BoB: Post-Tropical 30W

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Hurricane_Luis
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#61 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:16 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued

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WTIO22 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 85.3E TO 10.8N 80.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 85.9E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS NEW FORMATIVE BANDS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTORS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AS EVIDENCED
ON A 130906Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS EASILY OFFSET BY
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141300Z. //
NNNN
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Re: BoB: Ex Tropical Depression 30W

#62 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:43 am

if this was in the pacific and atlantic basins, it would be considered a TD but JTWC starts warning at 35 knots in these part of the world...
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Re: BoB: Ex Tropical Depression 30W

#63 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:19 am

Image

Reissued...

WTIO22 PGTW 141300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131300Z NOV 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 131300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 85.7E TO 10.4N 80.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0N 85.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4N
85.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED, YET WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSETTING EASTERLY
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW, CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: BoB: Ex Tropical Depression 30W

#64 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 15, 2013 4:10 pm

TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 014
WTIO32 PGTW 151500
1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 9.5N 82.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 82.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.6N 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 9.5N 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 9.4N 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---


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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#65 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Nov 15, 2013 9:24 pm

Interesting....to think that 30W actually developed first before Haiyan in the Philippine Sea.. It's been around for almost 2 weeks now. But are we assuming the original LLCC is retained?
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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#66 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:06 am

Unnamed TS

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#67 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:28 am

Still (sorta) going on the (sorta) floater

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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#68 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:51 am

30W is still active.
Image

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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#69 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:04 pm

Can this travel the world? :D
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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#70 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Can this travel the world? :D


It seems to think so. :D But theres a desert in the way.
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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#71 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:46 pm

Maybe it wants to be like Cyclone Leon-Eline in 2000.

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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#72 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:54 pm

Stayin' alive.....lol

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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#73 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:39 am

supercane4867 wrote:Stayin' alive.....lol


Welcome to Africa
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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#74 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:25 am

So the Philippines' Wilma is going to Africa right now. Lol I don't know but I find this entertaining and interesting at the same time. Will it remain disorganized?


Will be way more interesting if it makes to the so-called African Wave Train (is it still active this time of the year?) and emerge in the Atlantic. lol I know it's silly but if it happens, it would be crazier....
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#75 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:40 am

the African wave train was not really on this year...
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Re: BoB: Tropical Storm 30W

#76 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:34 pm

Yes, Cape-Verde season ended with one Cape-Verde hurricane, Humberto at 85 mph. All other waves were suffocated by dry air and/or mutilated by absurdly strong wind shear before they could even near hurricane strength. Only Humberto made it to a hurricane, albeit marginally. The second most intense Cape-Verde storm near the Cape-Verde islands was Dorian, at 60 mph. Unbelievable. :lol:
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