WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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#1241 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:41 pm

Amazing that the southern Philippines have endured back to back late season years cat 5 super typhoon landfalls. Bopha in Mindinao 2012 and Haiyan in Leyte 2013. Both likely 1 and 2 costliest in the country's history.
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Re: Re:

#1242 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:43 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
PaulR wrote:My wife (from Cebu) tells me there is also no equivalent word for "storm surge" in Visayan language. There's probably not one in the local (Leyte) dialect either?

What about something like rapidly rising ocean/water levels?

Pag-ambak sa tubig. Probably...
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1243 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:45 pm

latest

WDPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
STRONG WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) AND A DEVELOPING EYE. A
TRMM 090059Z 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE TCB AS WELL AS A RE-BUILDING
EYEWALL, WHICH HAS A BREAK IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES (102 KNOTS) AND CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES (127 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 31W
SHOULD TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
A 115-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL NEAR TAU 24. GFDN REMAINS
THE SOLE OUTLIER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND INDICATES
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND A GRADUAL RE-CURVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR CONSISTENCY AND
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER RE-CURVE INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE VIETNAM COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
SST AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TY 31W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INTO VIETNAM AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1244 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:46 pm

Haiyan continues to re-intensify with convective band wrapping around the eye

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1245 Postby PaulR » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:47 pm

The Philippines also has this to contend with (tho' not TOO often, thankfully!)

http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/P ... 451310.htm

Even weather played a role then, as rain from a TS combined with volcanic ash to collapse roofs, killing many people.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1246 Postby dzop » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:49 pm

Yeah, but have you seen that most recent video out of Tacloban from that "Ziggy" reporter who rode out the storm? There's about 5-10 seconds of footage of Charley-esque, clearly major hurricane / super typhoon winds. I've been in Cat 1/Cat 2, and that video is way worse than that. As much as I trust models, I trust ground-truth more, and the damage reports and video strongly suggest that at least some parts of Tacloban got a full wind hit.

Alyono wrote:
thunderchief wrote:
Reading on the tstorms list that Tacloban "only" received cat 1/2 winds. The strongest winds did in fact remain south of the city.



No. The southern half of the city was directly hit by the strong-side eyewall and received upper end cat 5 winds. This is clear from the earlier radar and satellite images. The damage there will be total. Only the best built steel reinforced concrete structures will remain.


Are you on that mailing list of pro trop mets? It has been well discussed today that the strongest winds did miss the city and someone cited a modeling analysis as further evidence.
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Re:

#1247 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 11:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:Amazing that the southern Philippines have endured back to back late season years cat 5 super typhoon landfalls. Bopha in Mindinao 2012 and Haiyan in Leyte 2013. Both likely 1 and 2 costliest in the country's history.


although only a tropical storm, washi (2011) generally hit the same area causing over a +1000 deaths similiar to bopha...looks like this will be the 3rd year in a row with +1000 death toll with haiyan...
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#1248 Postby yzerfan » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:08 am

Early reports out of Palau say massive property damage, but no fatalities

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-08/a ... au/5080598
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#1249 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:13 am

What we experienced. Note: Credits to the owner of this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BstGmQzW2I4

It's better if James Reynolds came here [to Cebu]. All communications in Leyte are currently down. I wonder how he's doing [and also Jim Edds]. I hope they are completely safe!
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#1250 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:41 am

Tacloban and Guiuan: These are estimated conditions. There are no weather stations nearby.

I guess due to the strength of the winds, these got broken.

Guiuan recorded sustained winds of 154 km/h at 4:00 am yesterday/Nov 08.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1251 Postby AJC3 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:42 am

cycloneye wrote:I can't believe JB said this:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 7 Nov
@HeidiCullen
Are you for real? Of course water is warm, NO typhoons within 100 miles of this since 2008. No stirring of water



Dr. Cullen was simply re-tweeting what was originally sent out by NOAA. No reason at all for JB to jump down her throat like that. But that's just his MO. It's really no wonder why JB is reviled and scoffed at by so many people in the met industry. Unfortunately, I don't see him giving up his schtick of using Twitter as an anti-AGW bully pulpit anytime soon.
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#1252 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:48 am

Did you guys watch the video of a concrete church being torn up by violents winds in Palo Leyte? I am lookong for that video n youtube but I can't find it. I am convinced that is Cat5 force blowing it off.
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#1253 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:50 am

12 additional deaths confirmed in Ormoc according to Philippine Red Cross

http://inagist.com/all/399031765752225792/
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Re:

#1254 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:55 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Tacloban and Guiuan: These are estimated conditions. There are no weather stations nearby.

I guess due to the strength of the winds, these got broken.

Guiuan recorded sustained winds of 154 km/h at 4:00 am yesterday/Nov 08.



Is this based on 10-min average? I get confused by their data sometimes because they also report data on 1-min wind average.
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Re: Re:

#1255 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:00 am

dexterlabio wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Tacloban and Guiuan: These are estimated conditions. There are no weather stations nearby.

I guess due to the strength of the winds, these got broken.

Guiuan recorded sustained winds of 154 km/h at 4:00 am yesterday/Nov 08.



Is this based on 10-min average? I get confused by their data sometimes because they also report data on 1-min wind average.


They post it every hour. Probably 10-min or 1-hour.

Cebu reported at 11:00 AM 25 °C 95% humidity 992 hPa pressure [actually 970+] 6 km visibility South at 79.2 km/h / Condition Rain
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#1256 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:26 am

Tony Samson

6 hours ago via Mobile
Our latest report on tacloban: numerous people are feared dead after the astrodome sports complex which served as a shelter collapsed with lots of evacuees inside. There was a tsunami-like effect and it is reported that a ship of undetermined size was washed on top of the gaisano supermarket. Two truckloads of army soldiers from catb was met with surging flood, was washed away. Only two soldiers survived. Two housing projects near the San Juanico bridge were flooded.water in the city proper was reported to have reached at least 10 feet..vehicles were washed away like match boxes..

http://www.facebook.com/tony.samson3/po ... 6179765798
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#1257 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:33 am

I have to say GFS nailed this one. It's the first model to show Haiyan's development, and it was even at long range (384 hrs).
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#1258 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 2:44 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24878801

20 bodies found in a nearby town to Tacloman (I think Palo)
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#1259 Postby Alyono » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:06 am

report from the chasers (they survived, but not the wisest decision to chase this one)

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone

we're not going to like the official reports when they come out. This one was BAD
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#1260 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:09 am

James Reyolds, Mark and Josh are alive! Mark was injured, apparently, while they were helping rescue people at their hotel (people trapped on the first floor as the surge came in). Still waiting to hear from Jim Edds, James said he hasn't heard anything about Jim, or from him.
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