WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1201 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:26 pm

This is simply ghastly. And to know that they had a 7.1 earthquake not too long ago. By the way, has anyone heard from our fellow member, xtyphooncyclonex?
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Re: Re:

#1202 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:31 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html

bodies are in the streets


Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.

Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.

Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.


In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)
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Re: Re:

#1203 Postby RL3AO » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:33 pm

Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)


Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.
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Re: Re:

#1204 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:44 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)


Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.


No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.

Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1205 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:50 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:This is simply ghastly. And to know that they had a 7.1 earthquake not too long ago. By the way, has anyone heard from our fellow member, xtyphooncyclonex?

Power went back. Worst typhoon I have ever experienced! My grandfather was in Tacloban and we never heard of him. Winds were howling us eve if we are far.
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#1206 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:51 pm

Fallen trees and no water. Cebu was also terribly affected... Thank God it is sunny!
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Re:

#1207 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:52 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Fallen trees and no water. Cebu was also terribly affected... Thank God it is sunny!


We are thankful that you are fine after this event.
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#1208 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:53 pm

We cannot call anyone! Cell sites in Cebu are also broken. I was able to post at 4pm because of the iPhone's wiFi.
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#1209 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:54 pm

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Re:

#1210 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:03 pm

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Effects in Cebu: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsnerNRkLTY


Thank God you are okay!!!!!
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Re: Re:

#1211 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:06 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)


Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.


No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.

Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge


That seems quite likely, but the surge area will be much larger than the wind area. Even if they missed the eyewall, there is no missing such a massive storm surge.

The pics from Ormoc (50 miles inland from the Leyte landfall) show the wind damage well. Trees debarked and buildings flattened - and that is as it was emerging back over water - clearly Category 4-5 level wind damage (I don't remember seeing debarked trees anywhere during Katrina, and even during Charley I can't remember reading about such in the landfall zone), and not even from exposure over water. That would be equivalent to such levels of damage in Houston from a Galveston landfall.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1212 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:09 pm

Vietnamese people need to start or rather, finish preparing now, as this typhoon is going to make landfall there soon.
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#1213 Postby ejeraldmc » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:09 pm

Power restored here in Batangas. Very strong wind gusts throughout the evening. Some roofing of our balcony got flown away! Batangas is not even at the direct path of the storm.
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Re: Re:

#1214 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:19 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:
In this case, there will likely be numerous killed due to wind, since we were reaching Joplin tornado levels. Often,people are now evacuating for those types of winds in tornadoes as we've seen what happened. So I wouldn't be surprised if many of the deaths this time were wind (also numerous surge as well)


Likely a higher then usual amount of wind deaths. However this is the outlier IMO. Too many die from surge/flooding compared to the attention winds/SSHS rating get beforehand.


No question this is the outlier. It's just when these extreme storms come, whether or not an area gets a surge won't matter. Total destruction and large loss of life will occur regardless.

Probably given the wind, most of the damage will be from wind in this storm, similar to Andrew despite its 17 foot surge


Wind, even in this situation, is still more survivable than a storm surge is. Hide from wind, run from surge has always been the mantra of emergency management authorities. Even the most well-constructed bunker is a deathtrap if it's overtaken by water.

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:http://news.yahoo.com/philippines-says-least-100-dead-typhoon-haiyan-014400919.html

bodies are in the streets


Surge surge surge. Water water water. Flooding flooding flooding.

Those are the words that should be mentioned over and over again before a storm hits.

Not 190 mph, category 5, and record winds.


Reports I saw before the storm suggested most of the coastal residents just didn't comprehend what a storm surge was or why they had to leave. Even the authorities - not blaming PAGASA as they did forecast a 15 foot surge - didn't seem to understand the threat well, or at least they didn't communicate it well. Think about it - in most of the Philippines, there's a sharp drop-off to the Philippine Trench right offshore, which mitigates surges. The Leyte Gulf is one of the few natural "surge traps" and at such a low latitude, strong typhoons are pretty rare in that location. I suspect it's just a foreign concept to many Philippine people. There isn't even a Tagalog word for "storm surge".

When we were talking to Stormstrike from Tacloban earlier in this thread (around Page 25) he was concerned about Haiyan, but only about the winds and maybe rain flooding, and he felt somewhat safe because his house is concrete, his trees were tripped back, and he has supplies. I asked him his elevation above sea level and he had no idea and didn't realize it was even a concern. I told him the storm surge will be like a tsunami and he freaked out. Everybody around the world understands tsunamis after all the videos of the past few years, and that's the type of visceral language that needs to be used to communicate the threat of storm surge flooding in the future.

I hope Stormstrike is safe and checks in soon, and I'm glad to see many of you others from the region are checking back in now.
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1215 Postby madness » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:21 pm

JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.

The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread

Thanks
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1216 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:23 pm

madness wrote:JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.

The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread

Thanks


Here is the 03:00 UTC warning.

Image
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#1217 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:23 pm

have to run from this type of wind. It is not really survivable.

EF5 tornadoes destroy the best of buildings. That's why people are starting to evacuate from the path of them. These winds were the same, where the max winds were
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Re: WPAC: HAIYAN - Typhoon

#1218 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:
madness wrote:JMA forecast is for Haiyan to follow the Vietnamese coastline with eventual landfall in Northern Vietnam - meaning no severe landfall.

The JTWC forecast is unavailable and the direct links are not viewable here.
Can someone copy the JTWC forecast graphic and post a follow up in this thread

Thanks


Here is the 03:00 UTC warning.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... wp3113.gif


How in the world did they get a position of 12.3N. Did they even bother looking at a satellite image? It is clearly at 13N. That is off by about 45NM!
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#1219 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:26 pm

My prayers and thoughts to everyone who had to live through this monster. I think we can argue how much preparation and which was more deadly wind or surge, but in the end when you have something as intense as Haiyan was it's just unavoidable and we knew there was going to be a death toll if not significant.

As a weather enthusiast Haiyan definitely opened doors to us westerners that understand little about this basin. It is the world's largest basin and storms like this (maybe not this kind of record breaking yearly) is much more common than we are accustomed to seeing. Perhaps this will open doors to more posters frequenting the WPAC to see these majestic storms that are amongst the most powerful than anywhere else on earth on a yearly basis.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1220 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 08, 2013 10:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:My prayers and thoughts to everyone who had to live through this monster. I think we can argue how much preparation and which was more deadly wind or surge, but in the end when you have something as intense as Haiyan was it's just unavoidable and we knew there was going to be a death toll if not significant.

As a weather enthusiast Haiyan definitely open doors to us westerners that understand little about this basin. It is the world's largest basin and storms like this (maybe not this kind of record breaking yearly) is much more common than we are accustomed to seeing. Perhaps this will open doors to more posters frequenting the WPAC to see these majestic storms that are amongst the most powerful than anywhere else on earth on a yearly basis.


Well said.
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