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
THAILAND NEAR 12.5N 100.8E, APPROXIMATELY 74 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A POORLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A MORE DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR, LEADING TO INCREASED VORTICITY
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION SUPPORTING THE BETTER
ORGANIZATION OF THE REMNANTS OF 30W. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENT WESTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10
KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE
FAVORABLE (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer: Any statements I make are only my opinion. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Current Storm Floaters are available here | Past Storm Floaters are available here

Meow

#53 Postby Meow » Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:35 pm

JMA never downgraded 30W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 100E WEST SLOWLY.

JTWC analysed that 30W has made landfall, as well as FNMOC moved 30W into the Indian Ocean section.

TPPN11 PGTW 080319

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (OVER THAILAND)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 12.7N

D. 99.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
0 likes   

Meow

#54 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 1:20 am

JTWC began to discuss 30W in their Indian Ocean section.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.5 100.8E, AND IS NOW BEING DISCUSSED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN. SEE
REF B (ABIO10 PGTW 080600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 99.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080230Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALONG WITH ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
REVEALS A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE LLCC
CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS
ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE
ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   

Meow

#55 Postby Meow » Fri Nov 08, 2013 2:51 am

IMD began to monitor 30W.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER TENASSERIM COAST AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. IT WOULD MOVE WESTWARDS AND EMERGE AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER ANDAMAN SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15186
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: 30W - Tropical Depression

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:01 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TD 30W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 99.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 95.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 082348Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC
WITH OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOW STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Meow

#57 Postby Meow » Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:56 am

30W should be moved into another forum right now.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 113648
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: BoB: Ex Tropical Depression 30W

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:38 am

Is now in this forum as it has entered the Bay of Bengal.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15186
Age: 31
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: BoB: Ex Tropical Depression 30W

#59 Postby euro6208 » Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:19 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
88.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
112337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS
WELL AS DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW, CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

TropicalTy
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:32 pm

#60 Postby TropicalTy » Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:15 am

0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest