WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[madness]

There is going to be damage all along the Vietnam coastline from Da Nang right through to Hai Phong
Plus the impact it will have on Hainan Island and western Guangxi province, China

Major flooding is possible in Northern Vietnam, with torrential rain probably occurring late Monday.

[stormkite]

next stop... densely populated and surge prone Hanoi

TYPHOON HAIYAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 116.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.11.2013 12.4N 116.6E INTENSE

12UTC 09.11.2013 14.4N 113.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.11.2013 16.4N 109.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.11.2013 18.3N 107.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.11.2013 19.6N 106.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY










Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Incredible footage here by James.See it below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke6ureLcpkk#t=30

[somethingfunny]

I know 2 of my relatives are already missing...

The Hotel Alejandro in southern Tacloban is where the storm chasers I quoted just above were staying. It was largely destroyed but many did survive there so there is hope. The military is in the area with relief supplies now. It will take a long time to get communications back however. How are you keeping your iPhone charged? Be cautious with how you use your battery life.

It was borrowed. Now, we charged it. I will tell them [the owners as they know me] about the damage.

Anyways, this was like... a NIGHTMARE! 100 kilometers away, still experienced typhoon-force winds of probably 150 kph. Terrible... Hope for us to recover too.

Josh Morgerman just updated us, everybody in that hotel is believed to have survived.

Now that we have Internet, James Reynolds was able to post some GoPro shots from our experience at the hotel (his main camera died during the storm and he's still staying to salvage the footage off of it). These graphic shots capture not just the violent winds but also the desperate chaos that occurred within the hotel when the storm surge swept in. We're happy to report no one in our hotel died.

Also, I'm very happy to report that Jim Edds (@ExtremeStorms) is alive.

@twc_hurricane: Just spoke with @ExtremeStorms(Jim Edds) in Tacloban. "They need to park a ship off the coast. Relief is needed here. Now."

[Ntxw]

Per CNN: Philippines Red Cross says initial estimates indicate up to 1200 people killed

[Alyono]

if we're getting 1200 already without reaching the hard hit areas... we are looking at something truly horrific

[Alyono]

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43318-eas ... on-yolanda

200-300 dead in a city north of Guiuan. This city missed the eyewall

[CrazyC83]

Just a curious question. Is it possible for a super typhoon like this hitting Manila?

Manila is on the opposite coast so it would have to come in on the recurve from the South China Sea. An intense typhoon is certainly possible there, but not sure about a super typhoon - at least not easily. A recurving storm is much more prone to surge there though.

If Haiyan was farther north and sent the eyewall into Manila, they would have likely had Cat 3 conditions. That is still extremely devastating, but not to this degree. These are Joplin-like...

[CrazyC83]

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43318-eastern-samar-casualty-typhoon-yolanda

200-300 dead in a city north of Guiuan. This city missed the eyewall

The final death toll may be over 10,000 at this rate. We haven't even had words from some of these towns that took the worst of it.

[CrazyC83]

next stop... densely populated and surge prone Hanoi

TYPHOON HAIYAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 116.6E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.11.2013 12.4N 116.6E INTENSE

12UTC 09.11.2013 14.4N 113.4E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.11.2013 16.4N 109.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.11.2013 18.3N 107.4E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.11.2013 19.6N 106.5E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY










Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Timing is everything. If it makes landfall before the recurve, the surge disaster might be minimized. But if it stays over water and makes landfall just south of Hanoi, we may see another epic disaster.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How is stormstrike now? Is he fine? I guess power there isn't restored.

[ohno]

Just a curious question. Is it possible for a super typhoon like this hitting Manila?

Manila is on the opposite coast so it would have to come in on the recurve from the South China Sea. An intense typhoon is certainly possible there, but not sure about a super typhoon - at least not easily. A recurving storm is much more prone to surge there though.

If Haiyan was farther north and sent the eyewall into Manila, they would have likely had Cat 3 conditions. That is still extremely devastating, but not to this degree. These are Joplin-like...

Let's say if Haiyan developed into a storm between 10-12 North and 150-155 East and moved W-NW, will is still develop as super typhoon?

[CrazyC83]

Just a curious question. Is it possible for a super typhoon like this hitting Manila?

Manila is on the opposite coast so it would have to come in on the recurve from the South China Sea. An intense typhoon is certainly possible there, but not sure about a super typhoon - at least not easily. A recurving storm is much more prone to surge there though.

If Haiyan was farther north and sent the eyewall into Manila, they would have likely had Cat 3 conditions. That is still extremely devastating, but not to this degree. These are Joplin-like...

Let's say if Haiyan developed into a storm between 10-12 North and 150-155 East and moved W-NW, will is still develop as super typhoon?

That is very possible. Worst case would be a landfall near Mauban Island for wind and a Haiyan-like storm would still bring Cat 3-4 conditions (maybe Cat 5 locally) to Manila. A surge disaster in Manlia Bay would be most likely in a recurving storm though.

[Ntxw]

^ Manila and Tampa are similar in that a recurving storm would likely be the reason. Of course both need perfect conditions at the right times in the right pattern for a STY which is more difficult to come by. Waters on either side of the Philippines are warm enough most of the year just need right atmospheric conditions for catastrophe.

[dexterlabio]

OT: there was a moderate storm surge in Manila Bay during Typhoon Nesat in2011.....Nesat made landfall in Aurora province....but the storm surge in Leyte during Haiyan was much more devastating and much more inland.

[euro6208]

another catastrophe in the making ...

A major surge event could be on tap for Hanoi even with a Cat 1 storm winds. The geometry of that bay would amplify any effect and the Hanoi area is on a low-lying delta. What we're seeing might be only the tip of the iceberg...

[ohno]

Manila is on the opposite coast so it would have to come in on the recurve from the South China Sea. An intense typhoon is certainly possible there, but not sure about a super typhoon - at least not easily. A recurving storm is much more prone to surge there though.

If Haiyan was farther north and sent the eyewall into Manila, they would have likely had Cat 3 conditions. That is still extremely devastating, but not to this degree. These are Joplin-like...

Let's say if Haiyan developed into a storm between 10-12 North and 150-155 East and moved W-NW, will is still develop as super typhoon?

That is very possible. Worst case would be a landfall near Mauban Island for wind and a Haiyan-like storm would still bring Cat 3-4 conditions (maybe Cat 5 locally) to Manila. A surge disaster in Manlia Bay would be most likely in a recurving storm though.

Thanks. I was asking because I think we here in the PHL really depends on NCR (National Capital Region aka Metro Manila) in just about everything. Can't really imagine the disaster if a storm like Haiyan hits Manila. At least there will be no surge coming from the east, unless it is possible in lake like Laguna de Bay.

But there is a mountain range called Sierra Madre, averaging 1800 meter in height, located along the eastcoast of luzon. Will it help weaken a cat5 storm?

[vbhoutex]

I just stumbled across this, online - not sure of its veracity, but it seems to fit. Really bad...

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
I've not from Jim Edds @extremestorms I hope he's OK. Surge swamped ground floor of most buildings downtown, higher right on sea
7 minutes ago

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
Mark, Josh & I are safe, evacced to Cebu on air force C130. Tacloban devastated, death & destruction everywhere #YolandaPH #Haiyan
15 minutes ago

This backs that up. https://www.facebook.com/james.reynolds.92754397?fref=ts I am very concerned about Jim Edds since he was in the Eastern part of Tacloban City. Hopefully we will hear from him soon.
Edited at 9:45am CST-We now know that Jim is ok. He made a plea for supplies for the area in a brief satellite phone conversation with TWC.

[ronjon]

I'm not sure if this video was posted earlier, but it's so heartbreaking. Horrible glimpse of storm surge impact near the coast that's total destruction. My heart goes out to the people whose lives have been turned upside down.

http://rt.com/news/typhoon-cyclone-dead-philippines-463/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I just stumbled across this, online - not sure of its veracity, but it seems to fit. Really bad...

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
I've not from Jim Edds @extremestorms I hope he's OK. Surge swamped ground floor of most buildings downtown, higher right on sea
7 minutes ago

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
Mark, Josh & I are safe, evacced to Cebu on air force C130. Tacloban devastated, death & destruction everywhere #YolandaPH #Haiyan
15 minutes ago

This backs that up. https://www.facebook.com/james.reynolds.92754397?fref=ts I am very concerned about Jim Edds since he was in the Eastern part of Tacloban City. Hopefully we will hear from him soon.

At least they're safe. In Cebu City [where I live], we had damage but only mild-moderate. Although, winds were strong enough to make roofs fly and trees fall and stumble unto the ground. I heard a scary sound -like a lady singing and the windows were shaking. No one was reported dead YET in our city.

According to the NDRRMC, most of those affected come from Cebu, with over 2.5 million people ALONE and over 1 million come from an urban area.

People affected ''in their report'' in Tacloban was 1,495 only. Maybe because it can't be reached properly!

ANYWAYS

Damage in our city - Cebu credits to Sun.Star:

Flooded. Mahiga Creek overflows.


Storm Surge over SRP - Near south Cebu:



Northern Cebu-which was directly hit, had severe damage and almost everything there was wiped out!

Daanbantayan


Bogo


Destructive and heart breaking!