WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

I just stumbled across this, online - not sure of its veracity, but it seems to fit. Really bad...

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
I've not from Jim Edds @extremestorms I hope he's OK. Surge swamped ground floor of most buildings downtown, higher right on sea
7 minutes ago

James Reynolds @typhoonfury
Mark, Josh & I are safe, evacced to Cebu on air force C130. Tacloban devastated, death & destruction everywhere #YolandaPH #Haiyan
15 minutes ago

This backs that up. https://www.facebook.com/james.reynolds.92754397?fref=ts I am very concerned about Jim Edds since he was in the Eastern part of Tacloban City. Hopefully we will hear from him soon.

JIM EDDS is alive!!! Here he is in a message.


The Weather Channel's Jim Edds, in Tacloban, said there was a desperate need for drinking water for survivors. "We need it now, we needed it 12 hours ago,"he said in a brief phone call via satellite phone

Edds added that there was a massive wall of water when the storm hit, and described the current situation as chaotic. "Relief is needed here. Now."

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013 ... hilippines

[gatorcane]

Wow for such a relatively quiet season worldwide for cyclones, Haiyan came out of nowhere. My thoughts and prayers go out to those folks impacted by this typhoon.

Is early November a climatologically favored time for typhoons as on the Atlantic side things start to slow down by November?

[mrbagyo]

Haiyan just wants to be different...from the other cat 5 of 2013 - stuck in the 140 knots max barrier by JTWC

[euro6208]

Wow for such a relatively quiet season worldwide for cyclones, Haiyan came out of nowhere. My thoughts and prayers go out to those folks impacted by this typhoon.

Is early November a climatologically favored time for typhoons as on the Atlantic side things start to slow down by November?

climatogically, typhoons can form anytime of the year. our season is year round. while the other basins hurricane seasons starts and ends, we are still in the midst of our season.

each month of the calendar has produced a typhoon.

[euro6208]

Haiyan just wants to be different...from the other cat 5 of 2013 - stuck in the 140 knots max barrier by JTWC

after the devastation of haiyan, i think it's time for JMA and JTWC to deploy recon here. it will be a valuable asset to save many lives and give accurate readings plus give meteorology a huge boost when it comes to the most powerful tropical cyclones on the planet.

it's time...

[RL3AO]

They need to get the airport operational ASAP.

[tolakram]

It's so sad to hear how many people may have been killed, again, by the wall of water that comes in front of these storms. If there's no word for surge then they need to start calling it a tsunami. Very little difference.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED WEAKENING AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES HAS THINNED. A 091219Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND
A WEAK 37 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE DESPITE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 90
TO 115 KNOTS WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH OVERALL WEAKENING TREND.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 31W
SHOULD SLOW AND TURN POLEWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR AXIS THAT IS LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. TY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AS IT TRACKS JUST OFF THE
COAST OF VIETNAM. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU
36 AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT CONTINUES TO SPREAD AFTERWARDS DUE TO
THE MODELS HANDLING THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE RECURVE INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM WITH SOME VARIANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE
TO THE OVERALL TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

I hope those in Vietnam are not underestimating this. I believe, if the track is as suggested, the storm surge could be much higher than expected for a Cat 2 storm.

[weathernerdguy]

why is this still weakening there is no shear but the water is a bit cold...

[cycloneye]

why is this still weakening there is no shear but the water is a bit cold...

The waters are not very warm as it gets closer to Vietnam and that is why is weakening.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has images from 14:00 UTC,15:00 UTC,16:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC when Haiyan was beginning to reach it's peak intensity of 170kts? I have images at 17:00 and 19:00 UTC but to make the first post of the thread even better to have for the historic perspective it will be a complete documented moment that will be remembered for many decades.

viewtopic.php?f=76&t=115958&hilit=&start=0

[mpic]

I have a question. I have read here that this is the 25th typhoon and so it makes sense that they call it Yolanda, but the name here is only an "H"?

[CrazyC83]

why is this still weakening there is no shear but the water is a bit cold...

The waters are not very warm as it gets closer to Vietnam and that is why is weakening.

Another factor is that the inner core structure was disrupted over the Philippines and it is still having trouble re-organizing, possibly due to its very large size. (Consider Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, Irene off the US East Coast.)

[Iune]

There are two naming systems in place. The PAGASA, the Philippine weather agency, names storms that come near the Philippines with a list that goes from A-Z; Yolanda was the Philippine name for the storm.

However, the official "international" name for the storm, Haiyan, comes from the WMO naming list. That list is ordered by the names of the countries in the Regional Typhoon Committee rather than by the names themselves.

[CrazyC83]

I have a question. I have read here that this is the 25th typhoon and so it makes sense that they call it Yolanda, but the name here is only an "H"?

JMA names are not alphabetical, and they also recirculate from year to year (i.e. a continuous list).

[mpic]

Thank you so much!

[cycloneye]

James Reynolds footage

[euro6208]

Any reports from Guiuan and surrounding areas?

[summersquall]

Video from Haiyan storm chaser as typhoon hits the Philippines - via YouTube user Earth Uncut TV from
http://www.breakingnews.com/

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke6ureLcpkk[/youtube]


Looks to be reorganizing.