WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

What's interesting is that the bulk of the GFS ensemble members has the track passing through batangas and Cavite provinces while the deterministic GFS track is on the southern edge of the ensemble. Anyway this looks to be a really threatening system for the Philippines.

Can you shoot me the link for the ensemble man? Kinda lost it.

[mrbagyo]

What's interesting is that the bulk of the GFS ensemble members has the track passing through batangas and Cavite provinces while the deterministic GFS track is on the southern edge of the ensemble. Anyway this looks to be a really threatening system for the Philippines.

wow, Batangas-Cavite area???... that must be very near my location, Tagaytay city...



a quick look at the mighty STR that will steer this system.

99W is moving west, too far to affect your area. Models are already shifting south...

yah. the models are shifting south - but those shifts are not yet done... it can still go north or south, slow down or speed up, it all depends on the STR.
still a lot of uncertainty with the models.
whether it will hit my area or not, I will prepare.

here's a link for the GFS ensemble

[mrbagyo]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 001




REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 155.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 6
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 030523Z NOV 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN23
PGTW 030530). REFER TO TYPHOON 29W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Extratropical94]

Wow, 120 knots just before hitting the Philippines.

[mrbagyo]

Wow, 120 knots just before hitting the Philippines.

and that's still conservative IMO...
my guess - it will become another "SUPER"

[dexterlabio]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

I got the ensemble members here. Having said that, the GFS ensemble itself seems to be shifting south as well. Looking like a trend now which is interesting.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30W and 31W remind me of Son-Tinh and Bopha...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

BOPHA's forecast track:


31W's [PODUL] forecast track:


SEE THE SIMILARITY?

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah there is a similarity. Though Bopha was already a fully developed cyclone way south of 5N latitude, and it happened in December, time of the year when the ridge is overpowering. It was a remarkable tropical system given the time and location.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess the challenge is which one will be named first. Also, let us see if this will reach ''super'' typhoon status, or even a cat 5!

[cycloneye]

I guess the challenge is which one will be named first. Also, let us see if this will reach ''super'' typhoon status, or even a cat 5!

What are the next two names?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Yeah there is a similarity. Though Bopha was already a fully developed cyclone way south of 5N latitude, and it happened in December, time of the year when the ridge is overpowering. It was a remarkable tropical system given the time and location.

Also, Bopha developed at a lower latitude - as you said, and Bopha was moving at 10 kts, while this is at 17 kts. Bopha was predicted to be 110 kts, 31W at 120 kts.



Usually, initial forecasts turn out to be weaker than what they actually are and I guess that this will be ''super''.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I guess the challenge is which one will be named first. Also, let us see if this will reach ''super'' typhoon status, or even a cat 5!

What are the next two names?

For WMO/JMA's list: Haiyan and Podul. For PAGASA's list: Wilma and Yolanda.

[cycloneye]

From Guam NWS.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1000 PM CHST SUN NOV 3 2013

CORRECTED HEADER

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W HAS FORMED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON CHUUK...LOSAP...PULUWAT...ULUL...FANANU AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE...AND FOR SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND
WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK AND PULUWAT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL AND FANANU. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI.
TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR
MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

185 MILES EAST OF LOSAP
250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK (WENO)
270 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
420 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
435 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
570 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
755 MILES EAST OF FARAULEP
790 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
1200 MILES EAST OF YAP

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
PASSES LOSAP AND CHUUK MONDAY MORNING...AND PULUWAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE A TYPHOON IN THE VICINITY OF SATAWAL...WOLEAI
AND FARAULEP LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...LOSAP AND CHUUK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SECURE ANY LIGHT
OUTSIDE OBJECTS THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN OVER. PROTECT
PROPERTY AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS.
DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE WEATHER AND
ROUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH ON LOSAP BY
500 AM MONDAY MORNING AND ON CHUUK BY 800 AM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND FALL TO 20 TO 30 MPH LATE IN THE DAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF
12 TO 16 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. IN CHUUK
LAGOON...SEAS WILL BE ROUGH AT 5 TO 7 FEET. INUNDATION OF 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY MONDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL
FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...PULUWAT...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
MORE SHOULD BE COMPLETED MONDAY MORNING. SECURE ANY LIGHT OUTSIDE
OBJECTS THAT MIGHT BE DAMAGED OR BLOWN OVER. PROTECT PROPERTY
AGAINST COASTAL INUNDATION...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL ADVERSE WEATHER AND ROUGH SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PEAK AT 50 TO 65 MPH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO SOUTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 25 T0 35 MPH BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 13 TO 16 FEET WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF OF
15 TO 18 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...ULUL AND FANANU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY IF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
ADVERSE WEATHER AND ROUGH SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING. BUT IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
31W MOVES MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ON FANANU AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ON ULUL.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FEET WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO
12 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY MONDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL
FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

...SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD...WATER AND GASOLINE IN CASE OF A
TYPHOON. IF NECESSARY...BE PREPARED TO GO TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER.

...WIND INFORMATION...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF ALONG WITH COASTAL INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM MONDAY MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just put a video out on this one. I also talk about 30W but to be honest I think this will be the biggest threat to the loss of life possibly yet thi year.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYhtRriYp9I[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

WTPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 6.4N 154.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.4N 154.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 6.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 7.2N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 7.6N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 8.0N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 8.8N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 9.8N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.2N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 6.5N 153.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 6
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 29W (KROSA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Residents of the islands, watch out!

800
WTPQ33 PGUM 031307
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
1100 PM CHST SUN NOV 3 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W STEADILY MOVING WESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK AND
PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL...FARAULEP AND WOLEAI
IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74
MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULUL AND FANANU IN
CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF
40 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.4N 154.3E

ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
ABOUT 180 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF PULUWAT
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 685 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 715 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 1130 MILES EAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.3
EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W NEAR LOSAP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND JUST SOUTH OF CHUUK LATE MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON LATE
TUESDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

I am quite excited for what this storm might bring to our area...we had tremendous rain, winds, and flooding occured and that is what i expect when this system passes south of us.

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENAHNCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AND AN IMPROVING BANDING FEATURE LOOSELY
WRAPPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031102Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE DEPTH OF THE BANDING FEATURE IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT AS WELL AS INDICATES THE IMPROVING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU-B IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE (5 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TD
31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR FOR THE ENTIRETY OF ITS
LIFESPAN. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECASTED ALONG THE TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72 AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
PERENNIALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT. TD 31W IS FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 48 AND 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
YAP.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 31W WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE
SEA WHERE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL AND SEA SURFACE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO REACH 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND 120 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
OBJECTIVE AIDS AS WELL AS INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE EXTREMELY LIMITED
THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST LIFECYCLE; THUS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THOUGH THE STEERING
PATTERN APPEARS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS
LIFESPAN, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE
LIMITED DYNAMIC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

good looking vorticity...

divergence and convergence is fair and shear is very favorable with an anticyclone providing low shear right over the system...

favorable moist environment for both 30 and 31W.

http://i.imgur.com/5ghEICE.gif

[euro6208]

Maximum Potential Intensity Pressure in the 860 hpa mark but further south has hpa of around 800 hpa...truly incredible...



Maximum Potential Intensity Winds- 160 to 180 knots! but have seen near 200 knots in areas of very low pressure...



Incredible Massive area of super perennial favorable conditions dominates the wpac every year...