WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[Dave C]

The Ormic City first video shows the 2 sides of the typhoon with front side up to the 2 minute mark followed by the eye around 2:25 followed by the back side from 3-4 minute period. Very interesting video indeed! Thanks for the video's hurricane Bill!

[hurricanes1234]

Hi, does anyone here think that Typhoon Haiyan's pressure was lower than 895 mbar? I'd estimate around 880-885 mbar, because of its proximity to the equator. I am very interested to see your thoughts on this. Thanks!

[euro6208]

Hi, does anyone here think that Typhoon Haiyan's pressure was lower than 895 mbar? I'd estimate around 880-885 mbar, because of its proximity to the equator. I am very interested to see your thoughts on this. Thanks!

Peak intensity of 170 knots but could have been as high as 185 knots 1 min. I say YES.

Location and size of the storm might not affect it's extreme strength.

I say below 869 - 850...

[Alyono]

889mb was recorded in Guiuan

that seems about right for a 180 KT typhoon due to the ridging to the north of the system and the fast translational speed

[euro6208]

889mb was recorded in Guiuan

that seems about right for a 180 KT typhoon due to the ridging to the north of the system and the fast translational speed

Do you have any source for this 889 mb? I am very interested.

[hurricanes1234]

1. Do you think in the post-analysis, they'll lower the pressure to below 890 mbar? Or upgrade the winds to 200 mph or more?

2. When can we expect the report for Haiyan to come out?

3. My personal estimate for Haiyan at peak strength, (especially at 16:30 UTC on November 7 in my opinion) would be 180 knots and a pressure between 875-890 mbar.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

1. Do you think in the post-analysis, they'll lower the pressure to below 890 mbar? Or upgrade the winds to 200 mph or more?

2. When can we expect the report for Haiyan to come out?

3. My personal estimate for Haiyan at peak strength, (especially at 16:30 UTC on November 7 in my opinion) would be 180 knots and a pressure between 875-890 mbar.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

JT best track out in March or April next year I believe.

Well WE ALL KNOW haiyan is near or higher than 200 mph but that 895 mb is just an estimate from low biased JMA (125 knots 10 min ).

170 knots or more is equal to 858 mb or lower based on the SSHS that JT and U.S follows .

Comparing 1 min winds and 10 min pressure is terrible LOL. Many people seem to not know about the discrepancy including you lol...

I'm going with 180 knots and pressure of 850 mb based on overall 1 min...

Let's see what JT says in their final best track for 2013...






The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

These pictures are of Haiyan at 16:30 UTC on November 7th 2013. I chose this particular time because this is when its satellite presentation was most distinct (in my opinion).

[Alyono]

889mb was recorded in Guiuan

that seems about right for a 180 KT typhoon due to the ridging to the north of the system and the fast translational speed

Do you have any source for this 889 mb? I am very interested.

It's been reported from Guiuan

You also need to stop citing the old p/w relationship. It was based upon JUNK SCIENCE of inaccurate FL winds

[Alyono]

death toll has exceeded 6,000 now. its at 6009 in the philippines

[HurricaneBill]

Since naming typhoons began in 1945, only Super Typhoon Nina (1975) and possibly Typhoon Iris (1964) were deadlier than Haiyan.

Iris may have killed as many as 7,000 in Vietnam due to flooding. However, Iris was actually the first of three typhoons to hit Vietnam in rapid succession. Iris (Nov 4th), Joan (Nov 8th), and Kate (Nov 16th).

Nina (1975) struck China. Heavy rains led to the collapse of 62 dams, most notably the Banqaio Dam. It is estimated that more than 229,000 people died.

[mrbagyo]

889mb was recorded in Guiuan

that seems about right for a 180 KT typhoon due to the ridging to the north of the system and the fast translational speed

Do you have any source for this 889 mb? I am very interested.

It's been reported from Guiuan

You also need to stop citing the old p/w relationship. It was based upon JUNK SCIENCE of inaccurate FL winds

wow. PAGASA's Guiuan station was at the northern portion of the eye of Haiyan. Could the pressure be some millibars lower in Homonhon Island (still part of Guiuan) - it's closer to the central point of the eye, or was the pressure inside the eye uniform????

death toll has exceeded 6,000 now. its at 6009 in the Philippines

I think it's way higher - I won't be surprised if the government is really covering it up. the official death toll from NDRRMC is stagnant at times even if to the fact that authorities are saying that they are retrieving 20-40 cadavers a day. And as Dexter said, many are already buried without being counted since the retrieval operation is slow, they just can't wait for the authorities to remove the stinking corpse from their places.
As time goes by, the toll is slowly creeping closer to 10,000 - the preliminary estimate of death toll by the police official who was relieved from his duty because of his statements. At the same time, the toll is also slowly moving away from the estimate of the President - 2,000 - 2,500 dead.

__________________________________
"History don't repeat itself, we're the one who's repeating history"

[euro6208]

wow. PAGASA's Guiuan station was at the northern portion of the eye of Haiyan. Could the pressure be some millibars lower in Homonhon Island (still part of Guiuan) - it's closer to the central point of the eye, or was the pressure inside the eye uniform????

I can't even imagine living on those islands with winds sustained at 170 to 185 knots blowing outside!...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hi, does anyone here think that Typhoon Haiyan's pressure was lower than 895 mbar? I'd estimate around 880-885 mbar, because of its proximity to the equator. I am very interested to see your thoughts on this. Thanks!

Peak intensity of 170 knots but could have been as high as 185 knots 1 min. I say YES.

Location and size of the storm might not affect it's extreme strength.

I say below 869 - 850...

Too low. You are to bullish, euro.

Due to the strong subtropical ridge, fast movement and to its low latitude - 880 mbar is the right and reasonable estimate (for me) pressure.

Storms below 15N always have higher pressures due to the fact that the storm(s) was/were interacting with higher pressure, then that is a reason in its pressure increase. Coriolis force at this latitude is lower too as it was very low in latitude.

Without these, making landfall at the Visayas and slowing down - pressure would be about 875 mbar or lower, but never 858 mb.

Why do you make intensity estimates higher anyway and being such an enemy of the JMA?

[stormkite]

Hi, does anyone here think that Typhoon Haiyan's pressure was lower than 895 mbar? I'd estimate around 880-885 mbar, because of its proximity to the equator. I am very interested to see your thoughts on this. Thanks!

Peak intensity of 170 knots but could have been as high as 185 knots 1 min. I say YES.

Location and size of the storm might not affect it's extreme strength.

I say below 869 - 850...

Too low. You are to bullish, euro.

Due to the strong subtropical ridge, fast movement and to its low latitude - 880 mbar is the right and reasonable estimate (for me) pressure.

Storms below 15N always have higher pressures due to the fact that the storm(s) was/were interacting with higher pressure, then that is a reason in its pressure increase. Coriolis force at this latitude is lower too as it was very low in latitude.

Without these, making landfall at the Visayas and slowing down - pressure would be about 875 mbar or lower, but never 858 mb.

Why do you make intensity estimates higher anyway and being such an enemy of the JMA?

Hear hear!!!!!! xtyphooncyclonex excellent all round assessment .

[euro6208]

Bieber makes surprise visit to Philippine typhoon survivors



Kinda OT but related to the disaster...

I never liked the guy but I really appreciate for what he has done...Truly has gained my respect.

The outpouring continues...

[hurricanes1234]

Back on topic, I am happy he went to visit the suffering people.

We want joy, peace and relief back for the Filipinos!!! Remember everyone, keep them in your prayers!

[Alyono]

6033 now confirmed dead

http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/index.php?opti ... -qyolandaq

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu was also affected, especially towns of Danao City up to Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island. Also Camotes was severely affected.

Cities of Silay, Cadiz and others in Negros Province.

Iloilo and the rest of Panay Island incl. Guimaras.

Mindoro and Palawan.

Most especially the entire Leyte, Samar and Biliran islands.

This is how huge the devastation was.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan was so large that it caused strong winds over the country's capital, Manila. That place was under Storm Signal # 2, which can typically mean tropical-storm force winds.

Its second city, Cebu - suffered a lot. Typhoon-force winds destroyed signages and downed trees, houses and electric posts and caused several rivers to overflow and caused flooding over several places. Until now, there are power outages here [ENTIRE PROVINCE] that occur almost everyday due to the fact that we also get a part of our electricity from those areas badly hit by the typhoon. This was the first time I have ever experienced this, in fact, I was not able to witness Typhoon Mike/Ruping of 1990.

I was looking outside and the winds were too strong so we had to move away from the windows as it was shaking, similar to what we get from aftershocks.

Luckily we have not gotten the worst of this storm [but Northern Cebu had it, but not storm surges] and we have recovered from this.

We also offer our condolences to those who have lost greatly, especially in Leyte-Samar area-with the highest deaths and to those over the other parts of the country that were hit.

Absolutely terrifying.